“The release of the Apple TV has driven Think Equity analyst Jonathan Hoopes to reiterate his ‘Buy’ rating on Apple, citing a $120 price target on the stock,” Jonny Evans reports for Macworld UK.
“Hoopes writes: ‘We think the Apple TV/iTunes combination could become as disruptive to legacy video purchase-and-consumption behaviour as the iPod/iTunes combination has been to the traditional music business model,'” Evans reports.
Evans reports, “He predicts that the device will achieve widespread adoption and enable Apple to explore film download, TV recording and games development through the device. The device is, ‘an ideal conduit for multiple services including DVR, paid-for content (such as video-on-demand), gaming, or advertising,’ he writes, adding, ‘we identify and value these business opportunities at $5.3-$11.4 billion.'”
Full article here.
David Haskin reports for Computerworld, “Some industry experts say Apple TV, due to be released this month, will be a huge iPod-like success, doing for digital video what the iPod did for audio. Some even think Apple TV could be bigger than Apple Inc.’s much-ballyhooed iPhone, which will be released in June.”
“‘Long term, strategically, Apple TV as a revenue-generating platform is much bigger than iPhone,’ said Jeff Heynen, directing analyst for broadband and IPTV for Infonetics Research. ‘It’s a $300 device that multimillions of people will put in their homes vs. a $500 device [an iPhone] in a market that’s saturated with BlackBerries and similar things,'” Haskin reports.
Haskin reports, “In addition, there are millions of video iPods already in circulation, which will boost the chances of success for Apple TV, Heynen said. Video iPod users can load their devices with videos downloaded to Apple TV… The result will not only be significant sales of Apple TV, but also dramatically increased sales for the iTunes store to the detriment of cable and satellite providers. ‘It’s already working somewhat,’ Heynen said. ‘Disney has said that iTunes downloads of its movie Cars have reached $25 million. Given the still-low penetration of digital video recorders at this point and the fact that on-demand is starting to take shape, the potential [for Apple TV] is huge.'”
Haskin reports, “Another potential benefit to Apple is that success for Apple TV could lead to increased sales of its Mac computers. Market share of those computers has increased significantly in the last couple of years – it now has about 7.2% of overall market share – and many observers give credit to the glow created by the iPod. Apple TV could even lead to increased sales of iPods, Heynen added.”
“Over time, all the experts agreed that, when lots of video content is available and the idea of using a product like Apple TV to manage that content is widely understood, consumer behavior will change significantly,” Haskin reports.
Full article here.
Related articles:
Apple adds 720p Apple TV high-definition export mode to QuickTime – March 19, 2007
Apple planning to buy Miglia to add DVR capabilities to iTunes and Apple TV? – March 17, 2007
Miglia debuts TVMAX+ Mac PVR, TV tuner, content provider for iPod, iPhone or Apple TV – March 16, 2007
Piper Jaffray expects 2 million Apple TV units to be sold in 2007 – March 16, 2007
Apple TV ships – March 15, 2007
Solution providers expect Apple TV to be hot seller – March 15, 2007
Apple TV could help kill traditional TV ads – March 14, 2007
Miglia responds to Elgato’s termination of EyeTV license – March 14, 2007
Elgato terminates EyeTV licensing agreement with Miglia – March 12, 2007
Apple TV manufacturing ramp up to begin as early as today – March 12, 2007
Why Apple TV is more important than iPhone – March 12, 2007
Apple TV concept may eventually catch on with consumers – March 12, 2007
Apple CFO talks Apple TV, iPhone, Leopard and retail (link to full transcript) – March 07, 2007
PC Magazine: Why Apple TV matters – February 23, 2007
Bear Stearns: Apple TV and iPhone have changed the Apple story for the better – February 21, 2007
Deutsche Bank: Apple TV could take 30% of set-top box market within a few years – February 21, 2007
How do Apple TV and Elgato’s EyeTV work together? – February 16, 2007
Apple embraces casual gaming; iPhone, Apple TV to join iPod as gaming devices – February 09, 2007
Former GM of Microsoft’s Xbox Live Arcade: Apple TV to become video game console – February 08, 2007
ZDNet’s Graham: Apple TV hits a number of sweet spots, poised to make a big impact – January 25, 2007
Is Apple out to kill cable television? – January 25, 2007
RUMOR: Apple TV sales blowing away Apple’s internal expectations – January 25, 2007
Steve Jobs: Apple TV is the ‘DVD player for the 21st century’ – January 22, 2007
Apple TV beats out iPod, hits top spot on Apple Store sales chart – January 19, 2007
Report: first batch of 100,000 Apple TVs to ship this month – January 11, 2007
Steve Jobs moves to control the living room with Apple TV – January 10, 2007
Analyst Bajarin: Apple’s iPhone and Apple TV are industry game changers – January 09, 2007
Apple premieres Apple TV: movies, TV shows, music & photos on your big screen TV – January 09, 2007
RUMOR: Apple may enter video game market – December 05, 2006
Could Apple become king of game consoles? – September 26, 2006
Yes it will.
Pro Apple TV
First – Most people will be upgrading TV’s in the next three years for HD if they have not done so already, and TV’s are all going widescreen in the next couple of years. Tv shows are being shot in widescreen now but clipped for regular TV’s.
Second – Just look at all the TV shows and movies being downloaded from iTunes. These people will keep the Apple TV going for years.
Third – Add basic games and it will be even more content relying on it.
Forth – Do the Math 4 to 5 million people buy one @ $299 will be revenue of 1.1 to 1.5 billion not counting all the revenues they get from iTunes downloads. The iPhone will sell a lot but at the current price of $499 they would have to sell over 2 million or so.
Didnt Robert Smith once play for the Minnesota Vikings ?
I like peaches. Ripe, fresh ones with just a hint of fuzz. Oooooohhhh, yaaaaaahhhhhhhhh.
Phones are THE biggest tech market. tv may have some popularity, but no way will it sell more than iPhone. I swear someone’s hyping it now to be some sort of sales phenomenon only to be able to call it a failure when it “undersells.”
I think it could be since with the iPhone, regardless of popularity there will still be the issue of people with existing contracts waiting. Not just to see out a contract but also to see how it does. Apple tv is entirely new and adds on to existing products, it’s not replacing anything so could be massive. I suppose it depends how good it is on the windows side for managing pictures etc.
@ Yes Yes Yess
Excellent point about games. I had forgotten to mention that.
Think about it. You click a button on Itunes (or have it set to run automatically) and on your TV you get:
TV shows
Music
Movies
Your Photos
Your DVDs
Games
Podcasts (the new radio/television?)
I know it’s a ways off, but stretch your imaginiation. If you can buy any TV show ala carte over the internet, why would you pay for cable/satelite?
“The release of the Apple TV…” has not quite happened yet for me. Supposed to be sometime today – but not yet.
@Falkirk
Don’t you mean “mind bottling”?
On a sidereal note – If Netflix doesn’t start showing some signs of delivering their content on the internet soon, I’m going to be trimming my portfolio back a bit. In general I see this Apple iTV thing as being just another nail in traditional subscription services like Netflix.
For the price of an TV you could get two dvd/divx players and two wireless AV senders. The catches are you’d have to pay for dvd media and a decent burner when the SuperDrive starts complaining, and you’d have to encode your movies. Storing them as 4-5 movies per disk would free up your Mac as a storehouse and player, and you’d be able to beam two separate movies to any TV in the house sans any region-drm issues (stupid in a multilingual world made smaller by cheap airfares). So where does the TV come in?
If you could get a Mac mini with a large drive connected to a wireless AV sender then you could forego the dvd/divx players, disks and encoding effort (trivial on a fast Mac, not so on a mini).
The killer app for an TV could be recording, which would make better use of your sunk cable-TV costs and reduce your bandwidth requirements, which ain’t free, btw. You’d still need a receiver for every TV. Assuming you don’t live in a modern house with cable outlets in every room or have just one or two tvs, you’d also be competing for frequency slots with your wireless AV senders/Airports.
The TV may have its uses, but I don’t see it as having as broad an appeal as the iPhone.
@Mr. Peabody,
Netflix has shown some signs of delivering on the internet. Go to the site, click on help at the bottom of the page and click the first help question, “Where do I find movies I can instantly watch on my PC?”
Granted it’s not Mac compatible yet, but the signs of movement are there.
@ChrissyOne
“Want to put some money on that? =)”
I may want some of that action.
What´s your definition of success (and failure) for the ApTV and iPhone?
Not sure what good Apple TV really is. It’s cool but other than streaming videos to your tv from your computer what the hell is it? If it did DVR then I would get one but I still cannot figure out what new stuff this thing will do. So what if it sends photos or music over wireless. Who really cares about that anyway. Give me DVR, give me HD then we’ll talk. This thing really needs to work with Directtv and cable but it won’t.
@zachcube – my thoughts exactly.
@ZachCube said: Not sure what good Apple TV really is. It’s cool but other than streaming videos to your tv from your computer what the hell is it? If it did DVR then I would get one but I still cannot figure out what new stuff this thing will do. So what if it sends photos or music over wireless. Who really cares about that anyway. Give me DVR, give me HD then we’ll talk. This thing really needs to work with Directtv and cable but it won’t.
Falkirk: ZachCube, originally I was of your opinion I love TiVo and I couldn’t understand the value of buying TV shows and movies on Itunes. But if you look at the numbers, you’ll see that literally millions of people are buying TV shows that they could have watched or recorded on TV?
We’re so used to the idea of TV coming into our home via cable – cable that we pay a monthly bill for – that it’s hard to adjust to the idea of buying our shows over the internet one program at a time. I couldn’t see how you could justify paying $24 or $48 dollars for a season of Lost. But if you consider that many people are spending over $100 a month on cable – That means they could spend some $600 a year to buy TV or movie content if they got rid of their cable.
Not for everybody. But we live in a new era. We want to watch whatever we want whenever we want where ever we want. Itunes can do that. Cable TV and Video Discs cannot.
Hey, I was in Falkirk once. It’s nice. Anyway, the thing I have a problem with is that Apple TV needs to work with my cable or satellite not just iTunes. What is does is indeed great for it’s intended use but it really lacks at playing with my HDTV and DVR. I don’t see the real use other than watching something from iTunes that is not going to be DVD quality on a big screen anyway. I use Macs but what about people in the Windows world that can’t use this too? See, I just don’t quite get “IT”. Maybe if there was a subscription service for the TV shows. I will buy music but will be very selective when it comes to TV. But then again what you buy on iTunes isn’t DVD or HD quality and then you come back to square one. What is this good for?
@b ….”Apple TV works with widescreen, enhanced-definition or high-definition TVs capable of 1080i, 720p, 576p, or 480p resolutions, including popular models from these manufacturers.” A tube tv isn’t capable of any of these”…
Just to let you know, there are plenty of CRT Televisions on the market that can do all that stuff – and they do it with a considerably better picture than LCD or Plasma displays.
Although where I work we have a 103 inch Panasonic Plasma screen and it rocks.
I kid you not, It weights about 485 lbs, and its dimensions are – 95″ x 55″ x 5.6″
@ChrissyOne – I love the Cure up to a point, for me, beside a couple of later singles, it all fell apart after Three imaginary Boys” and “Seventeen Seconds.” Those two albums were great – “Faith” started the slide and then from “Primary” on …….. Arrgh.
The iPhone is so big and clunky for a cellphone, a monolith among almost pocketable devices. It’s hard to imagine anything bigger than an iPhone.