Since mid-March, 26 million more people have applied for jobless benefits in the U.S. The math from MUFG [Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group] chief economist Chis Rupkey would mean an unemployment rate of 20.6%. Rupkey points out the rate is closing in on Great Depression levels where a quarter of all jobs are lost.
The wild cards sitting here today is how the market will react to finally receiving the economic dread it has come to expect since the health pandemic erupted in early March. And then, has the market bounced too hard from the March lows on the expectation of V-shaped economic recovery later this year that may not appear, given the realities of a post pandemic world?
“I think the expectation of market participants is that we’re in the Great Depression and that in a sense, the news can’t get much worse,” said BNY Mellon chief strategist Alicia Levine on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade… Rupkey notes the stock market fell 57.7% at the worst point of the Great Depression. The S&P 500 was only down 13.3% year-to-date through Wednesday’s close of trading.
At some point soon, the market could be forced into pulling off its rose-colored glasses. Sure, extraordinary stimulus from the Federal Reserve is a major backstop to equities as history has proven again and again. But for investors to completely ignore jarring information on the economy seems absurd.
MacDailyNews Take: Oh, it’s greatly depressing alright.