“Thanks mainly to the new Lumia 900 and Nokia, Windows Phone could represent nearly 17% of the smartphones shipped in 2015, edging out Apple’s iPhone for the second-place ranking behind Android smartphones,” Matt Hamblen reports for Computerworld.
“That’s the view of analysts at IHS (formerly iSuppli) who are well aware that Windows Phone made up only 1.9% of the market for all of 2011, with Apple’s iOS at 18% and Android smartphones by all makers at 47.4%,” Hamblen reports. “(Note: Apple’s iPhone share surged to 44% in the fourth quarter, according to Nielsen and others.)”
Hamblen reports, “IHS said Thursday that Windows Phone will reach 16.7% of market share in 2015, behind first-ranked Android at 58.1% and just slightly ahead of iOS at 16.6%.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Could happen, if the courts and royalties debilitate Android to the point where Windows Phone becomes more attractive to the iPhone wannabes of the world (Samsung, HTC, etc.). We’re talking unit share here, not profit share, where Apple rules and will continue to rule regardless of the veracity of IHS’s very-much-iCal’ed prediction.
Methinks IHS’ magic 8 ball is broken. Microsoft hasn’t overtaken anyone in anything for a decade.
Most likely, Ballmer hasn’t even ‘overtaken’ his wife in over 2 years…
Gross.
The mental picture of two walruses getting frisky on the shores of Hudson Bay comes to my warped mind.
Dude… you made me regurge some of that burrito from lunch.
Damn. I just had a crowd over here watching Dancing Monkey Boy. Then I read this.
Yuck, man. Just yuck.
He overtook me at the buffet line.
Great line!
Watch out or Ploth and his right-wing righteous moralist minions will start spamming this thread with doom and gloom because Uncle Fester can’s overtake his god-given and (hopefully) female wife.
Except for Sony in gaming systems.
Methinks they’re already leading in so many markets, there’s no need to “overtake” when you’re already in the lead. Desktop OS: check. Enterprise Email: check. Gaming console & game sales: check.
For sure this article was written before the latest share results were release. Android 47% share iPhone 44% share.
Compare those figures used by IHS.
Long before MISFT’s Windows Phone gains any traction, Android will have been surpassed by iPhone.
After today’s Apple announcement, whoever is #2 will be a distant #2 by 2015.
No there’s a piece of garbage projection
I can get a good look of a T-bone by sticking my head up a Bulls a**, But I’d rather take a butchers word for it…
The Apple iPhone is the #1! smartphone! It’s unfair to lump all Android phones against the iPhone. If they compete one-on-one, iPhone is #1! Looks like some one has been drinking the electric Kool-aid again. Stevie Balmy & M$ aren’t creative enough to come up with a decent phone, much less an entire ecosystem for the phone by 2015. Where do they get these guys? How much do they pay them to write this stuff? How can I get a job doing it? 🙂
… so much as #1, #2 and #3! Of course, Android phones are #4-#50, or so.
Yes … there are more Android phones sold than iOS phones. And, yes, Apple earns more profit from their smaller market share than those other guys do from their larger share. Both facts should be taken with a grain of salt.
Please se my comments on page 2. NPD had reported earlier in the month. Apple had #1, #2, and #3 MODELS of phones. Currently Apple is #2 if you compare Apple to Android. The share for Android phones is plummeting, the share for Apple is rising. Care to take a guess who will have marketshare lead at this time next year? People want real phones! not TOY phones!
Toy phone=cheap, not mad to last or have the OS updated, and marketed to kids and adolescents=Android.
When give a choice between a new Android phone and a 3 year old model iPhone 3GS, most choose the iPhone.
Apples’s ecosystem is much better than Android’s; NO mal-ware with apps. 🙂
The Nokia Lumia 900 comes in a gorgeous 4.3″ screen. As more & more people migrate away from the 3.5″ form factor, Apple will be left holding the baby with the bath water and as a result come in 3rd place in 2015 from 1st in 2007.
It’s 2012. 2015 is three years away, so that’s three iterations of the iPhone in the future. Do you really think you can forecast that far into the future?
You’ll prove to be just as accurate as all these analysts, which is to say, not at all. You really need to get over your pathological obsession with screen sizes.
I’m sure someone can recommend a good therapist.
Phone envy?
General stupidity.
Hello idiot. You know you are just about the only fool on these pages who wants a big fat phone. Just go away and get yourself an Android supercalifragilistic or whatever and leave us alone.
How about a dick as a companion?
You may be able to make a better point if you use polite language. Perhaps your comments are better suited to another site.
Kiss my ass
Breeze, Robert is right
Same to you JD
… in case you didn’t get the message: “Robert is right.”
Stated another way: “Breeze is in the wrong”. Or “Breeze is acting like a child, pretending to be ‘aw growed up’ – and nasty.”
No … don’t care to kiss your childish butt.
Nokia’s phone has a shitty 4.3″ screen because the Android OEMs have to compensate for shrinking UI elements!
If you think Apple will sit idle and allow its competitors to out-tech them, you’ve got another think coming.
Troll.
You may actually be as clueless as IHS. Don’t forget to turn the lights out when nobody show for your celebration of Windows overtaking iPhone.
ummmm…. Did you lose your readers again?
Yeah and then some bozo company will come out with a 5.4″ screen or other nonsense. Why not just jump right to using the iPad for my phone?
Dude, give it an effing rest…
If it is zune-tangish sarcasam then it has long since lost it’s lustre. If it is serious then you have gone from lame to the point where we are embarrassed for you.
It sucks to carry one of those monstrosities around in your pocket (a fact ‘roid 4G sufferers discover after they buy it) besides you look stupih walking around holding a huge phone to your ear.
I believe Grubberhas hit the nail on the head: the manufactures know the oversized phones are awkward to carry and use, the real reason they are using that oversized form factor is because they are using not quite ready for prime time 4G chipsets that are battery hogs and the need the space for huge batteries (or they would get an hour or two of 4G talktime)
iCal it; when the new 4G chipsets are ready this spring (which have reasonable power consumption) the size of phones will magically go back down to reasonable size (like 3 1/2″)
Someone has a wee weenie.
Still masturbating, eh?
Glad you brought up the larger screen straw man theory. The first anyone has heard of this before. Brilliant NOT!
“The Nokia Lumia 900 comes in a gorgeous 4.3″ screen”
Much too small, BLN. Puny really. I need a phone with a 7″ screen.
I want an 8 inch phone but 2 inch wide, actually I want it for my wife.
Zune Tang did the sarcastic remarks better.
So it’s really a small screen tablet? Because holding a brick-sized phone up to your head just looks plain silly. Very 1980s-ish.
The DroidBots have convinced consumers they need a fat wide phone because: android phones have to SETTLE for 2nd best components. Apple has a lock on all the best stuff including custom designed chips. Apple can make a thinner phone with more features and a sharper screen. Better resolution means same real-estate on a smaller screen and still readable. If there were truth in advertising they’d call a Droid phone; Droid Toy Tweener! 🙂
Apple’s share cited incorrectly. 18% is worldwide level share, while in USA the number was close to 27-29% through the year. Also, the surge in Q4 to 44% is for USA market. Since most of people in the world could not buy iPhone 4S in Q4 even if they wanted to, Apple’s global share raised not that dramatically.
Would you mind quoting your sources for thos iPhone numbers, keeping in mind that there are 3 different iPhone models being sold in 2011.
What an amazing comeback from filing for Chapter 11 in 2014!
I love how people always discount iPad and iPod touch when discussing iOS market share.
I’m sure it will happen and sure Microsoft will be giving out alot of the phones free to get customers on that path.
Sigh! It’s the dreaded 2015 again! After countless predictions by countless pundits, tt’s now confirmed beyond all doubt that Apple will be destroyed in 2015. Nothing will remain of the company as its products plunge into the netherworld.
The only silver lining is that Apple will survive 2012, when the world is supposed to end!
I wonder if MDN has iCal’d all the prophets predicting 2015 as the year of Apple’s doom. You could have a year’s worth of stories just LOL-ing all these pundits in 2016.
Why would you want a huge 4″ phone in your pocket? I’ve seen these phones. Ugh. Huge.
Apple should stick with the size they have. Period.
These guys are like weather forecasters. They get to keep their jobs even when they’re 180 degrees off. “Jobs death the end of APPL” wrong. “iPad to fall behind Annoydroid” wrong. “Microlimp phone to usurp iPhone” wrong.
If anything, Windows Phone will take some share away from Android, because it provides an alternate to Android for smartphone makers who are too lazy and cheap to create and maintain their own in-house OS.
This “projection” is pure fantasy. In order to project something meaningful, there needs to be some type of historical data with which to base the projection. Windows Phone has failed to gain significant market share so far, so that is no basis for projecting the overtaking of iPhone in 2015. Using that data, the projection should be for Windows Phone to be gone by 2015.
And that Nokia Windows Phone is very recent (no real data)… How can it be used as a basis for projecting something happening in 2015?
MDN needs to add a “Like” button.
Nokia Lumia sales in the toilet:
http://www.electronista.com/articles/12/01/18/nokia.may.be.asked.to.lower.lumia.costs.in.uk/
Ha, ha, ha. Good one.
Ignoring multiple facts:
iPhone is still growing with no signs of a plateau.
iPhone is still rolling out on new, massive telcos (China telecom anyone?)
The neanderthal iPHone GS still sells gangbusters without a dual processor or 4 inch screen or HD camera or anything else “current.”
WinMo7 has zero traction with anyone who counts: telcos, devs, OEMs and consumers. (yes, Android patent litigation could change that somewhat)
Having a kewl gizmo isn’t enough anymore. That’s the easy part. Now, you need a massive ecosystem around the gizmo to truly compete.
These guys need to go back to trying to figure out component cost, although they weren’t real good at that either.
A total crock, to say the least!
How in the heck do these analysts come up with these predictions? Do they understand how huge iPhone 5 will be? Are they really counting on Android phones dwindling away? Are they really betting on Nokia? I don’t get it.
I could not care less if Apple’s iOS is out-sold by other companies. My attraction to the company and its products has nothing to do with market share, capitalization or anything else. I have an iPhone because I like how it works. Same thing with my MBP and my iPod. There are lots of options and these are those that work well for me, for the money I choose to spend. If I were the only person on this big, blue marble with an Apple Anything, I’d still be quite content. That I’m not the only person proves that the products are of the highest quality for a great number of us. Yay, us.
Could not have put it better.
one more time: all those Android market share numbers is nonsense.
analyst count EVERY android phone as a ‘smart’ phone.
– android market share numbers don’t even jive with carriers smart phone sales numbers because carriers break down Android phones into smart, feature and basic phone categories in their financial reports. Millions of Android phones sold (like those OMS phones in China) counted in stats can’t even run Android apps or Google services.
– Low Android web usage, profits, App sales etc (all WAY lower than iPhone) shows that not all Android phones are truly high end smart phones like the iPhone. Androids are just eating into the Symbian etc feature and basic phone markets.
Market share stats like this where they are lumping ‘cars with bicycles, scooters, roller skates and prams’ are not much use.
Market share is important. Developers develop for platform where the customers are. Macintosh struggled for years (decades) as a second-class citizen in the developers’ minds because it was such small target market, regardless of how relatively much more affluent a market it was.
iPhone is in much better position. All Apple needs to do is maintain decent share (within 10 percentage points of the top competitor) to remain more attractive to developers.
There is not doubt that the iPhone will remain the world’s most desired device. However, the world, not being able to afford a $650 phone (the lowest retail price of an unsubsidised iPhone) will shrug it off and buy a $450, $350, even $150 Android device and consider it a good trade-off. It is still a smartphone, and there still are plenty of apps for it (over quarter million today). On a scale of one to 20, with 20 being iPhone, an Android device attains the perception of 13. If you get more than half the value for less than fifth of the price, it fills like a good deal.
It is very unlikely that a Microsoft-based phone can outrun an iPhone. As great as the new ‘Metro’ WinMob OS is, it is still well behind iOS, and brand awareness is completely in the toilet. This simply cannot be rebuilt in three short years. Not if you’re Microsoft (although, if it were Steve Jobs and his team of talent, they might be able to do such a comeback; they already did one fifteen years ago).
I have no doubt that Cook and his team have a clear path ahead how to stay in front of the pack.
actually, market share measured in total hardware sales dollars is what is really important, not simple unit sales. that elemetary economic concept of course is too sophisticated for all the teen-age level “analysis” that dominates the websphere. multiply that metric by the equally important “profit margin” factor and you have “profits.” which is supposed to be the basic idea.
measured by total product sales $’s, Apple iOS is #1. and measured by total $ profits, Apple crushes everyone else.
for apps, the same holds true, except here it’s total dollars for all app sales + the total ad revenue to developers from apps.
we know iOS apps lead in total $ sales by a singificant margin. ad revenue i haven’t seen reported. that is why developers will continue to build for iOS first, and then port successful apps to Android and others too. except of course for those whose apps Apple rejects for usually (not always) good reasons. they go to Android first.
Developers don’t care how much profit Apple makes. They care about which OS users buy the most apps, theirs in particular. Android can have 95% of the market, but if their users don’t buy apps, no one will develop for it.
iOS users buy apps and developers make money. That’s what really matters.
I guess M$ software engineers are going to be busy writing apps for Windoze #? phone, because all the other developers are busy writing apps for Apple iPhone. Apple customers will actually pay money for good apps. Apple already has an ecosystem for iOS in place. Windoze has NO ecosystem in place for a NEW phone in 2015. Give me a break! Stop drinking the electric kool-aid, come back to reality. M$ will probably be out of the phone business by 2015, or will be spiraling toward bankruptcy just as RIM is doing now.
Physical keyboards! It’s all about physical keyboards!!
And 5″ screens!!!
Apple will never be able to compete!!
I can’t wait to get my hands on a Window Sony Diskman phone with 5-1/4″ screen and CD Drive!!
Microsoft: the Kiss of Death. Zune phone, whatever they call it…
Only prediction that is worse than IHS is the Aztec scholar’s prediction of the end of the world in 2012.