Average wait times for Apple’s new iPhone 18 Pro models have lengthened to 2.6 weeks across eight countries just three days into pre-orders, a jump that veteran Apple watcher Gene Munster called a historically favorable sign for demand.
Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, posted his latest tracker Monday. Lead times rose from 1.6 weeks the day before to 2.6 weeks, matching where last year’s Pro models stood at the same point in the cycle. Part of the one-day surge, he noted, came from buyers returning to their computers after pre-orders opened on Saturday rather than the usual Friday. The more important takeaway, he said, is that wait times are moving higher.
iPhone Lead Time Tracker 3 days into Pre-Orders: We’re seeing average lead times of 2.6 weeks across 8 countries. That’s in line with where the Pro models were last year.
My take: Most importantly, the lead times jumped from 1.6 weeks yesterday to 2.6 weeks today. Part of that jump is people are back in front of their computers (pre-orders started on Saturday). The important part is lead times are going up, which has historically been a favorable sign for demand.
Pre-orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max began September 12. The phones go on sale Friday, September 18. This year’s launch is unusually narrow: Apple skipped the standard iPhone 18 and iPhone Air, delaying those models until 2027 amid memory and chip shortages, and scheduled its first foldable, the iPhone Duo, for pre-order on October 16 and availability October 23. Only the two Pro models are available now, at starting prices of $1,199 and $1,299.
Some configurations, especially popular Pro Max storage and color combinations, already show delivery windows stretching into early October. That tightening inventory is what Munster’s tracker is capturing. Rising lead times have often preceded stronger-than-expected iPhone units in past cycles, which is why he flagged the move as constructive for Apple.
Not every analyst reads the same data the same way. Bank of America and JPMorgan have noted that some year-over-year comparisons look shorter than last year’s iPhone 17 Pro cycle, and GF Securities’ Jeff Pu described initial demand as “lukewarm,” citing limited spec upgrades, higher prices, and buyers who may be waiting for the Duo. Munster’s point is narrower and more sequential: the fact that waits lengthened from one day to the next still matters.
The Duo, starting at $1,999, is expected to siphon some high-end buyers who would otherwise have chosen a Pro Max. How large that substitution effect becomes will only become clear after October 16. For now, Munster’s tracker suggests the phones that are on sale are finding buyers quickly enough to push delivery dates later.
MacDailyNews Take: Munster’s data showing lengthening wait times is meaningful. The other analysts’ looking just at YoY lead times do not have enoguh data to draw any meaningful conclusions.
You cannot measure demand based on shipping times without knowing how much supply Apple has in hand… and where and how those supplies are allocated in each geographic area. – MacDailyNews, September 17, 2024
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