Apple’s decade: How AAPL shares can hit $500

Apple Online Store“I’m forecasting Apple to reach $500 a share. My time frame is late 2011/early 2012 as Apple stock runs up to its typical January earnings release,” Jason Schwarz, Lone Peak Asset Management analyst, writes for TheStreet.com.

“With most forecasts, the exact number isn’t nearly as important as the direction of the call, but with Apple, I do have a specific breakdown,” Schwarz writes. “Certainly, the financial crisis of 2008 derailed much of the excitement over individual stocks, as it brought down all ships with the broad market. But now that the economic environment is improving, speculative capital will return to high-growth companies that are gaining market share. Apple is one of the few companies on Wall Street to have actually grown revenue during the recession. If it was able to grow during the recession, what will it do now?”

“My forecast is for Apple to sell an average of 14.8 million iPhones per quarter in 2011. This equates to a total of 59.2 million iPhone unit sales for the year or a 17.7% share of the expected 334 million unit/year smartphone market,” Schwarz writes. “See you at Apple $500.”

Full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]

30 Comments

  1. Highly doubtful. Iphone may be the hip, cool thing now. But if it does sell at those numbers, it will just be another piece of technology. Every company has its cycle, and once a fad runs out it just goes back to the pack.

  2. If Apple continues to expand to other carriers worldwide for the iPhone (including the U.S.), those 59 million phones and 17% share in 2011 will turn out to be very conservative. Apple has 17% now. They’re sure to grab at least 20% if not more.

  3. Google has proved you don’t have to split…and they still don’t have anything you can actually touch…it’s all virtual. The hedge funds will use their top guaranteed stocks(AAPL) to level out their stinking stocks in their clients portfolios, so it will take Apple along time to get there…but maybe.

  4. “But now that the economic environment is improving…”

    Geez, I am down to working three days a week. And I feel lucky.

    Improving economic environment? Not with these crazy liberals and the Bamster trying to ruin this country with their socialized health care reform and cap and tax …two among their nutty initiatives, the list of which is as long as their typical two thousand page bills that nobody reads.

    It is a good thing that Apple is a multinational doing business all over the world. At least they can still survive if this country goes down the rat hole. And thank goodness for my 600 Apple shares. It is the only thing that is making me any money.

  5. “Could the iPhone one day grow to 70% of the smartphone market? If it did, then we would need to raise our price target to $5,000 instead of $500. The point is, there is much upside to the current 13% global market share among smartphones and the current 2.5% market share among mobile phones in general.”

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/10629249/4/apples-decade-how-it-can-hit-500.html

    Keep in mind that that crazy $5,000 is not including anything else in Apple’s research and development. That includes the Mac tablet and that BILLION DOLLAR server farm that Apple is building.

    There is a lot of unseen up side to Apple! Tsunami coming!

  6. Well the good news is that Apple broke the $200 barrier and have stayed there for a while. So a surge upwards is possible. Another 20 points and my shares would have grown 200% (or 3 fold) in the last few years.

    The iPhone success is important but so is the Mac. Breaking the 3MM barrier last quarter was amazing. Hopefully Apple will start inching up to 4MM. Apple can add value (lower cost or more features) to their products to help spur sales without compromising profit. They did this with the iPod and managed to take over the whole market with new products and aggressive pricing.

  7. I don’t know what the iPhone potential is, but where I think Apple will continue to grow is in other markets. Their innovation has brought them to here:
    1. Computers
    2. iTunes / iPod / Music
    3. iPhone
    future:
    4. TV (competing with cable/satellite with a subscription service)
    5. The next big thing

    The TV market is huge… like going into the phone market, they could easily be a big competitor in this market. Everyone has broadband and could do away with their Satelite/Cable subscriptions.

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