Analysts see decline in Apple iPhone’s average selling price

Ryan Vlastelica for Bloomberg:

Deutsche Bank wrote that average selling prices (ASPs) for the key product category could drop between 4% and 6% in fiscal 2020, thanks to both the cheaper price of the iPhone 11 — which starts at $699, compared with last year’s iPhone XR, which started at $749 — along with reduced prices for previous generations like the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus. Analyst Jeriel Ong estimated that these models could together account for 40% of iPhone unit sales over the next 12 months…

According to a Bloomberg MODL estimate, Apple is expected to ship 182.7 million iPhones over 2020, which would represent a year-over-year decline of about 1.1%. The average selling price is expected to be $759.85, a year-over-year decline of 2.3%.

MacDailyNews Take: Apple’s emphasis on monthly payments for iPhones is clearly seen, front and center, on their online store for the first time this year which may help sales ahead of the iPhone 5G super cycle that we expect. The company likely has other tools ready to use to keep sales going — promos, bundles, etc. — so it’ll be very interesting to see how they do on iPhone revenue for the next year.

We’re most interested in how Apple’s marketing apparatus will attempt to sell iPhones (think: Camera, Camera, Camera!) in a year where many of us with iPhone X/XS/XS Max units (and even older Home-button based iPhones) may simply be on a holding pattern until iPhone 5G. — MacDailyNews, August 16, 2019


  1. Why can nobody understand that economies of scale are in play here?

    Apple has two years of producing and selling hundreds of millions of X-class iPhones and they are now reaping the benefits of lower production costs as a result. That’s why they can afford to drop the price of the 11, not because market forces are obliging them to do so.

    So many of these analysts don’t seem to understand basic economics.

    1. Nigel…had you not read the numerous articles stating the previous yr’s iPh prices were raised in acknowledgement of world smartphone sales decline? In addition, AAPL didn’t have the sales revenue from other sectors (services mainly) to cover the loss, so, iPh prices were raised?

      The key is the product margin. Apple’s margin goal is very consistent and, for the iPh, sales don’t show they “can afford” to drop the prices b/c of lower production costs, or economies of scale. Let’s not forget that besides the smartphone decline world-wide, the market is being bumped by tariffs. Also, with the prices now lower, the upgrading to the new/cheaper iPhones is down over 10% compared to the same time in the last release cycle.

      Lastly, AAPL very rarely drops prices, except in the event of “realizing” the product’s price is to high.

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