Will Apple TV be even bigger than iPhone?

Apple Store“The release of the Apple TV has driven Think Equity analyst Jonathan Hoopes to reiterate his ‘Buy’ rating on Apple, citing a $120 price target on the stock,” Jonny Evans reports for Macworld UK.

“Hoopes writes: ‘We think the Apple TV/iTunes combination could become as disruptive to legacy video purchase-and-consumption behaviour as the iPod/iTunes combination has been to the traditional music business model,'” Evans reports.

Evans reports, “He predicts that the device will achieve widespread adoption and enable Apple to explore film download, TV recording and games development through the device. The device is, ‘an ideal conduit for multiple services including DVR, paid-for content (such as video-on-demand), gaming, or advertising,’ he writes, adding, ‘we identify and value these business opportunities at $5.3-$11.4 billion.'”

Full article here.

David Haskin reports for Computerworld, “Some industry experts say Apple TV, due to be released this month, will be a huge iPod-like success, doing for digital video what the iPod did for audio. Some even think Apple TV could be bigger than Apple Inc.’s much-ballyhooed iPhone, which will be released in June.”

“‘Long term, strategically, Apple TV as a revenue-generating platform is much bigger than iPhone,’ said Jeff Heynen, directing analyst for broadband and IPTV for Infonetics Research. ‘It’s a $300 device that multimillions of people will put in their homes vs. a $500 device [an iPhone] in a market that’s saturated with BlackBerries and similar things,'” Haskin reports.

Haskin reports, “In addition, there are millions of video iPods already in circulation, which will boost the chances of success for Apple TV, Heynen said. Video iPod users can load their devices with videos downloaded to Apple TV… The result will not only be significant sales of Apple TV, but also dramatically increased sales for the iTunes store to the detriment of cable and satellite providers. ‘It’s already working somewhat,’ Heynen said. ‘Disney has said that iTunes downloads of its movie Cars have reached $25 million. Given the still-low penetration of digital video recorders at this point and the fact that on-demand is starting to take shape, the potential [for Apple TV] is huge.'”

Haskin reports, “Another potential benefit to Apple is that success for Apple TV could lead to increased sales of its Mac computers. Market share of those computers has increased significantly in the last couple of years – it now has about 7.2% of overall market share – and many observers give credit to the glow created by the iPod. Apple TV could even lead to increased sales of iPods, Heynen added.”

“Over time, all the experts agreed that, when lots of video content is available and the idea of using a product like Apple TV to manage that content is widely understood, consumer behavior will change significantly,” Haskin reports.

Full article here.

Related articles:
Apple adds 720p Apple TV high-definition export mode to QuickTime – March 19, 2007
Apple planning to buy Miglia to add DVR capabilities to iTunes and Apple TV? – March 17, 2007
Miglia debuts TVMAX+ Mac PVR, TV tuner, content provider for iPod, iPhone or Apple TV – March 16, 2007
Piper Jaffray expects 2 million Apple TV units to be sold in 2007 – March 16, 2007
Apple TV ships – March 15, 2007
Solution providers expect Apple TV to be hot seller – March 15, 2007
Apple TV could help kill traditional TV ads – March 14, 2007
Miglia responds to Elgato’s termination of EyeTV license – March 14, 2007
Elgato terminates EyeTV licensing agreement with Miglia – March 12, 2007
Apple TV manufacturing ramp up to begin as early as today – March 12, 2007
Why Apple TV is more important than iPhone – March 12, 2007
Apple TV concept may eventually catch on with consumers – March 12, 2007
Apple CFO talks Apple TV, iPhone, Leopard and retail (link to full transcript) – March 07, 2007
PC Magazine: Why Apple TV matters – February 23, 2007
Bear Stearns: Apple TV and iPhone have changed the Apple story for the better – February 21, 2007
Deutsche Bank: Apple TV could take 30% of set-top box market within a few years – February 21, 2007
How do Apple TV and Elgato’s EyeTV work together? – February 16, 2007
Apple embraces casual gaming; iPhone, Apple TV to join iPod as gaming devices – February 09, 2007
Former GM of Microsoft’s Xbox Live Arcade: Apple TV to become video game console – February 08, 2007
ZDNet’s Graham: Apple TV hits a number of sweet spots, poised to make a big impact – January 25, 2007
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RUMOR: Apple TV sales blowing away Apple’s internal expectations – January 25, 2007
Steve Jobs: Apple TV is the ‘DVD player for the 21st century’ – January 22, 2007
Apple TV beats out iPod, hits top spot on Apple Store sales chart – January 19, 2007
Report: first batch of 100,000 Apple TVs to ship this month – January 11, 2007
Steve Jobs moves to control the living room with Apple TV – January 10, 2007
Analyst Bajarin: Apple’s iPhone and Apple TV are industry game changers – January 09, 2007
Apple premieres Apple TV: movies, TV shows, music & photos on your big screen TV – January 09, 2007
RUMOR: Apple may enter video game market – December 05, 2006
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43 Comments

  1. Doubtful. iPhone is the big ticket item and meal ticket for Apple. Speaking of which, There is a discrepancy in the time shown on the iPhone on Apple’s front page. Usually the time reads 9:41, which is pretty clever because that was the exact time it was announced. But sometimes, I go to Apple’s page and the time on the iPhone reads 10:15. I am just curious why that is the case?

  2. As someone who has not as yet upgraded the entertainment hardware in my living room, i.e., plain ole TV without component inputs, I doubt I’m alone. Moving to the TV would require me to purchase other items, and I’m not ready to do that.

  3. iThink the AppleTV could be gigantic. As always, it will start slow, but the idea of technology taking advertising out of our lives is a big deal. Also, any time technology simplifies our lives, makes them easier, it is also a big deal. When the stage for both of these things is nothing short of how we consume television shows and movies, well then it goes from being a big idea to being a HUGE idea.

  4. “Video iPod users can load their devices with videos downloaded to Apple TV…”

    Huh?? Is he making this up? I thought ATV is hi def and the iPod video isn’t. So how will they use the same files? Am I missing something obvious?

  5. I’m tellin’ ya, the very minute that iTunes lets you import DVDs this game is over. I prefer buying DVDs just like I prefer buying CDs, and most of the market is with me on this. When all the media in my collection is available in once place, I shall be in heaven.

    Than all I’ll need is a gorgeous Apple 50″ LCD to hang on my wall.

    {hint}

    -c

    MW: ‘plan’ (for big things)

  6. I’d probably have bought an AppleTV (even though my only real use for it would be as a pretty front end to playing my iTunes library) if I didn’t need to buy a new TV to use it. Why oh why did they not put an S-Video or composite output on it? My Mac mini can be plugged into my TV (with a $20 dongle), so why can’t the AppleTV?

  7. “Video iPod users can load their devices with videos downloaded to Apple TV… The result will not only be significant sales of Apple TV…”

    Assuming that one would download HD media to TV/HD set from iTunesStore, those 720p+ files are an incompatible format to video on a 5G iPod.

  8. Chrissy
    I’m sure you know MTR/Visualhub or Handbrake can do that, so are you hoping it will be integrated into iTunes for importing, or able to access DVD player, like Frontrow? I am hoping for direct DVD access myself.

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