Wall Street climbs on hopeful signs of U.S. economic rebound

Wall Street’s major indexes edged higher in choppy trading on Wednesday, supported by technology shares as traders’ hopes were bolstered by early signs of a U.S. economic rebound.

economic reboundReuters:

Apple Inc and Microsoft Corp provided the biggest boost to all three indexes. The technology index rose 1.1%, the most among the 11 major S&P sectors.

“People are debating whether or not the low in the economy has actually been reached so they’re sticking with growth stocks and that’s technology,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at SlateStone Wealth LLC in New York.

Safe-haven gold rose nearly 1% as the number of confirmed U.S. [COVID-19] cases surpassed 3 million, affecting nearly one of every 100 Americans. California, Hawaii, Idaho, Missouri, Montana, Oklahoma and Texas broke their previous daily record highs for new infections.

MacDailyNews Take: More testing = more cases.

“In general, experts see three broad reasons for the downward trend in the rate of coronavirus deaths: testing, treatment and a shift in whom the virus is infecting,” Katherine J. Wu reports for The New York Times. “Since mid-March, when the coronavirus was declared a national emergency, diagnostic testing for the coronavirus has risen significantly. More than 600,000 tests are administered each day in the United States, up from about 100,000 per day in early spring… The increased testing has identified many more infected individuals with mild or no symptoms, driving down the overall proportion of patients who die from COVID-19.”

Increased cases ≠ increased deaths.

“Coronavirus-related hospitalizations increase with age, and elderly individuals remain some of those hardest hit by the coronavirus; patients over 65 account for eight out of 10 deaths from COVID-19, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But younger people now make up a growing proportion of cases, and they are less likely to die from the disease. In Arizona, people ages 20 to 44 now account for nearly half of all cases. In Florida, which just recorded more than 10,000 new cases in a single day, the median age of residents testing positive has dropped to 35 from 65. And in Texas, more than half of those testing positive are under the age of 50,” Wu reports.

Better treatments + improved behaviors = decreased deaths.

“Health care workers have also become more knowledgeable about promising treatments and palliative care options to combat the coronavirus and its effects,” Wu reports. “Moreover, nursing homes and other facilities that harbor vulnerable populations may be working harder to protect their residents… Experts can’t be sure, but behaviors like mask wearing, physical distancing and hygiene may also be reducing the dose of coronavirus that people encounter in the population at large”

Markets also appeared to be in a wait-and-watch mode before the beginning of the second-quarter earnings season, which kicks off next week with reports from the big Wall Street banks… “Wall Street is looking ahead to 2021 earnings and pretty much ignoring 2020,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York.

MacDailyNews Take: Hopefully, the signs point to a strong U.S. economic rebound!

Again, until we get a COVID-19 vaccine, which will hopefully come more quickly than previously thought possible as Operation Warp Speed looks to accelerate development by funding steps to proceed simultaneously versus the usual sequential process, try to be as safe as you can be – wash your hands frequently, keep your hands away from your face, wear a mask in public, practice social distancing, etc.

The CDC guidelines for how to protect yourself and others — especially older adults and people who have severe underlying medical conditions like heart or lung disease or diabetes and are at higher risk for developing serious complications from COVID-19 — are here.


    1. You are being lied to!!!

      If masks worked, why do we need social distancing?

      If social distancing worked, why do we need masks?

      If masks and social distancing work why do we need to close everything and let violent criminals out of jail????????

      Get your head our of CNN’s ass and think!!!!

        1. Guess you are still “grasping at straws” and understandably totally natural for yet another Democrat not reading the Mueller Report and instead remaining totally ignorant.

          The world has moved on from the FAKE RUSSIAN COLLUSION, but unfortunately, you have not been paying attention.

          Enjoy your ignorance…

      1. Masks and social distancing work…but they are not cure-alls..they mitigate the spread. The idea is to be cautious.

        Ironically, if one wants to reopen the economy then one should be more for masks and social distancing because that is what will allow businesses to open and actually stay open.

        Otherwise, people will see the rapid spread and voluntarily remove themselves from the economy.

        Solve the health problem and you solve the economic problem. It’s not ignore the health problem and magically the economic problem will be solved.

          1. The coronavirus is not like the common cold or yearly flu…right now without a vaccine it’s far more deadly.

            For instance, there were a total of 2,576 deaths over the 5-day period Saturday-Wednesday due to COVID-19. And right now deaths are being undercounted. That always happens until the dust settles and a true accounting can be had.

            Are you OK with that? When this was mostly preventable.

            I’m sorry but this is absurd. Other countries are doing far better than we are when we should be leading the way.

            The number of cases is skyrocketing…it’s multiplying exponentially. That’s the way this thing spreads.

            This is a big deal and right now are worst enemy is people’s ignorance in dealing with it and just wanting to pretend it’s nothing.

          2. @GoeB doesn’t that cure ALL ills? So we are doomed until we get one, right? I have to let every one know… /end sarcasm.

            Exactly GoeB… vaccines are not the end-all solution…just like the H1N1 vaccines that were created too.

          3. The “common cold” is caused by multiple types of viruses, including several coronaviruses. That is why there is no common cold vaccine.

            In the case of the annual flu, vaccines have proven to be generally effective in reducing infections, hospitalizations, and fatalities. But those viruses mutate rapidly and sometimes the strains that are chosen for the vaccine in a given year turn out to be the wrong ones, thus providing less protection.

            Get a clue, GoeB. You regularly boast about your knowledge and intellect, but your posts often contain drivel that grade schoolers could refute. This is not a partisan issue, despite that fact that you appear to see every issue with GOP tinted glasses.

            1. @KingMel “But those viruses mutate rapidly and sometimes the strains that are chosen for the vaccine in a given year turn out to be the wrong ones, thus providing less protection.”

              Actually, it has already been found that the SARS-CoV-2 virus has mutated a lot already too. That is one reason why vaccines against coronaviruses are most often not very effective, just like the flu vaccines, though there are some that have shown some (that is, SOME) effectiveness.

              In fact, the flu has at least 4 classes, labeled A, B, C, & D and all flu vaccines are created for classes A or B only but none for C & D, because at this point they have no effective solution. Which means that there are NO vaccines available for whole strains of flu viruses.

              Aside from that, there are also a whole slew of issues with vaccines in general, which is a separate discussion, but the choice to use one should always remain a personal choice, just like ANY medical treatment, as vaccines are NOT a one-size-fits-all solution.

              So don’t kid yourself about the resulting effectiveness of any vaccine that may come to market for this new strain.

      2. Masks and social distancing help to reduce the spread of the virus – IF people like the ones who posted above would decide to be part of the solution. But too many Trumpists decided to make the wearing of masks a political statement rather than a simple and practical safety measure. You chose to be obstinate and contrary over a temporary step that could have helped to reduce the need to shut down and stay home.

        Take a look at the rest of the world. The smart countries took care of things. The United States totally blew it under to so-called leadership of Trump, who claims that we have somehow “won the war” against COVID-19.

        Spare me your partisan rhetoric. Reality does not give one whit about your misplaced beliefs. The virus has no concept of human wealth or politics or privilege or beliefs. It just mindlessly infects and propagates. Unfortunately, too many people in the U.S. appear to be just about as astute as the virus.

        1. “The United States totally blew it under to so-called leadership of Trump”

          Guilt by association from a liberal incapable of critical thinking is to be expected. You binge on it, KingMe.

          So you feel good, in your Volkswagen took your drive-by shots at the administration to make yourself feel superior and righteous, oh woke Liberal.

          You are right on the USA behind other countries, but wrong on the cause.

          Guess you don’t know the Trump administration does not run the states and never heard of Constitutional states rights?

          Guess you never heard their are liberal Democrats running states that do not work with or listen to the president one iota and only oppose him. The Gold Standard Example: Early on Trump and Guv Cuomo engaged in serious conversations regarding working together. Guv expressed concern over lack of hospital beds. President directed a Navy ship outfitted with beds and renovations in the Javitz Center. They both spoke kindly about each other in the national media and that lasted only two news cycles.

          The betrayal Guv did not use one bed. Repeat, NOT ONE BED! Instead, sent Covid patients to nursing homes to die and infect staff and others.

          Bottom Line: Do not preach to us about the USA response when you are not in full command of the fair and balanced facts.

          If you can’t resist partisan pot shots at our great president like the rest of your ilk, do not use the most serious issue of our time when we should be working together. Find a different topic and for you as easy as breathing…

  1. “MacDailyNews Take: More testing = more cases.”

    Actually no. More cases and hospitalizations after states opened early. US is at nearly 3 million infected while trump is threatening to defund schools unless they open in Aug. for in person classes.

    1. To add to this, the percentage of people who test positive is an extremely important metric. In some Texas and Arizona hotspots, 20% of people being tested are positive. Roughly five months into the pandemic, having 1 in 5 people who take a test get a positive result is a terrible sign. As you expand testing, the percent positivity rate should decrease if virus spread is under control (New York now has a 1% percent positivity rate.)

      1. Actually new cases is a useless metric on its own. It turns out that 35% of positive cases are asymptomatic, which means they do not even know they are infected. Also, the vast majority of new cases are among a younger demographic, which are much more able to fight off the disease.

        The real metric is what impact is this having on the death rate….and interestingly, the number of daily deaths continues to go down in spite of the increased number of cases.

        1. Improvements in therapeutic treatments is likely helping to improve outcomes to a degree. And the demographics of those who are getting infected in recent weeks is probably skewed more towards younger people. I assume that you understand the implications of that shift – younger people have a lower likelihood of a fatal outcome from COVID-19.

          But another likely explanation is that fatalities trail infections by several weeks. The hospitals are rapidly filling to capacity in many areas and fatalities will inevitably follow. Fatalities may be at a lower rate In proportion to infections, but fatalities will still grow with infections. There is no magic that has suddenly changed the situation.

          How many people have to die in the United States before you and other deniers will admit that the Trump Administration screwed the pooch? If you and your party are unable to ever admit fault, then there is no hope for long term solutions. Stop being part of the problem.

          1. @KingMel I agree that improvements in therapeutic treatments are likely helping recovery rates but like you point out, the drops in numbers is because of the demographics that are now being more infected. THAT IS EXACTLY THE POINT!

            With all the lock downs of isolating the healthy, they have not been as exposed BUT they are also the least likely to be adversely affected. That is why ALL the rates are down.

            Also, it has already been weeks since many economies have opened up but have yet to see a meaningful change in the rates.

            You take issue with others about presenting partisan-based arguments, yet you turn around and do the same with casting your blame on the Trump admin. That is SUCH an American introspective nasal-gazing approach. All you have to do is look around the world to see that first, plenty was done by Trump BUT also that no matter what is done, this virus WILL spread.

            The unspoken premise that undergirds a lot of the current comments or actions is the belief that all deaths can be prevented and we should do so at all costs AND that there is actually some meaningful that can be done. The ONLY way to truly achieve that would be to force EVERYONE into PERMANENT isolation UNTIL there are NO MORE cases…AND that is ONLY theoretical…That is an IMPOSSIBLE task. I hope you can see that.

            We live EVERYDAY based on balancing risks. And as has been repeatedly shown by many groups, including the CDC, the current risk of dying from COVID-19 is LOWER than dying in a car accident. So, should we stop driving all cars since the risk is higher than COVID? If you have any sensibility, you will acknowledge that this is simply not practical.

            Likewise, attempting to slow the spread with social distancing and masks, is a futile exercise and is hugely controversial in its actual effectiveness. Consider that it has been described that most masks to this is like a chain-linked fence to a mosquito.

            We have all already been conditioned by other diseases that when someone is sick, we tend to stay away or take some precaution, especially if we know our health is somewhat compromised. That’s a natural instinct.

            Even so, MOST people do not know HOW to use a mask (and gloves) to prevent the spread. Every day I see people walking around touching their face, touching objects, their clothes and bags…everything! If they have any of the virus, guess what….it is getting everywhere, IN SPITE of wearing a mask and gloves. AND I have seen so many masks and gloves discarded on streets, in parks, etc….If this thing is SO deadly, where are all the biohazard disposal units?

            If you stop to think about it… these practices are futile. This virus will spread as most other coronaviruses do. We have to face the fact that this is a bad disease, but fortunately NOT so much so that we have to completely change the way we have lived. Hospitals, like ALL forms of businesses have peaks and valleys in their busyness. This happens to be a very busy time. This is not the first time nor will be the last. There are some differences where there were shortages of resources (you can NEVER anticipate ALL possibilities…ever been to a store or McDonalds and they run out of something or are short-staffed?) but most of these have now been addressed. The best we can do is to manage the sick and work at not overwhelming the systems by sustaining the resources that are needed for adequate care. And there is no sign that we are even close, even with the current spikes, like the early stages of the spread that was hitting all the vulnerable populations.

            We need to maintain perspective.

            1. As I suggest below in my own response to KingMel’s comment, there is no way to argue with anyone who can tell a big, fat, readily disprovable, and contrary to common experience lie like “ALL rates are down.”

            2. In what bloody “CONTEXT” are the curves in the hotspot cities and states for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths that are rising and becoming closer to vertical every day actually going down?

            3. @TxUser I have tired explaining it to you SO MANY times… your examples are OUT OF CONTEXT missing the forest for the trees. You isolate numbers, do not compare apples to apples, and on and on and on. Like I said, you keep having a hard time understanding it so I give up.

            4. If it is so obvious, why can’t you explain it? Every published statistic shows the situation getting worse, so why are you claiming it is getting better?

              Appeal to third parties: if you can figure out what smayer97 is saying, can you give a shot to explaining it to those of us who do not share his insight?

          2. I am tempted to just give it up, KingMel. How do you argue with folks who think that increased testing will make the situation worse? The cases exist, whether they have been observed through testing or not. The invisible cases involving asymptomatic untested individuals are just as likely to transmit the virus as the visible cases… possibly more so.

            Without testing that provides quick results, there is no way for a contact-tracing and isolation strategy to work. The only alternative becomes the blunt instrument of generalized lockdowns, unless you are willing to simply throw up your hands and let the healthcare system be overwhelmed.

            Here in Texas, it is almost impossible to obtain testing unless you can show symptoms or confirmed exposure. In some areas, testing requires hospitalization. Tests are backlogged to the point that negative results may take weeks to obtain, by which time you might have subsequently caught the virus and died. No wonder Texas is facing a renewed lockdown.

            Remind me: who was the guy who promised us four months ago that anybody who wanted a test could get one?

            Here’s a hint: it was the guy whose Vice-President announced today that there was plenty of personal protective equipment to go around if the finicky health care workers would stop objecting to being forced to reuse equipment designed to be discarded after one use only. He argued that testing is coming along just fine.

            On their reasoning, the best way to prevent their teenaged daughters from becoming unwed mothers is to deny them access to pregnancy tests.

            1. @TUser Your arguments are SO FULL of red herrings… for a “prosecutor for 30 years”you sure have not mastered the skill of logic. May have worked to get you results but sad if that is how you got them.

            2. I’m late to the party with this follow-up, but your many posts precisely describe the partisan chicanery of User and KingMe.

              Certainly you have their number and called them out REPEATEDLY, as we all have read. Yes, they dodge and weave, cherry pick facts according to their agendas, spew half-truths, conflate, extrapolate, insinuate and finally masters of not responding specifically to points made by others and immediately seek refuge in the DEFLECTION DANCE.

              Obviously they cannot engage facts or opinions toe to toe and THEY KNOW IT. So they play dishonest games only to make themselves feel better, whatever. Denial of reality and only pumping partisan agendas borders on mental illness, well, at least political mental illness.

              So, will raise a toast to ALL your awesome posts and a job well done!… 🥂

            3. USER, you need to get real and give up false memes that are so far from the truth they are laughable. The unfortunate part is you are either too stupid to know it (doubt it), or deliberately pushing Democrat Dogma over FACTS to influence elections.

              Say, self described Conservative White Male Republican living in Texas, why are you crying to KingLiberal?!? Too easy, you are of the same ilk and a pathological LIAR for YEARS about your political affiliation. Further, you are too immature to admit it and come clean. Don’t worry about it, your liberal ilk will not call you out, they sit back and enjoy the daily deceit of a well known Democrat political tactic.

              “How do you argue with folks who think that increased testing will make the situation worse?”

              Only YOU arrived at that false conclusion you made up in your alternative universe located above your eyebrows.

              “Remind me: who was the guy who promised us four months ago that anybody who wanted a test could get one?”

              Yes drama alarmist, anyone can get a test, BUT PAY CLOSE ATTENTION — not everyone needs one or wants one — including yours truly. You purposely left that part out.

              So spare us the Texas sob stories. Testing comes with SENSIBLE NEED as the President, Vice President and numerous medical professionals have said multiple times and again, not everyone needs a test.

              For the majority of citizens it will be a waste of money and time. But since you are carrying Pelosi’s water that all 350 million U.S. citizens MUST be tested because of her personal opinion delivered with such self righteous fervor, it’s understandable where you are coming from. More promotion of Democrat talking points that President Trump can’t get it done, got it. The Democrats are experts at setting up straw men a totally DISHONEST political practice.

              The good news is the virus survival rates are about 70-80% and higher in some areas. So far Covid has infected a tiny amount of the American population and pay attention, the majority recovers. The vast amount of deaths between 60-85% depending upon the state you live in, are people over 60 in nursing homes, hospitals or at home.

              Those metrics tell you the death rates from Covid past six months for the GENERAL population, not in nursing homes or hospitals, are not higher than yearly flu deaths, car accident deaths and gun deaths by themselves or combined and again, most people recover from Covid like most recover from the common flu yearly for DECADES.

              As @Smayer97 correctly pointed out, you are the master of “red herrings” and fear mongering. Mirroring your Hero Hillary you could not care less about people and I sense no empathy or caring. Cold political calculation rules in your world, please tell me I’m wrong.

              I would advise you to park the partisan crap along with selective outrage and stick to facts and encourage both parties to please work together during this crisis for the greater good.

              That said, from you that will never happen…

    2. Trump rushed opening of businesses and now we have spikes. He wants to rush opening of schools and we will get spikes. He’s so stupid because the way to reopen is to do saw with really getting people on board with things like mask wearing and social distancing. Otherwise it’s a fiasco that even hurts him more politically which is all he cares about.

      Why should anyone trust Trump when he doesn’t care a bit about them.

      1. @Wade read the research and look at the MANY countries that have opened up schools…the risk is SO SO SO low in that demographic it makes little sense to not open up schools.

        The social cost is MUCH MUCH higher to NOT open them up…nutrition, mental health short and long-term, including significant increases in suicide rates, murders, etc, financial impact because parents have to stay home, education, let alone increased violence and abuse, etc.

        We cannot be so myopic to ONLY focus on this one issue… the impact is SO SO SO MUCH BIGGER than that!

        But no one in the mainstream talks about the HUGE secondary effects, let alone is counting those numbers.

      2. “Trump rushed opening of businesses and now we have spikes.”

        Absolutely irresponsible of you to spew such 🐂💩!!! Pay close attention, the states are responsible for closings and openings and the fault lies with the governors and people not practicing social distancing. It has ZERO to do with President Trump you intellectual moron.

        “He wants to rush opening of schools and we will get spikes.”

        Again moron, that is on the state and local levels and not the President’s decision. Got it?

        Rightly so, president is simply a national cheerleader for moving forward. The overpaid teachers and their Democrat dominated unions have the worst test scores in all the G8 nation’s as the USA spends twice as much per pupil.

        Those overpaid fat cat sacred cows who are supposed to be the smartest people on the planet can’t figure how to get it done in the USA? Are you kidding me?!?

        The Europeans and Australians figured it out months ago opening their schools with no major problems.

        Of course, you won’t find that important news on the front page of the NYT, WP or cable breaking news CNN, MSNBC, ABC, NBC, CBS, et. al…


    H1N1 SWINE FLU infected almost 61 MILLION people in the US alone in 2019 (YES, the SAME one that caused a pandemic in 2009) and it has already killed between 40,000 and 60,000 this year in the same time period as supposedly COVID has…and NO ONE talks much about it then NOR NOW.

    (NOTE: even though COVID numbers are HUGELY suspect because of the way the CDC and the many parts of the world have decided to count COVID deaths… today if some dies WITH COVID but NOT BECAUSE OF COVID, they are still counted as a COVID death… this is a NEW practice started with COVID. Let that sink in for a moment………………………………….).

    People SO EASILY lose sight of the forest for the trees (partly due to our twisted and fear-mongering media that does not share ALL the relevant facts for perspective).

    The fact is that in ALL other pandemics we rely on epidemiological statistics to guide us but this year we are striving to test, test, test, test, test…. BOTH reveal SIMILAR results…statistics give fairly good approximations (close enough that the margin of error is not enough to affect actions one way or the other)….testing just gives more concrete info (though there are serious problems with the current testing, including as high as 80% FALSE Positive results or contaminated tests in some cases).

    In other words, all this testing is NOT revealing anything new that we would not otherwise know… there are MANY cases of mild and asymptomatic cases…that is what is driving the numbers now, resulting in a net overall decrease. TOTALLY EXPECTED!

    That is why the CDC released results about 6 weeks ago stating that the mortality rate of COVID is estimated at 0.26% (understanding this very dynamic), continually adjusted downward from previous results (these are NOT final numbers but are a good guide). That is the reliable work of epidemiological statistics, that has been used for decades and decades. This places the risk of dying from COVID-19 as LESS than the risk of dying in a car accident. THINK ABOUT THAT!

    Perspective people, perspective!

    1. The coronavirus is nothing like the Swine Flu. The . The death rate of H1N1 was just 0.02%. By comparison, the data to date seems to indicate that the case fatality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) for the coronavirus is about 0.5 to 1%. That’s a huge difference.

      And in the US the number of deaths from Swine Flu was pegged at 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306). And that was over a 1 year period.

      We’ve far eclipsed the number of deaths from COVID-19 and it is climbing. Then there is the hospital systems getting overwhelmed. That prevents others from getting proper care and can cause deaths and suffering.

      Bottom line: this is not to be minimized. COVID-19 has already cost us lives than the Vietnam War. The nation rightfully took notice of 3000 deaths from the Sept 11 terror attacks. This has killed far worse.

      We are a nation of over 300 million people. How many is anyone willing to sacrifice?

      We do need to get the economy and the school systems going again, but the way to do that is not to ignore the science, but to do what is needed: wear masks, socially distance, and wash hands. That is what allows the economy to open and actually stay open. The idea that we can ignore this and see the rapid spread and somehow things will get back to normal is foolish.

      1. @wade I would argue with you but you but there SO MANY problems with your argument it would take too long to unpack. You need to maintain context when you use numbers and your are all over the place.

        As for re-opening, especially schools, just look to the results in Europe that have already re-opened schools…no increases in cases, children are least affected and least likely to transmit. There is little need for ANY measures with kids. I’ll leave it at that and let you do the homework. I can point you to a good summary that Senator Paul Rand presented recently on this topic. Look it up.

        1. Your own post undermines your assertions,

          Europe was smart enough to squash the number of new infections before re-opening. The U.S. failed to do so. And Europe is on the lookout for new infections. Trump doesn’t want to know because the numbers “make him look bad.”

          So there is the smart way to handle the pandemic (most countries) and then there is the Trump/Pence way of mismanaging it (shared by a few other countries like Brazil and Russia).

    2. “ today if some dies WITH COVID but NOT BECAUSE OF COVID, they are still counted as a COVID death… this is a NEW practice started with COVID. Let that sink in for a moment………………………………….“

      Well said, and just WRONG!!!

      In addition, I also read a news
      report that reporting Covid deaths in hospitals and nursing homes bring financial windfalls. If true, a disturbing incentive to inflate the numbers…

      1. @GoeB agreed… mandates and lots of incentives…and well documented. Gov’ts and Public health departments are not even shy about it … should make people think.

    3. From Wikipedia:

      “The 2009 flu pandemic in the United States was a novel strain of the Influenza A/H1N1 virus, commonly referred to as “swine flu”, that was first detected on 15 April 2009. Later that April, both the World Health Organization and the Obama administration declared a public health emergency. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates there were 60.8 million cases, 274,000 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths in the United States due to the virus.“

      So, roughly 20x the number of infections as coronavirus and less than 1/10th of the fatalities, and that is comparing 12 months of H1N1 results with only six months of coronavirus results. Use your brain…the math is quite simple.

      1. You clearly have not read all my posts… but you are making a faulty comparison, and are guilty of taking facts out of context and cherry-picking.

        First, the number of infections for H1N1 are based after the end of the first spread and based on common epidemiological statistical analysis. It has already been pointed out many times that the rate of infection for SARS-Cov-2 is MUCH higher than is being captured, in the order of 20-50X at least. But the number of deaths will not be changed by statistical analysis since they are base on real first hand accounts of deaths. Your comparison is apples to oranges.

        Second, there have been about 4X the H1N1 related deaths THIS YEAR ALONE in the US yet hardly talked about anywhere, bringing the comparison closer to 2-3X at this time. Also, you are comparing only local data but you have to factor in worldwide data to get the full picture. As such, H1N1 death rate worked out to about 0.5% and COVID deaths are estimated at 0.26% overall, with only about 0.09% among those below 65.

        Third, there is the WHOLE issue of HOW COVID deaths are being counted…a NEW procedure not done in the past, inflating the numbers.

        Fourth, there are documented cases of up to 80% false positives of COVID.

        Fifth, there are documented cases of tests being contaminated with the virus, contributing to the false positives.

        Sixth, it has been acknowledged that the PSR tests used are not designed to test for the virus directly but look for secondary effects and then interpreted as or assumed to be COVID infections….and I can go on and on.

        One thing I need to point out….I am NOT denying that this disease is serious. I AM saying that the risk from this is so low and therefore I AM saying that there has been a spread of fear that is unwarranted now that we know so much more than we did at the very beginning.

        Perspective and context.

        1. It’s not a question of whether we read your posts. You apparently don’t read your posts. Otherwise, you would not be claiming a few paragraphs apart that (1) there are far more cases than testing shows and (2) up to 80% of the cases shown by testing are false positives. You have a very scientific-sounding line of patter, but the science is gibberish. It reminds me of a guy on here a few years ago who “refuted” climate change by arguing that sea levels aren’t rising; it’s just that every coast in the world is sinking. Sounds plausible until you think about it, like most of your line of anti-science here.

  3. And NO…. we do NOT need to WAIT for a vaccine to protect ourselves…any more than we need a vaccine for all the other several hundred known flu viruses that can kill and have killed tens of thousands every year…. (unless you are in a vulnerable category, then maybe…and then again it is a personal choice). The approach to protection is NO different than other similar flu and coronaviruses that are also responsible for common colds, etc.

    Remember that OVER 99% of ALL cases recover and 100% of them recovered WITHOUT a vaccine. COVID is NOT a death sentence.

      1. @TxUser “Ah, the anti-vax agenda finally emerges from hiding.”

        Another intelligent argument again I see… when you do not have facts, you resort to labelling…. strawman argumentation… oh bother.

        1. Yes, USER uses blanket DEFLECTION and not mature enough to argue facts point by point and certainly a clear sign you won several rounds. 👏🏻

          I don’t believe for a New York minute USER is a retired prosecutor. He would not last 30 days in the job if he prosecuted criminals with the same false statements, innuendo, half truths and deflection we read here daily.

          I suspect USER could be a Democrat operative in his thirties or forties and is still crying Hillary lost.

          Lastly, USER describing himself as a conservative Republican is the EPIC LIE around here for over five years. He hones in with precision to anyone posting truths about Democrats and has famously said numerous times, President Trump has not done anything positive for the country in his term in office. Yeah, right. That borders on political mental illness.

          All his supporters are of the far łeft ilk starting with Número Uno KingME and he is fooling NO ONE with his deceit.

          Got that FAKE CONSERVATIVE?!? You continue to LIE fine, but those of us that are honest and have a brain know better…

  4. Get a grip MDN and think very carefully when you make statements like that. You are not an epidemiologist.
    Two months ago there were 30K new cases a day. Now it is up to 60K a day. Even if the death rate decreases by 25%, there will still be more deaths because of the increased number of infected people.
    And whilst you think it is okay if young people get infected because they won’t have bad symptoms, remember that they often live or visit parents and grandparents. That alone could raise the death rate once this surge of new infections spread the virus to more vulnerable people.
    Note we are also seeing hospitals struggling with demand for ICU beds. Exactly where we were in April. A colleague of mine has just lost his uncle to COVID-19 and he said that the local hospital could not respond quick enough to save the patient.
    People are dying and all you care about that the death rate is dropping. It can take weeks for people to die from this disease and we really do not know what the consequences of this surge will have on the population.

  5. The current death count is low. We will learn, as a group of Yale(?) researchers reported the other day, that the undercount is likely 25%-35%. In other words, the current count of 130,000 deaths due to covid-19 is most likely short by about 40,000 to 50,000.

    The reason for this is that at the time of death, when the person had a heart attack or stroke and it gets reported that way on the death certificate, the underlying, real cause of death was the virus. But it gets counted as a heart attack death.

    It’s pretty easy to estimate the undercount since you just after to compare total deaths in a geographic area over several years. For example, let’s say total deaths in a county in 2016 was 1,900, and 1,875 in 2017, and 1,990 in 2018, and 2,500 in 2019. Well, you get the idea. It will be easy for health officials to go back when things are over with and determine the real loss of life due to the virus. Demographers working with administrative mortality statistics see these sorts of problems with death certificates all the time. Suicide is a perfect example where cause of death often gets misreported (undercounted).

    1. “The reason for this is that at the time of death, when the person had a heart attack or stroke and it gets reported that way on the death certificate, the underlying, real cause of death was the virus. But it gets counted as a heart attack death.”

      That is CONTRARY to the CDC mandate and this issue been has raised by MANY doctors around the country. You can actually read the CDC mandate sent out to all doctors. I have and it is VERY clear. It is right on their site. And public health departments have gone on record to acknowledge that ALL cases that have COVID associated with them are included in the COVID death count (even if only suspected via circumstantial evidence in the absence of testing, as per the CDC mandate).

      So the argument that the death count is likely under-reported is highly suspect.

      1. Die in a car crash caused by the driver with Covid having a heart attack and cause of death is listed as Covid. Makes sense to me, but i’m a liberal. LOLOLOLOLOL

        1. Steve, I might be wrong because I was only a prosecutor for thirty years, but if you shoot into a moving vehicle, causing the driver to have a heart attack and die in a crash, any jury in America will call it murder. The gunshot caused the death, even if only indirectly, because the person would still be alive if the shot were not fired. If somebody is dead because of coronavirus complications, the virus caused that death because the person would still be alive if he were not infected. Even though most people die because their heart stopped, coroners are trained to list the situation that led to that as the cause of death. In 130,000+ cases, they have determined that a coronavirus infection was the cause of death (versus 3500 to 13,500 cases a year when influenza or pneumonia is listed as the cause of death).

          1. @TxUser you are speaking out of ignorance, prosecutor or not. Go look at the CDC mandate for reporting on COVID. I have read it. Have you? Many doctors have gone on record complaining about the change in the classification of deaths…

            In Steve’s example, there is NO proof that the heart attack was cause BY COVID BUT CDC mandate is that they STILL report it as a COVID death EVEN IN THE ABSENCE of direct proof that it was the cause…they do not even have to prove that the driver HAS COVID, as long as there is circumstantial evidence.

            Did you ever get a conviction simply on circumstantial evidence and call it justice?

          2. You ARE wrong because you were only a prosecutor, but that’s too easy. Leave it a lawyer to post a response that has nothing do with reality or sense, or even the original post. You are the 99% of lawyers that give the rest a bad name

      2. Practically everything that smayer97 has posted in this chain is complete bullshit. Worse, it is the sort of lie that has been costing people their lives and will continue to do so.

        As I responded to him yesterday, the CDC is reporting that 130,000+ individual named Americans have died of Covid-19 in the last six months. Counted that same way, flu and pneumonia combined have not killed more than 13,500 individuals in any of the last six years. One year, it was only 3500. The 40-60,000 figure smayer97 keeps throwing around for seasonal flu alone is probably more accurate, but it is an estimate calculated by epidemiologists taking into account the rate of underreporting and otherwise unexplained excess deaths. We don’t know enough about this novel virus to do that sort of calculation yet, so the CDC has been tracking actual individual deaths.

        3500 deaths in twelve months is not comparable with 130,000+ deaths in six months, so seasonal flu is not comparable with Covid-19 (the H1N1 strain from a few years ago that he mentions was even less deadly than seasonal flu).

        Compounding this error is smayer97’s insistence that the only significant number to track is the death rate. A virus that puts 20% of the people who show any symptoms at all into the hospital, where they will overwhelm the system, run up massive debts, and face weeks or months of recuperation plus possible permanent effects is not harmless, no matter what authority may say otherwise. A virus that is breeding so fast that a completely asymptomatic individual can infect 3.5 others in five days, beginning a chain reaction that can infect over a thousand within a month (ten of whom might die) is not harmless.

        Anybody who can, with the online equivalent of a straight face, claim that precautions are not necessary because 130,000+ deaths in six months are less troublesome than 1/10th of that number in twelve months is a person who is willing to put tens of thousands of Americans at an unnecessary risk of death. Bullshit isn’t a strong enough term.

        1. “Practically everything that smayer97 has posted in this chain is complete bullshit.”

          Well, smayer97 hearty congrats! You have been officially elevated to USER’s list of blanket DENIALS. You have made so many excellent points USER simply can’t keep up or argue against them. He cowardly bowed out of zero discussion as he typically falls back to because he knows he can’t win and tries to make himself seem relevant and feel better. Democrat political illness Grande!

          All he has left is denial and mocking and personally have been there myself dozens of times.

          Practically everything that TxUser has posted in this chain is complete bullshit.

          What goes around comes around USER, you got that?…

  6. The ONLY thing that I WILL give you that you say is accurate is that I left out the hospitalization rate. And I apologize for leaving that out. So, for that you are absolutely correct that this needs to be included. BUT the goal of flattening the curve was achieved months ago. Based on all the new cases, the system is still not at risk of being overwhelmed.

    That said, go do your research and you will find that all the data I presented is accurate.

    As I have stated elsewhere, what most people do not realize is that the common flu is very often just as harmful, but because the flu is so common each year, we take it for granted, unless you don’t consider the tens and tens of thousands of deaths every year, let alone the survivors left with long term issues.

    And viruses do not breed. In fact they are not even a living thing…get educated. But anyone who wants to claim that what I presented is bullshit without doing the research is not worth arguing with, especially after I presented the facts.

    You are presenting arguments based on emotionalism, as you have done time and time again, and causing you to take figures out of context… which is simply just a pre-text to support your emotional response.

    It is no longer worth arguing with you since you are not willing to assimilate relevant information because it goes against the narrative that you have already committed yourself to.

    Oh well, I tried.

    1. “The goal of flattening the curve was achieved months ago.”

      Yes, by taking exactly the steps you have been arguing against all that time. Then it was unachieved through following your advice, and is rising as exponentially as it was last March.

      “Based on all the new cases, the system is still not at risk of being overwhelmed.”

      Do you think we are too stupid to read about the situation in many parts of the Sunbelt where the system is operating well past its normal capacity in “sustainable surge mode,” but caseloads are rising so rapidly that they will hit “unsustainable surge mode” within a week or two? The number of cases is rising exponentially. You obviously know what that means: If cases double in a week and nothing is done about it, the doubled number will double again, then the quadrupled number will double, ad infinitum until you (theoretically) hit herd immunity. The problem with that, of course, being all the studies showing that the most heavily affected areas in Spain (which had the highest per capita death rate) are showing about 5% of the population with antibodies, leaving at least 55% to go to reach herd immunity.

      Snide remarks about how viruses replicate rather than breed are rather beside the point, which is:

      Minimizing the threat of this disease is killing people. People like you who minimize the threat are killing people.

      1. @Txuser “The number of cases is rising exponentially. …If cases double in a week and nothing is done about it, the doubled number will double again, then the quadrupled number will double, ad infinitum until you (theoretically) hit herd immunity.”

        What sensationalist tripe. Is this how you tried to get convictions as a prosecutor, with snow jobs over the juries or judges with hyperbolic theoreticals? Oh bother.

        And I have never been against practicing common sense…we all naturally socially distance and protect ourselves from sick people. Anyway, no longer interested in arguing with you since you keep repeating the same logically fallacies. You are just not willing to listen.

        1. Assume that I am inumerate. Explain what you think “exponential growth” means, and how it differs from the curve describing caseload against time in Texas or Arizona.

          1. @TxUser A VERY SIMPLE word… C O N T E X T, a word you seem to have real trouble grasping.

            This is YOUR context… “…If cases double in a week and nothing is done about it, the doubled number will double again, then the quadrupled number will double, ad infinitum…”

            That has NO basis in reality in the C O N T E X T of epidemiology and social behaviour.

            YOUR context is pure emotionalism and sensationalism.

            1. And you did not provide an answer to why the curves describing caseload over time in Texas, Arizona, and Florida look exactly like textbook exponential growth when you are claiming that the curve was flattened months ago.

            2. @TxUser. Do I really need to explain this more?

              cases NOT = # hospitalization AND NOT = # deaths AND NOT = # SYMPTOMATIC cases.

              C O N T E X T! NO C O N T E X T = P R E – T E X T!

        2. Smayer—- ever wonder why ‘people like you’ always get low ratings. Does being downvoted all the time ever activate the few brain cells you ahve left that the majority of the peoiple here do NOT agree with your crap (or GoeB or First Then).
          Grow a brain

          1. Buster, surely after all these years you know how the voting is rigged here.
            It’s usually pretty obvious.
            (please don’t say there has never been any proof of voter fraud :-). )

            1. “You don’t want facts and truth, smayer97. You just want people to agree with your viewpoints, and most people on this forum do not.“

              KingMe, you are describing yourself perfectly to a T!

              USER threw in the towel and said everything smayer97 said is “bullshit.” I see you are seconding that 🐂💩!

              Say, USER is a self described conservative Republican and as your “woke” leftist posts confirm, are you as dishonest as he is? Answer:Yes.

              Your claim that smayer97 posts most people do not agree with his or her viewpoints based on divgeg voting is totally FALSE!

              How can you and Buster be that STUPID?!?…🤣

          2. @Buster What ratings? First, I see none here. Next, REALLY? worry about internet points? Is that what defines your self-worth and life aspirations?

            I’m simply after facts and truth…truth requires context and sound reasoning… anything else is just opinion, conjecture, and often just a lot of emotionalism and sensationalism.

            Of course, those who cannot reason resort to ad hominems instead.

            1. You don’t want facts and truth, smayer97. You just want people to agree with your viewpoints, and most people on this forum do not. Unfortunately, there are a sufficient number of people in this country who share your…shall we say, failings…to harm this country.

            2. @KingMel I don’t care if people agree with me or not. I present the facts and context as best I can (though I am not presenting a dissertation so there is bound to be gaps). People can do what they want with them but if they are going to argue, with which I have NO issues, then I do expect that there be sound reasoning backed with real facts in reality, not charged with extremism, emotionalism, faulty logic, etc. or resorting to ad homimens or the like.

              Stick to the facts WITH context…plain and simple.

          3. “Smayer—- ever wonder why ‘people like you’ always get low ratings.“

            Hey Buster, well people like me also get universal low ratings for two reasons. Dishonest voting and telling the truth. Anyone who relies on fake votes to feel good is a FOOL! What part do you not understand?…

      1. More and more I am convinced that there is NO WAY you were ever a prosecutor for 30 years… (I have been given you the benefit of the doubt until now).

        “…restricting access to pregnancy tests will eliminate unplanned births.”

        THAT attempt at “logic” using sarcasm is SO cringy it is SO BAD! Such a strawman argument. That is like saying “having more pregancy tests will increase pregancies”…. NO ONE EVER claimed that “more testing = more cases” means more testing CAUSES more cases… discovering more cases is what is implied, and most people understand/understood that…I guess some people missed that.

        Get some lessons on logic and reason, and maybe some language classes to learn idiomatic expressions, implied speech, and other nuances of the the language ….

        1. “Get some lessons on logic and reason, and maybe some language classes to learn idiomatic expressions, implied speech, and other nuances of the the language ….”

          Thank you Yosemite Sam!

          1. GeoB,

            I’m flattered that you are so obsessed with me, but you need to stop before my wife gets jealous.

            I try really hard to focus on issues and not personalities, but it is really hard when someone who should be calmly stating his opinions and supporting them with facts instead chooses to attack my character with ALL-CAPS shouts of irrational rage several times a day almost every day.

            I can assure you that I am who I claim to be, but even if I weren’t, your arguments would have no more validity than otherwise. That is why debate competitions do not allow ad hominem arguments; they are irrelevant to the issue being debated.

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