“Preorders kicked off last Friday for the new Apple Watch, and analysts across Wall Street are trying to estimate what the sales figures will look like,” Julie Verhage reports for Bloomberg.
“In an attempt to get further insight, Goldman Sachs conducted a survey of over 1,000 nationally representative U.S. consumers over the weekend, asking participants about their intentions to buy a smart watch this year,” Verhage reports. “Here’s what Goldman analyst Lindsay Drucker Mann and her team found.”
Survey is positive for Apple, negative for traditional watch brands. We surveyed a group of over 1,000 nationally representative consumers on 4/11, the day after the preorder window for Apple Watches opened. Our key insights include: (1) encouraging initial demand, with +11% of iPhone users “very likely” to purchase an Apple Watch this year, (2) regular watch wearers are among the most likely to order an Apple or other smart watch, suggesting high displacement rates for traditional watches from smart watch adoption, (3) young consumers are substantially more likely to buy an Apple Watch than older consumers, and (4) those likely to buy a smart watch most often indicate Fossil, Seiko, Casio, Rolex, Timex, and TAG Heuer are the watch brands they wear today. — Goldman Sachs
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: The general public doesn’t get it, yet. It’s too early. Let the early adopters do what they do so well.
[This survey is] before Apple Watch lands on the wrists of friends and coworkers. That percentage will rise dramatically after Apple Watch launches. In a survey of 3,489 people conducted in April 2007, two months before Apple launched something called the “iPhone,” ChangeWave found that 9% said they were likely to buy an iPhone once it became available. Extrapolate.
Just like the tens of millions who said they didn’t want or need an iPhone, who are now on their fifth iPhone, so it’ll go with Apple Watch.
And as we wrote on March 3rd:
As people see others using Apple Pay via their Apple Watches, the device will sell itself.
Related articles:
Swiss watchmakers’ response to revolutionary Apple Watch may be too little, too late – March 30, 2015
TAG Heuer, Google and Intel team up for Swiss Android Wear ‘smartwatch’ – March 19, 2015
TAG Heuer plans smartwatch as honcho Jean-Claude Biver changes mind as Apple Watch looms – December 16, 2014
Apple Watch starts countdown on face off with Swiss industry – October 31, 2014
The fashion elite crowd around Apple Watch at Colette in Paris – September 30, 2014
Jean-Claude Biver: ‘The Apple Watch cannot compete at all with European watches’ – September 15, 2014
Jean-Claude Biver: Apple Watch ‘too feminine; looks like it was designed by a student in their first trimester’ – September 16, 2014
Barclays: Apple Watch could crush companies like Fossil – September 16, 2014
Jean-Claude Biver: ‘The Apple Watch cannot compete at all with European watches’ – September 15, 2014
Old school watch makers don’t get Apple Watch – September 12, 2014
Apple Watch, the world’s first real smartwatch, will be a massive hit – September 9, 2014
Apple iWatch designer Jony Ive: Switzerland is in deep shit – September 4, 2014
Everyone will be looking to buy something special at Christmas and guess what will be at the top of their list?
“analysts across Wall Street are trying to estimate what the sales figures will look like”
That’s a very good joke, Julie. You should do stand-up. Thanks for giving me a good laugh, this morning.
These people are really like blind men fishing on a moonless night in some dark murky water. Amazon never breaks down anything, how do analysts arrive at their numbers. AppleWatch sales aren’t going to matter much for this March quarter, so what’s the big deal of bringing it up now. Apple will give solid sales figures when it’s time.
I’d like to think I’m a nationally representative U.S. consumer. No one from GS called me :-/
(and I’m currently waiting for my Apple Watch to ship 😉 )
I’m a 68 year young senior waiting for my WATCH SPORT to arrive next Friday. So I guess I’m the exception to the seniors not interested. 😨😱😃
I’m a 67 year old iPhone 6 user waiting patiently for his Stainless Steel Apple Watch, as well.
I just ordered my new watch, another Rolex. 🙂 Sub, green face “The Hulk”. I really don’t want a watch with a blank, black face 99% of the time, that I have to take off and charge every night, where the heart rate monitor is unusable because it is inaccurate (yeah had one of those before with the same lights for measuring pulse and ditched it on eBay as it just couldn’t be relied on for accuracy), where everybody and their dog has the same watch, where it becomes next-to-worthless after a year or two, where it’s suicide to wear in the shower or for a swim, the list goes on. Sure, Apple watch will initially sell up a storm, but until a killer app or feature arrives I’m not buying. That blank, black face that your Apple Watch will sport most of the time was the deal breaker for me, so low tech that it reminded me of the very first generation of digital watches back in the 1970’s where the red LED time readout didn’t happen until you pressed a button.