“For those of you you’ve been following the stunted evolution of the [Apple TV], you’ve no doubt noticed it’s suffered greatly from the company’s obvious lack of confidence as well as some uninspired marketing. But if Apple plays its cards right, 2008 could be a very big year for Apple TV,” Bryan Gardiner writes for Wired.
“There’s much work to be done, however. In July, the device was almost totally eclipsed by the iPhone launch and ensuing hype. Of course, it also didn’t help that Steve Jobs himself uttered the now infamous ‘hobby’ word at the All Things D conference, when describing Apple’s foray into people’s living rooms. Interestingly, he refused to even call the Apple TV a set-top box, opting instead for: ‘sort of a new DVD player for the internet age,'” Gardiner reports.
“Given those facts it’s not all that surprising to learn that the company has only sold 400,000 units since its debut, according to Forrester analyst James McQuivey…and ‘will be lucky to sell another 400,000 in the year-end holiday rush,'” Gardiner reports.
MacDailyNews Take: So, “only” 800,000 Apple TV units will be sold this year without hardly any marketing on Apple’s part? How many units did competing solutions sell in the past year?
Gardiner continues, “If Apple can line up the necessary deals with movie studios and tweak a few features (a big “IF”), the Apple TV is still poised to go from “hobby” to “hit.” How massive a hit, you ask? Some analysts, like Blackfriars’ Carl Howe, are predicting the company will sell upwards of 7 million Apple TVs next year.”
Here’s a list what could — and in some cases, needs to — happen in 2008 for the Apple TV to assume its rightful place among the company’s star devices:
• Movie Rentals
• HD Content
• Optical Drive
• PVR Functionality
• Larger Hard Drive
Full article here.
@ ChrissyOne
NO OPTICAL DRIVE. NOT IN LINE WITH ITUNES AND THE FUTURE.
GET IT NOW?
Add the ability to add a USB harddrive, to increase storage, and movie rentals. PVR would be nice but I don’t think apple wants that.
oh ya, (I am going to yell now)
I WANT SIMPLE GAMES ON MY APPLETV
I want to be able to play Monopoly or Risk or other classic board games on my AppleTV.
Maybe have the games run on my base station mac and allow my AppleTV to screen share or something.
Optical drive? haha
sooo early 2000s
@deepdish,
I think screen sharing on Apple TV is a great idea that would be easy enough to implement.. I’d love to beam my Mac desktop onto my living room HD flat screen and surf the web with a bluetooth keyboard and mouse..
However, first things first.. This sounds like a “down the road” type feature. Apple’s biggest challenge right now has to be to get all of the major studios in the iTunes store and then convince them that they need to allow Apple to offer up better quality content.
“being able to use Apple TV to play games I have on my computer”
Halhiker you are a smart fellow! You just mention what a lot of us are expecting. In short, Apple TV could become a great game console by simply using the computing power of a Mac or a PC.
Apple is standing where Microsoft were around 1991/92. Behind the scene, they are putting the base of a world domination. In 5 years, other companies will wake up trying to figure out if it could possibly be a Apple TV killer.
I haven’t bought AppleTV yet because I don’t own a HDTV or a tv with component port.. So I hope they will continue to sell Apple TV when I finally get a HDTV either in 2008 or 2009…
“I’m on the fence teatering on not buying it.”
You can stop squeezing your teats – it won’t change much.
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />
I’m sure Apple could make an large screen TV with AppleTV and BluRay drive if they wanted to. The question remains whether this is the right direction or whether they think it will sell well. The cost would be at least 2K so that’s not going to be an easy sale.
The inclusion of an optical drive into AppleTV makes sense in that it would allow the customer to ditch their old DVD player. Minimal cost to Apple but it would mean the unit would have to be taller.
I personally would like PVR capability but Apple would have to work with cable and satellite companies for interopterability with the third party box. Too complicated at this moment and not really Apple’s style.
I’ve just gotten an Apple TV to connect with HDMI to my Samsung 40″ 1080P HDTV.
I see the future. Its Video On Demand.
Just select YouTube and search for content. Sure its Lo-Def (for now) but one can easily see the sheer power and beauty of net video streaming over the Apple TV to your monitor of choice.
Yes, I agree that High Def content must be available too, but in the mean time, the writing is most definitley on the screen.
In the universe of video content offerings, why do you think that Apple has included a special YouTube button on the Apple TV, iPhone and iPod touch? I think it’s to demonstrate what’s possible with streaming video on demand.
The hardware and software are in place, all Apple has to do is pull the trigger and the flood gates of the new global video distribution model will open wide, with unlimited content streaming into your hungry eyes.
See it to believe it.
ps: slide shows on ATV are super-cool too! We’ve got our 2007 library on random display playing with our favorite music to review the past year.
Hobby, indeed!
…
there’s not a lot of point in putting an optical drive in AppleTV. Virtually everybody that has a TV and would spend money on an AppleTV already has a DVD player, they don’t need another one. Many of these people have a PVR already too, don’t need to cram on in AppleTV. Further, what do people use a PVR for anyway? Time shifting and ad skipping. Not needed with AppleTV, the content is already there waiting, either on the internal disk or on iTunes. No need to skip ads either as AppleTV isn’t afflicted with them.
Blu-ray? Costs too much to burden the AppleTV with. Folks that want Blu-ray can buy a player just like they did with their DVD player. People that don’t want Blu-ray don’t have to pay for it.
Bigger disk? Yeah, ok. Disk is getting cheaper, put a bigger one in when the cost comes down to the level of the current part.
Rentals, sure. As soon as Apple can negotiate a reasonable rental rate.
HD content. again, as soon as Apple can negotiate the right rental/purchase cost AND when a large enough portion of the users have the bandwidth to download HD.
Personally, though I agree it won’t happen, I think the inclusion of DVR functionality would sell alot more apple TV’s. I know I would buy one if it offered a complete TV solution. If I “purchased” every TV show I currently record from cable TV in a month, it would add up to way more than my monthly cable bill. Sure, creating a DVR would be messy to do with all the different cable providers out there, and dealing with cablecards, but ultimately the end user doesn’t care about Apples business models or how difficult something is to implement, they just want a one stop shop for all thier television viewing. It’s a hard sell to get the average joe to spend $300 on a device that even if it DID have movie rentals, he could do right from the cable box he already has. This is the same predicament Tivo is in with regards to DVRs. Yes, Tivo offers a superior experience/GUI versus a crappy scientific atlantic box, but the Tivo costs money to purchase, and its monthy payments are higher than the cable company.
A Mac mini certainly can serve to replace an Apple TV, with additional functionality such as the optical drive and flexibility to run any software. However, it also makes sense to have a device that costs half as much and has a simplified interface, if the customer simply wanted to serve up iTunes content that already exists on their “other” computer. After all, people who have big HDTV’s probably already have good DVRs and/or DVD players that are specifically designed for those purposes.
The only thing Apple TV needs to take off beyond a “mere” 800,000 units sold per year, is the iTunes Store video rental service.
ATV just needs 5.1 support should be #1. 720P is already good enough for HD. #2 should be the ability to buy right on iTunes and load them right up to your Mac.
• Movie Rentals Why not? Fit the iTS model
• HD Content This is a must have. Is everyone forgetting that by 2009 HD will be in place by law? Why not get a jump and include it now
• Optical Drive Why not? It fits with what we know about the way iTunes/iPod/iTS works. Most iPods have about 99% of their content ripped from existing collections. Can’t rip existing DVDs without an optical drive
• PVR Functionality Don’t know….. Unless satellite and cables companies made it easy to get signal out of their settop boxes, this would be hard to do. Several adapters, add more software and etc goes against the Apple easy UI/experience. Don’t see the cable and satellite companies being too willing either
• Larger Hard Drive No brainer. Ripped content, purchased iTS content and etc has to be stored somewhere. Pumping it over wireless and sucking bandwidth from what is available to surf the net with doesn’t cut it.
>MikeK wrote: Points 4 and 5 are definitely not gonna happen and are the type of requests that come from people who don’t understand what Apple TV is and is supposed to do..
Ahhh…. market a product that people don’t want and refuse to fix it by not adding what people do want. BRILLIANT!
—–
> Mac+ wrote: “people who don’t understand what Apple TV”.
You mean… people who don’t want to buy Apple TV because it doesn’t do what they want it to do.
—–
>mike_in_helsinki wrote: They just don’t get it, do they? … They are living in a past where cramming loads of features and functionalities…
Give ’em less for more is really what you want to argue is the best way to manage the Apple TV line?
Can you also imagine someone standing in the Customer Service line saying, “Yeah, this thing just does too much and gives me too much functionality and I’d like a refund please.”
Besides struggling with the movie studios to approve an HD rental scheme, could a sticking point to the download model be the ISPs and the thousands of gigabytes that would be running through their pipes?
I have no idea myself, but I could see a Verizon or a Comcast or somebody like that not be too pleased when their $19.99 per month users download a couple terabytes per month from iTunes and they don’t get any exta cut.
I think AppleTV is just a bait-and-switch tactic to sell more Minis — it worked with me.
Most of the current game consoles let you stream content from your PC. Personally I think Sony has a better chance of pulling this off than Apple. After all they are a media company and they have sold around 5 million PS3s so far this year, kind of makes Apples 800,000 look small.
Oh and the PS3 has games too.
@MPC Guy
“Ahhh…. market a product that people don’t want and refuse to fix it by not adding what people do want. BRILLIANT!”
—————————–
It’s not that people don’t want it, it’s just that people don’t quite understand it. I’ll admit, much like the Newton, Apple tv is mis-understood because it’s a bit ahead of it’s time.. It is designed for where Jobs and co. believe the future of entertainment distribution WILL BE, not where it’s at at the moment. On one had, it’s good for Apple to get a head start in the consumers consciousness, on the other hand, people think it’s a failure because it hasn’t taken off yet.. But, it will.
They’ve got some work to do, no ones’ denying it, but the work Apple needs to focus on is getting hiher quality content from all of the major studios in the iTunes store, not adding current technologies into the device. Apple doesn’t do “me too” products, they only enter a space if they believe they can make a change in it.
Just look what they did to cd’s and music. DVD’s and movies are next.
@ Mac+
Eat me. I still buy some of my music on optical discs, and I’ll probably buy movies that way for the foreseeable future as well. Nothing wrong with that. If you’re not going to let me rip my DVDs in any sort of easy way then please just build in an optical drive.
And yes, I do use handbrake to rip DVDs, but doing it directly in iTunes would be a lot better.
<i>The battle between Blu-ray and Hd-DVD will be stillborn before a winner is ever declared. The next generation format is going to be digital, not physical. That’s what Apple is betting on with Apple TV.
There is no doubt that Apple will be the first to axe optical drives from it’s computers. With iPods, iPhones and other portable devices, physical media will no longer be necessary.<.i>
These may indeed be the future. However, Apple needs to sell product today, and currently not enough consumers have the bandwidth to make these work. Not every household is ready or able to chuck their disks.
As usual, Steve is years ahead of the curve. Unless of course somebody surprises us with cheap nationwide wifi or something…
@Darknite
“• HD Content This is a must have. Is everyone forgetting that by 2009 HD will be in place by law? Why not get a jump and include it now
• Optical Drive Why not? It fits with what we know about the way iTunes/iPod/iTS works. Most iPods have about 99% of their content ripped from existing collections. Can’t rip existing DVDs without an optical drive”
—————————————
1. The resistance for HD content is coming from the content owners, not Apple. As soon as Jobs is able to negotiate deals that both parties agree on, we will see HD content.
2. You’re wrong here. When ripping Cd’s, the optical drive is on the computer NOT the iPod. Same goes for Apple TV, you can rip DVD’s on your computer, not on Apple TV. Apple TV is just like an iPod for your TV. It’s a playback device for iTunes content, and that’s all it needs to be.
@Clunker
“These may indeed be the future. However, Apple needs to sell product today, and currently not enough consumers have the bandwidth to make these work. Not every household is ready or able to chuck their disks.”
———————–
Agreed. Jobs knows this as well.. That’s probably why he labeled the product as a hobby. And besides, nearly a half million sales is not to shabby for a hobby.
Here’s a list what could — and in some cases, needs to — happen in 2008 for the Apple TV to assume its rightful place among the company’s star devices:
• Movie Rentals (This one would be good at $4 Hi-Def) I pay $5 for Hi-Def on my Cable Box PVR now so not gona pay more.
• HD Content (Have this in POD Casts now why not Movies and Music Vids)
• Optical Drive (Nope)
• PVR Functionality (Nope, video on demand baby)
• Larger Hard Drive (Or USB that will use external Drive without a hac)