Analyst: Apple Mac market share primed to explode; iPod Halo Effect to become increasingly important

“Apple’s move to Intel processors and its development of Boot Camp could triple its market share in the home markets, according to Needham & Co. analyst Charles Wolf,” Jonny Evans reports for Macworld UK. “He describes the dual boot and Intel move as maybe: ‘Conjuring the magic that could double its market share.’ Wolf notes his recent online survey of college students, which revealed a dramatic increase in the number of Macs Apple may potentially sell, but warns that these results may be biased because the ‘higher education market is one of the Mac’s strongholds.’ In response to these concerns, the analyst has committed further research across a sample of Windows users in the US home market.”

“Wolf reports: ‘The second survey indicates that the new ambidextrous Mac could possibly triple its share in the home market and almost double its share worldwide.’ He also anticipates a boost in sales as a result of the ‘iPod halo’. His second survey revealed that the likelihood of Windows users switching to Mac rose 8 per cent on the basis that Macs can run Windows… ‘From Apple’s perspective, the good news is that Windows users who owned iPod represented only 13 per cent of all Windows users in our survey. As this percentage increases, the iPod could play an increasingly important role in Apple’s strategy to grow its market share,'” Evans reports. “The Mac held a combined 4.2 per cent share in the US and European home markets in 2005… As a result of his analysis, Wolf states that given the market share increase described: ‘The Mac’s market share (in 2005) would have hypothetically increased to 12.2 per cent in these markets as a result of the 8 per cent share gain… The gain in the Mac’s worldwide market share would have been more subdued (from 2.3 per cent to 4.0 per cent in 2005) because the US and European home markets represent only 20 per cent of worldwide PC shipments'”

Evans reports, “‘The migration to the Mac resulting from its ability to run Windows is unlikely to kick in fully before 2008,’ [Wolf] warned investors. ‘In the meantime, Apple’s transition to Intel processors could cause customers to postpone purchases until this transition is completed in early 2007.'”

More in the full article here.

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  1. MDN: Magic word is “should”, as in “Boot Camp should encourage more windows users to make the switch to Mac.”

    If OSX 10.5 has the ability to run windows programs as is rumored, the magic word on that announcment will be what, ‘will’? ‘guarantee’?

  2. Forget triple the share, even double the share would have the competition shitting themselves. How big a company are Apple at the moment based on single digits? Any increase is massive for them, they have the massive advantage of profitability by sticking to decent margins on their products.

  3. Dreamer.

    Oh and none of his predictions are to come true until starting in 2008!!!

    So no one is buying a Mactel until the transition to Intel is complete, eh? Windows owners are saying, “Nope, ain´t buying a MacBook Pro until every Mac has intel inside.”
    Windows people are holding out all PC purchases until Vista comes out. If it positively received at all (and it will be by the main stream press) this is bad news for Apple

    Folks, that´s the word “ANAL” is in stock analyst. The guy is trying to cover his ass for earlier telling his clients to buy Apple stock at $85 and subsequently they have lost over 30% of their investment.

  4. What people want is to run their Windows programs in Mac OS X without Windows and without a significant loss of performance.

    With 3D Windows games and other DirectX reliant programs they will have to install Windows, but they want it done in a seemless, near invisible “plug in” sort of method under Mac OS X.

    If the Windows sandboxed “plug in” and Winapps gets compromised, Mac OS X will ask the user if it wants Mac OS X to jettison the corrupted data and then rebuild the partition from another encrypted partition.

    In fact Mac OS X should have this ability to rebuild the boot volume itself.

  5. What people are waiting for is the Mac Pro machines with BlueRay DVD drives.

    My sources tell me there will be a major announcement in mid August concerning Apple and Sony.

    If your in the market for a Mac Pro, wait. Also wait for purchasing a expensive/large Apple or anyone elses monitor until the new batch of Apple monitors arrives.

    1: Integrated iSight

    2: Apple DRM chip to watch the BlueRay DVD movies in full resolution.

    3: M$ monitors will most likely use a different DRM chip as they endorsing the inferior HD-DVD format.

  6. In fact despite Apple comments to the contrary, the PPC Cell processor is still a very likely candidate for the Mac Pro.

    Of course it would need 4 Cells to about equal the general purpose use of the Quad, but 32 dedicated processors would tag along for the ride.

    Apple would repeat it’s success selling massive amounts of Towers and X-Servers with the G5 processor for supercomputing and other uses.

  7. eww the thought of Win32 apps running natively on OSX is sickening. I seriously hope Leopard debuts a virtualization sandbox for running windows on top of OSX, but not actually running win32 apps where they can bring the same nuisance to MacOSX as they’ve done to Windows itself. And it is almost a guarantee that OSX software itself would cease to be produced by major vendors if the Win32 apps would run instead. Which I think would be a major defeat, and not even worth introducing. I honestly can’t think Apple would be that stupid. Besides, Cocoa is infinitely more advanced and powerful than the win32 API will ever be, why throw all that down the toilet just for a little compatibility with overrated crap.

  8. These folk are guessing – like I’m the first here to note that.

    => some people are waiting for their Boot Camp Security Blanket
    -=> many Mac users yawn (or GAG) at the thought of MacWindows
    => some switchers will have started with an iPod or with iTunes
    -=> most PC iPod or iTunes users will not switch
    => some people have been holding back, waiting for the Intel Switch
    -=> some folk have been waiting for the Last PPC of a type to hold on to their Classic apps longer

    Mac sales grew less than the market grew last quarter. Partly pent-up demand on the PC side when they realized how long they would have to wait for Vista, part loss-leader pricing at Dell and HP – the market grew faster than Mac sales. But … Mac sales grew, even with their product line in significant flux, and flux generally inhibits sales. That flux is gone, for the better-selling lines, and the demand for PCs has stabilized … Mac will gain market share this quarter.

    Anyone out the do Folding@Home? A million and a half processors are involved in this process. It’s all voluntary, donated system time. About 4.5% of them are running OS X and 10.6% Linux. <u>Active</u> users are fewer, and 4.8% of them use OS X. Just one statistic suggesting that Mac is closing on 5% of the user base and Windows enjoys less than 87% of that base.

  9. I know I’m waiting for Mac Pro, or whatever they’re going to call it. I have a lovely 22 inch display so an iMac is not an option, and while a macmini would be a great option, I want something with a little more kick.

  10. Tommy Boy, I’m with you on this. I wouldn’t want a monitor with a built-in iSight unless it had a separate cable that could be ubplugged. But then, a piece of black photographic tape would do the job too…

  11. It is bound to rise (the market share that is). I have switched just a couple of weeks ago, ordered a MacBook as soon as they were out. I know many others who were waiting for it, and have now bought one – all of them first-time Mac buyers.

  12. Another useless market share speculation story nobody will remember 2 days from now. How many freaking market share news items do we need? When Market share significantly increases THAT will be news. All this is pure speculation.

    Analysts, Analysts. Analysts. Analysts…….

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