Apple has a $250 billion ‘window of opportunity’ this 2018 iPhone upgrade cycle

“Apple could sell as many as 350 million iPhones in the 18 months following the release of its 2018 lineup, fueled in part by a massive upgrade opportunity from legacy users whose devices have run their course,” Stephen Silver reports for AppleInsider. “An analyst research note supporting the 350-million-iPhones thesis was obtained by AppleInsider. In it, author Daniel Ives of GBH Insights believes that ‘the Street is now starting to fully appreciate the massive iPhone upgrade opportunity on the horizon for the next 12 to 18 months with three new smart phones slated for release.'”

“Ives sees 350 million phones as the ‘window of opportunity’ for upgrades, but now it’s a matter of which of the models, and which price point, ‘strikes a chord’ with buyers, as the iPhone X moves down and new models take its place,” Silver reports. “Going by the current iPhone average sales price of $728.30, as of the most recent quarter, 350 million iPhones would result in over $250 billion in revenue for Apple. The ASP, however, could drop based on the new lineup. ”

Silver reports, “Ives predicts three new iPhone models (5.8 inch to 6.5 inch OLED designs with an LCD model) in the next three-to-six months.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Hey, you with that old iPhone, the time to upgrade (massively) is coming in four months or so!

10 Comments

  1. Man is it me or is it total Dullsville around Appleville lately? I guess WWDC will jolt things up – a little. I hope so as it’s becoming a tumbling tumbleweeds, crickets & lonely wind thing going on lately. I don’t feel much palpable excitement from anyone else here either. Nor is the feeling anything truly exciting is coming our way anytime soon. (They never make us what we really want, oh but the “can’t innovate my ass” crowd knows better eh?)

    It’s funny despite all of the various excitement created by “new” non-Mac Apple devices up until now I think many of us would be far more excited by truly exciting new Macs than anything else they could offer. Not all that excited contemplating being an Apple Glasshole nor the AR/VR fad. At least not nearly as excited as having a proper upgradeable Mac that can address my creative high end work.

    1. Totally agree. Apple has really ceased to provide new, innovative products. The watch was a decent effort, but not anything I’m interested in wearing. It just does not look like something I want on my wrist. Other than that, Apple products are quickly becoming stale commodity type products. Probably the Apple product I get most enjoyment from (except my Mac) is Apple Music. I use that every single day. I can’t imagine going without that. Of course, once launched, Apple has hardly innovated at all with Apple Music. Beats 1 still has just a single channel, mostly filled with god awful rap music. I can’t understand why Apple does not innovate more in the area of Apple Music.

    2. You act like this is the first time that Apple fans have gotten jaded with the current crop of Apple products and impatient for the next big thing. It has happened quite a bit over the past decade as people’s awe for the iPhone and iPad faded and they focused on self-absorbed discussions of “what has Apple done for me lately?”

      Besides, we are only at the end of May. The March/April/May period is generally light in terms of Apple product announcements or revelations about game-chasing innovations. WWDC is coming. You can gripe after that, if nothing that is announced at WWDC floats your lead balloon.

      Apple is still chugging along and new innovations and excitement will arrive sooner or later. Enjoy what you have rather than griping about what you don’t.

      1. I already answered that comment so your post is disingenuous and ridiculous. I guess in your mind it’s “impatient” to demand a more regularly upgraded Mac Pro than 6-7 years between (that pros depend on or forcing them to switch platforms) or a new Mac Mini that still hasn’t been upgraded in 3 1/2 years? (Prior to that the Mac mini saw almost yearly updates.)

        Get real yourself. WWDC may answer some questions but inevitably leave others unanswered. Appreciate the mindless Apple cheering squad diatribe as I used to be one of them until continued disappointment drove it out of me. Let’s be real about Apple here and not live in a fantasy world where everything is peachy keen.

  2. The “business” conundrum that Apple will face in the near future is what the Windows world faced 10 years ago and still face – the tech world has already achieved (or close to it) what the masses want, and upgrades to those people are no longer a major issue. Microsoft did/does have crappy OS IMO, but for the overall small business adherents, Windows XP achieved all that they wanted or needed (except for viruses protection.) Most of these folks only upgrade after a computer dies and they are forced to upgrade.

    My wife hates the thought of a new iPhone or new MBAir or equivalent. She does not want or need higher tech. Tech has achieved more than they need or can handle.

    peter blood71 is more typical of the need for more and more, as are most tech guys and gals. However, we are about to reach a tech level that the average Joe & Jane do not want or need. Instead of upgrading every two to three years, the tech accomplishments in the iPhone 7 will do the average person until it no longer works. For me, I enjoy the new features, but for the masses they don’t care for them if what they have just works, regardless of its age.

    I personally believe Apple is only two or three years from when the iPhone becomes a 5 year ownership for the average person instead of 1 – 3 years. I am not making this kind of assumption based on my wife’s likes and dislikes but from what I see in meeting people daily across many walks of life. The masses will not buy tech beyond what they need.

    1. The only “more and more” I want is something I shouldn’t have had to painfully wait for – a Mac Pro that works for high end pros. The rest I could care less about.

      I have an iPhone X but considering skipping this year’s new models since it’s a great phone, my original Watch, iPods, iPod Touch, mostly older Macs, etc.. So I am not in the category of the typical techie who’s looking for the next big tech thrill and lives vicariously for it. But I agree maturity of these products contributes to a longer life span. Just like when computers first were introduced until they got to be good enough over a life span of years.

    1. i disagree. not sure that apple will be at the 5G switch on party… and secondly, like most next gen technologies… early adopters are first on the scene, and unfortunately, for your theory, there are just not enough early adopters to make your theory plausible

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