Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple to kill the butterfly, adopt keyboard with scissor mechanism for 16-inch MacBook Pro

Apple's first 8-core MacBook Pro, the fastest Mac notebook ever, with fourth generation butterfly keyboard
Apple’s first 8-core MacBook Pro, the fastest Mac notebook ever, with fourth generation butterfly keyboard

Juli Clover for MacRumors:

Apple is planning to use a scissor mechanism rather than a butterfly mechanism for its upcoming 16-inch MacBook Pro, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said today in a note to investors that was obtained by MacRumors.

We have revised our prediction that the keyboard of the 16-inch MacBook Pro that will launch in 4Q19 will feature the scissor mechanism instead of the butterfly mechanism. The refresh versions of other MacBook models in 2020 will change to adopt the scissor mechanism keyboard, too. We estimate that shipments of MacBook models that choose scissor mechanism keyboards will reach 400k, 10mn, and 16mnunits, respectively. — Ming-Chi Kuo

Kuo believes that after the 16-inch MacBook Pro launches, future Macs coming in 2020 will also swap over to a scissor mechanism rather than a butterfly mechanism, resulting in more durable keyboards that are not as prone to failure from heat, dust and other small particulates. In a previous note, Kuo said that the scissor mechanism that Apple will use will improve the typing experience by offering longer key travel and better durability by adopting a glass fiber for a reinforced structure. A keyboard with a scissor mechanism will be thicker than the butterfly keyboard, but Kuo believes that most users won’t be able to tell the difference.

MacDailyNews Take: Ahh…

The infamous butterfly keyboard [was created] presumably in the interest of shaving off half a millimeter about which nobody gave a rat’s ass. SteveJack, MacDailyNews, April 2, 2019

Next year, Apple’s MacBook line will once again offer the world’s best hardware, including the world’s best keyboards in the traditional personal computer industry!

16 Comments

      1. HaHaHaHa!

        starting price 3500

        not 4K, not 5K, not 6K, and definitely not 8K

        but the 0.6 more size, people, good grief, wake up
        and recognize the abuse.

        there are 4K machines that are less than 2000 dollars.

        apple well build this 3500 machine using an i5…. MAN!

      1. When one has invested as much emotional hatred as they have, and pinned all their hopes and dreams upon a proven, politically motivated report written by folks far, far less than objective investigators, it’s small wonder they’re going down in flames.

        1. Keep deluding yourself. The stink of corruption around the current Administration is so thick that it slows down photons. You have swallowed the lying BS.

          I am reading the Mueller Report – about halfway through right now. And it is clear that Trump surrounded himself with con artists and corruption. He not only failed to “drain the swamp,” he filled it with sewage.

  1. Apple is making or at least trying mighty hard to make the right moves to improve the Mac line.

    Now if anybody at Apple reading this: some of us Mac users want a mid tower between the Mini and the Pro. Upgradable RAM, drives , GPU and one or two PCI slots free.

  2. I would purchase a thicker, heavier machine and go backward and load it with ports, dual batteries, space for multiple drives… fuck, why not a VCR slot! No just kidding, but I miss function over fashion and we are loaded down with macs at our large format shop. Make it a workstation level device with that level of utility. Save the sexy for another part of the line. Who knows… lots of people like a little extra cushion for the pushin, and these machines would be meant to be pushed. Just my thoughts and wishes. MacBook Port maybe? I dunno.

  3. “The infamous butterfly keyboard [was created] presumably in the interest of shaving off half a millimeter about which nobody gave a rat’s ass.”

    One sentence speaks VOLUMES! Total indictment of beancounter Cook for downgrading the quality of Apple products all in the name of the almighty dollar.

    The sooner you are gone, more the better for returning QUALITY to Apple customers…

    1. Making MacBooks thinner makes them MORE expensive to manufacture, not less. The obsession with thinness dates back to when Steve Jobs was running the company. As it happens, he did give a rat’s ass about every extra millimeter and gram. Those of us unaffected by dementia can remember the MacBook Air presentation with the Manila envelope.

      Just as there are those of us who preferred the SE form factor to a phablet, there are those who want their portable computer to be truly portable, not just transportable. Jobs was one of them. To repeat: that requires custom components and precision manufacturing that are significantly more expensive than slapping standard parts into a bigger box. A “bean counter” would go for cheap, not costly, because costs cut into profits. The only beans in this story are the ones generating gas.

      1. “Making MacBooks thinner makes them MORE expensive to manufacture, not less.”

        Well then, since you know more about Apple manufacturing than the rest of us and their cost analysis please provide the evidence to support your claim.

        Common sense dictates when you shave whatever on materials for millions of devices and products sold every year you save a ton of money. If Raisin Bran cut back on 5 less raisins per box selling millions of boxes a year you save a ton of money. What part of this do you not understand?

        But wait, possibly you are saying saving tons of money on materials is totally NEGATED by the manufacturing process and in the end costs more. Is that correct?

        I won’t believe a word until I see the financial evidence. Typical opinion for most of your posts doesn’t cut it anymore.

        Just the facts, Jack!…

        1. Am I saying that the R&D, engineering, and precision manufacturing costs for small custom components machined to precise tolerances offset the extra cost of raw materials for using large generic components that can fit loosely in a larger enclosure? Absolutely.

          They don’t stamp iPhones from plastic sheets. They are carefully assembled from components that are assembled from smaller components for several generations back. The cost of the raw materials for the basic parts at the base of the pyramid is not a dominant factor in the cost of the finished device.

          Let us assume that the cost of a finished iPhone is 70% component cost and 30% for everything else (that’s fairly typical in the electronics industry but is higher for premium devices). Let us further assume that same ratio for the top-level components, the medium-level components, and the base-level parts built from raw materials (there are probably more than four levels in the real iPhone pyramid, but let’s give your notion the benefit of the doubt). That means that raw materials are 0.7 * 0.7 * 0.7 * 0.7 = 24% of the total cost of the finished device at an absolute maximum.

    2. The anorexia of Apple design over the past bunch of years has been a bad trade-off. Weak keyboard, subpar battery life, bending, etc. Not worth it in the balance.

      It’s too soon to tell but this MAY be a sign of course correction. It coincides w/ Ive’s departure, so maybe there’s something there, too?

  4. And please stop painting keys on the user side, the paint comes off and it looks like a cheap ass piece of garbage. Paint the underside of the keys and give us a clear top that does not wear off.

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