“Call it blasphemy, but Apple’s (AAPL) next-generation smartphone could be the first iPhone model to debut without the usual lines of buyers outside stores on launch day,” Patrick Seitz reports for Investor’s Business Daily. “‘The consumer reaction to iPhone 5S is, of course, unknowable at this point, but we worry this could be the first iPhone launch that doesn’t generate lines on launch day,’ Susquehanna Financial Group analyst Chris Caso said in a research note Wednesday.”
Seitz reports, “The upcoming iPhone 5S could disappoint, he says, and buyers might wait for the iPhone 6 next year instead.”
MacDailyNews Take: As if we haven’t heard that about iPhone 3GS and iPhone 4S, both of which became the best-selling smartphone of their time (as will iPhone 5S).
Seitz reports, “If the iPhone 5S launch disappoints, it will feed the chorus of people who think Apple lacks innovation and that the high-end smartphone market is saturated, Caso told IBD.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Silly season.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Dale S.” for the heads up.]
Related articles:
Why Apple’s new iPhone can’t lose; as with all iPhones, next-gen likely to become best-selling smartphone of all time – April 4, 2013
World’s best-selling smartphone: Apple iPhone 5; iPhone 4S #2, third place Samsung Galaxy 3 brings up rear – February 20, 2013
Add one more fool to the stack
How’s Chris’s track record at predicting the future been so far?
Can’t he find something else to write about? Like the newest Android exploit that’s just been discovered? You know, write something that’s helpful to people ather than waste time speculating on unknowables? I guess not.
[[ How’s Chris’s track record at predicting the future been so far? ]]
For FQ3/2013 Earnings Report (given Tuesday afternoon) Christopher Caso ranked 54th out of 60 Pro and Amateur analysts, having the worst ranking among the Pros.
I am an Amateur. This is how he stacked up against me in Revenue/EPS estimate performance:
Actual Results
Revenue $35.32 Billion
EPS $7.47
Gregg Thurman
Revenue $35.400 Billion
EPS $7.75
Rev/EPS ranking 18th. Margin of error 2.0%
Christopher Caso
Revenue $32.84 Million (tied for next to last)
EPS $6.64 (tied for next to last)
Rev/EPS ranking 54th. Margin of error 9.1%
There are a lot of people on this forum that are better informed than Caso.
$32.84 Million
should have read:
$32.84 Billion
nice work.
Not that I’m doubting you but curious, when did you publish that? Where?
I just want to know for comparison for next earnings release, as a contrast to the consensus. Thanks.
Same here. You know, just wondering.
You’ll notice Gregg beat out Horace Dediu by a nose.
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/07/24/the-best-and-worst-apple-analysts-q3-2013-edition/
You’ll notice Gregg beat out Horace Dediu by a nose.
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/07/24/the-best-and-worst-apple-analysts-q3-2013-edition/
The height of that stack must already be approaching 1 AU!
Set the Controls for the Heart of the Sun
One of these days… I’m gonna… Hrnthna garnrhra..gt…
Careful with that axe Eugene…..errr…..I mean hannahjs.
The iPhone will still generate lines and your Droid will still freeze and crash. These are the facts of life
After Apple details it, on release day, lines will be around the block.
Let’s all brew a thermos of coffee and get in line!
I will definitely get in line just to spite.
Maybe the buyer has mature and will buy it online like I have for the last two release. Beside I want my unlock with no contract.
Patrick, shut the fuck up.
Take your own advice and make many happy.
Well I’ll be in line at midnight again. The only way it wouldn’t generate lines is if they say: we are announcing iPhone 5S and it is available for purchase immediately. But even then, there would still be lines until they are sold completely out.
Believe it. They have gotten their last dollar from me. I guess it’s back to Linux and rolling my own.
When a senior “Genius” says “what did you just type (in Single User mode), i need to write that one down” you know something’s wrong.
I refused to tell him, and let him know that he didn’t know bash, he had no business being a senior “Genius”.
I guess the lug nuts have gotten too used to depending on Aqua to tell the, everything. Sheesh
Well, what a childish attitude you have. The idea is to share knowledge, not to selfishly keep it to yourself. You sound like the usual kind of IT doofus who prides themselves on their lofty position as an “expert” but feels threatened at anything which might challenge that position.
So just because the Genius was not familiar with SU command line syntax, you are self-important enough to dismiss their knowledge in other areas out of hand. If any of my kids ever adopted your attitude, I’d slap them upside the head and tell them to act their age and display a degree more humility.
You must be fun at parties!
=:~)
and the world *could* end tomorrow.
And it “could” continue to another tomorrow.
Apple “could” call the next iPhone the 6 and then you would have no lines for the 5S.
Could… Meaningless would for analysts use.
Well I’m quite happy with my iPhone 5 as I suspect many are and would anticipate the next gen iPhone 6, especially if larger models are produced, to REALLY go through the roof. If there are no lines it’s because people are much calmer about upgrades now and don’t mind waiting until after the initial surge of sales. It doesn’t mean that by the end of the quarter sales won’t still add up considerably.
The next iPhone is NOT targeted at customers who currently have an iPhone 5. Those customers are still in the middle of their two-year contracts. The target audience are customers who currently own an iPhone 4S or earlier, and customers who are new to iPhone. That is a BIG group of potential customers.
I have a Apple Store App on my 4S. I’ll order my next iPhone, whatever it’s called, from the comfort of my home at the first available moment. But I will pick it up at the Apple Store so I can applaud those waiting in line. There will be long lines.
Patrick could have been the first analyst to write something intelligent, but he didn’t !
To paraphrase: “I’m just making shit up.”
“Seitz reports”?
Actually, Seitz speculates mindlessly.
Morons in the press. Why bother reading about it? We shall see. Yes, there will be lines.
There are two iPhone cycles, the number cycle and, a year later, the “S” cycle. Most of us have two-year contracts. I am on the “S” cycle and will be standing in line.
Exactly right–for my wife and I our two-year contracts run out next month and we’ll be ordering two new 5S (or whatever they’re called) models as soon as they are available. Our 4S phones have served us brilliantly since 2011, but it is time to move up. And for people like us, upgrading from the 4S already guarantees us a bigger screen, faster processor, a better camera, LTE data speeds (VZW), plus who knows what else may be in the mix? These “analysts”, plus many tech bloggers, convince me daily of just one thing: there are far too many people trying to make a living pounding on a keyboard in and around the tech industry. Some are clueless (but well-opinionated) and others are simply desperate for those clicks so they can survive until the next article.
Do these supposed analysts or experts actually get paid to do this? How is it possible so many Americans are struggling to find jobs but these boobs are still employed? How do they face their employers after being so wrong on all that is Apple for soooooo long?
What was his iPhone estimate for last quarter ? I’ll bet he was very surprised. So much for dwindling sales of iPhones.
The best ECO system period. Just got a Mac Mini in may and love the syncing capability between Mt. Lion and my phone which has never been synced to a Mac via iTunes/USB etc.
With Mavericks and iCloud web the enterprise market will be very ripe for the picking.
“Silly Season” ? MDN… better to call it the Tim Cook era that you continue to insist is doing just fine. Wish it were so.
Why don’t you blame Obama here like you do on Huffington Post?
FTFA: “”My thesis is that it comes next year,” he said, “earlier in the year rather than later in the year.”
He’s talking about the “iPhone 6” with a much larger screen that he believes will come out in early 2014.
1,000 monkeys with a 1,000 typewriters… at least they’re at the point where actual words are being produced.
The monkeys and their typewriters will produce valuable information exactly on a par with the incessant blatherings of writers distracted by visions of money waved in their faces by insensitive, soulless shells of human beings without moral pretense, and undeterred by any sense of caring for the human race, pursuing only their twisted self-interest and loathing for anything good that benefits them not
I have a 4S and will likely upgrade, but there other reasons besides disinterest for not standing in lines these days.
1. Apple now sell through a broader network. More locations/fewer lines
2. Online purchases are really convenient. For some, it’s not lines; it’s just going to a brick and mortar store to purchase that they dislike.
3. My 4S, as of today, does not leave me wanting for much. I could easily wait a week or two after introduction to pick up a new model. Once we see the new iPhone hardware, the lust factor may get me back in line.
The bottom LINE (pun intended) is that “No Lines” does not equal “No Sales”.
This has nothing to do with the iPhone 5s. Apple stock had a nice little bounce after the report on tues. Now they need to drive the stock back down to get people to sell before the new products are launched, so they can then get them to buy again. It’s all about the commission for the traders.
The next iPhone release is mostly for customers with iPhone 4S or earlier. iPhone 5 customers still have a year (or more) left on their contracts. And it’s for customers who are new to iPhone.
For that target group, an iPhone 5 with upgraded performance specs is ideal. That’s why Apple has used two-year “design cycles” for the iPhone since the iPhone 3G.
Why are these “analysts” not smart enough to see this obvious logic? The owners of the recordbreaking iPhone 4S will upgrade. That plus the new iPhone customers will lead to recordbreaking sales, once again.
When an analyst predicts the reception for A prodouct that has not even been introduced yet… not knowing what the specs and functionality will be ……u know he is desoerate for attention through bs…..And deserves to be catagorized as a Bozo.
Also he is in lala land by disregarding 10ns and 10s and even 100s of million 4s user who are up for an upgrade through their contracts.,, who will jump for the latest and greatest!
This trend and fashion of apple downtalk is getting ridiculous and tiring…
.. Bozo … Get a life!
Now that with more carriers are competing for our business and have brought rate plans down, I am finally looking at getting my first iPhone ever! Of course now I have to see which version, 5s or the rumored less expensive version, and since I absolutely hate lines and avoid them as much as I can, so with regard to this story if true, COOL!
Since you hate lines so much, consider visiting a Microsoft store. They would really appreciate your business, and can guarantee NO WAITING. Except when they are holding a tweenie concert, of course, in one of their Windows Phone 8 promotions. Just wait till the next day unless you really like some one like Justin Bieber or maybe hope to hit on the girls there. Ah, maybe Microsoft thought of that.
Of course there will be lines! There are lots of people on the S cycle. I jumped from the S cycle when the iPhone 5 came out, but only because of 4G.
No line for me, but I will have my order in by 12:01 AM Pacific. I thought it was about how many are sold, not how many people stand in line.