Venture capitalist Jason Calacanis predicts Tesla will turn its Optimus humanoid robot into a product bigger than Apple’s iPhone, forecasting 1 billion Optimus robots worldwide by 2036.
Speaking on the This Week in Startups podcast after watching the World Humanoid Robot Games in Beijing, Calacanis said he had recently seen an Optimus demonstration that has not been publicly shown.
“Optimus is going to be the greatest product ever made by humanity,” Calacanis said. “It will sell and provide more value than the iPhone.”
Calacanis argued Tesla’s hardware is roughly “one and a half generations” ahead of robots he watched compete in Beijing, while its “brain” is substantially more advanced. He predicted Optimus would win 35 of the competition’s 51 events.
Reuters reported that more than 2,000 robots from 666 teams competed at this year’s Games, testing everything from running and tennis to factory assembly and restaurant service. The event highlighted China’s rapid progress, although robots still struggled with practical tasks such as plugging in cables and recovering from mistakes.
Calacanis went considerably further. “I will guarantee you we will be sitting here in 10 years and there will be 1 billion Optimuses in the world,” he said. “I didn’t say 1 million, I didn’t say 10 million, I didn’t say 100 million. I said 1 billion.”
Tesla is already replacing its former Model S and Model X production area with an Optimus line — a shift CEO Elon Musk confirmed earlier this year. Tesla ended production of both vehicles to make room for robots as it committed more than $20 billion to capital spending in 2026.
Tesla’s own website now lists Fremont as producing Model 3, Model Y, and Optimus. Musk cautioned during the second-quarter earnings call that Optimus will be Tesla’s “hardest product to scale manufacturing” because the company effectively must create an entirely new supply chain.
Musk has said the Fremont line ultimately targets 1 million robots annually, with an even larger Texas operation planned later. He has warned, however, that initial production will be “agonizingly slow.
“Not everyone shares Calacanis’ certainty. Investor Ross Gerber has questioned Optimus’ near-term commercial prospects, while Unitree founder Wang Xingxing recently suggested humanoids could still be years from their “ChatGPT moment.”
MacDailyNews Take: We’ll reserve comment until we see what Optimus can do and at what price. You can listen to the full This Week in Startups podcast here.
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lol you are to funny
I love Apples to Oranges too.
Ha. Not to worry. Apple has a bunch of Hollywood awards.
These guys have no shame. All of their predictions are like liars poker. Why stop at a billion? I’m sure another analyst will soon predict 2 billion. I wonder if these will have glowing red eyes like in every Hollywood horror movie?
I bet by 2036 there won’t be enough Optimuses to build billion Optimuses even if that’s the only thing they would do.
Do no one watch I Robot?