Apple seen forecasting revenue decline for iPhone launch quarter

Mark Gurman and Jeran Wittenstein for Bloomberg:

When Apple Inc. launches a new iPhone, that usually means rising revenue. Chances are that won’t happen this year.

Apple reports fiscal third-quarter results on Tuesday, but all eyes will be on its forecast for the fiscal fourth quarter. That’s when the Cupertino, California-based technology giant is expected to release new versions of its flagship handset.

Analysts expect Apple revenue to be $61 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter, down about 3% from a year earlier. During the same iPhone-launch quarters in 2018 and 2017, revenue climbed 20% and 12%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The major attraction in this year’s models lies in enhanced cameras: the two high-end models to replace the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max will include three back cameras, up from two, and a successor to the iPhone XR will include a second back camera. Beyond additional cameras, the new iPhone models will look similar to the 2018 versions, which looked like the 2017 iPhone X. Apple is planning a more extensive revamp of the iPhone with an updated design, 5G connectivity, and new augmented reality cameras for 2020.

MacDailyNews Note: Bloomberg MODL numbers:

• Q319 GAAP EPS estimate: $2.10 (range $1.79 to $2.20)
• Q319 revenue estimate: $53.33 billion (range $52 billion to $54.22 billion)
• iPhone revenue: $26.54 billion
• iPhone units: 37.2 million (Apple no longer reports)
• iPhone ASP: $710.42
• Services revenue: $11.95 billion
• Q419 revenue estimate: $61.04 billion (range $58.95 billion to $64.23 billion)
• Q419 gross margin estimate: 37.8%


  1. Someone out there is betting Apple will fall 8% on earnings. Look, I understand this talk means nothing at all, however… The mere fact that there is talk like that only shows how weak Apple is as a no-growth company. You don’t hear this type of trash talk about a stock for even a company like Tesla. No one would be stupid enough to bet against Facebook even in light of another data scandal. Tim Cook doesn’t inspire any investor confidence, at all. I’m a long-term Apple shareholder and even I don’t trust AAPL stock for any particular quarter. Tim Cook isn’t doing anything much to boost revenue and profits compared to other tech CEOs considering how much reserve cash he has to work with.

    There’s no way Services is going to offset poor iPhone sales, so even that can’t be counted on to hold Apple stock at this level. Why should there be a guessing game every quarter with Apple as to whether the stock is going up or down? There has to be something wrong with the way Apple is being run if a consensus can’t be reached one way or another. Apple continues to struggle YOY and they shouldn’t have to if they put full efforts into it.

    Anyway, good luck to fellow shareholders and hope the Apple doom doesn’t strike again this quarter. I’m set with my Apple dividends, so even if the stock goes down, I’m still getting paid. F*** Wall Street. If Google can go up 10% on earnings and Apple goes down… well, that’s just the bogus way AAPL moves.

    1. 100% Right. Cook does not inspire anyone. No one. Sh!tcan Tim Cook and watch Apple soar.

      Also a fellow shareholder, one who votes against Cook every chance he gets.

  2. Gee too bad they don’t have, say like, updated and upgradeable Macs and pro-Macs in particular out now that people want to buy to make up for shortcomings in other product lines. On the other hand why “milk the Mac for all it’s worth” when you can incompetently have it languish instead bringing down the entire company?

  3. Wow… still complaining.. after seeing all the pro mac in all the different versions…
    and bashing Tim as incompetent.. when Apple is floating around all time high..


    Best bet for those who do…
    Get on another platform.. that serves your needs at more superior level..
    And sell your stock and invest in a company u have faith in not hate so much.
    Anything else, given your Mindsets, would be foolish and nonsensical…..


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