Analyst: iPhone 5S ‘could be first iPhone launch that doesn’t generate lines on launch day’

“Call it blasphemy, but Apple’s (AAPL) next-generation smartphone could be the first iPhone model to debut without the usual lines of buyers outside stores on launch day,” Patrick Seitz reports for Investor’s Business Daily. “‘The consumer reaction to iPhone 5S is, of course, unknowable at this point, but we worry this could be the first iPhone launch that doesn’t generate lines on launch day,’ Susquehanna Financial Group analyst Chris Caso said in a research note Wednesday.”

Seitz reports, “The upcoming iPhone 5S could disappoint, he says, and buyers might wait for the iPhone 6 next year instead.”

MacDailyNews Take: As if we haven’t heard that about iPhone 3GS and iPhone 4S, both of which became the best-selling smartphone of their time (as will iPhone 5S).

Seitz reports, “If the iPhone 5S launch disappoints, it will feed the chorus of people who think Apple lacks innovation and that the high-end smartphone market is saturated, Caso told IBD.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Silly season.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Dale S.” for the heads up.]

Related articles:
Why Apple’s new iPhone can’t lose; as with all iPhones, next-gen likely to become best-selling smartphone of all time – April 4, 2013
World’s best-selling smartphone: Apple iPhone 5; iPhone 4S #2, third place Samsung Galaxy 3 brings up rear – February 20, 2013

52 Comments

    1. How’s Chris’s track record at predicting the future been so far?

      Can’t he find something else to write about? Like the newest Android exploit that’s just been discovered? You know, write something that’s helpful to people ather than waste time speculating on unknowables? I guess not.

      1. [[ How’s Chris’s track record at predicting the future been so far? ]]

        For FQ3/2013 Earnings Report (given Tuesday afternoon) Christopher Caso ranked 54th out of 60 Pro and Amateur analysts, having the worst ranking among the Pros.

        I am an Amateur. This is how he stacked up against me in Revenue/EPS estimate performance:

        Actual Results
        Revenue $35.32 Billion
        EPS $7.47

        Gregg Thurman
        Revenue $35.400 Billion
        EPS $7.75
        Rev/EPS ranking 18th. Margin of error 2.0%

        Christopher Caso
        Revenue $32.84 Million (tied for next to last)
        EPS $6.64 (tied for next to last)
        Rev/EPS ranking 54th. Margin of error 9.1%

        There are a lot of people on this forum that are better informed than Caso.

        1. Not that I’m doubting you but curious, when did you publish that? Where?
          I just want to know for comparison for next earnings release, as a contrast to the consensus. Thanks.

  1. Well I’ll be in line at midnight again. The only way it wouldn’t generate lines is if they say: we are announcing iPhone 5S and it is available for purchase immediately. But even then, there would still be lines until they are sold completely out.

  2. Believe it. They have gotten their last dollar from me. I guess it’s back to Linux and rolling my own.

    When a senior “Genius” says “what did you just type (in Single User mode), i need to write that one down” you know something’s wrong.

    I refused to tell him, and let him know that he didn’t know bash, he had no business being a senior “Genius”.

    I guess the lug nuts have gotten too used to depending on Aqua to tell the, everything. Sheesh

    1. Well, what a childish attitude you have. The idea is to share knowledge, not to selfishly keep it to yourself. You sound like the usual kind of IT doofus who prides themselves on their lofty position as an “expert” but feels threatened at anything which might challenge that position.

      So just because the Genius was not familiar with SU command line syntax, you are self-important enough to dismiss their knowledge in other areas out of hand. If any of my kids ever adopted your attitude, I’d slap them upside the head and tell them to act their age and display a degree more humility.

      You must be fun at parties!

      =:~)

    1. And it “could” continue to another tomorrow.

      Apple “could” call the next iPhone the 6 and then you would have no lines for the 5S.

      Could… Meaningless would for analysts use.

  3. Well I’m quite happy with my iPhone 5 as I suspect many are and would anticipate the next gen iPhone 6, especially if larger models are produced, to REALLY go through the roof. If there are no lines it’s because people are much calmer about upgrades now and don’t mind waiting until after the initial surge of sales. It doesn’t mean that by the end of the quarter sales won’t still add up considerably.

    1. The next iPhone is NOT targeted at customers who currently have an iPhone 5. Those customers are still in the middle of their two-year contracts. The target audience are customers who currently own an iPhone 4S or earlier, and customers who are new to iPhone. That is a BIG group of potential customers.

      1. I have a Apple Store App on my 4S. I’ll order my next iPhone, whatever it’s called, from the comfort of my home at the first available moment. But I will pick it up at the Apple Store so I can applaud those waiting in line. There will be long lines.

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