Gene Munster: Here’s what to expect from Apple’s May 1st earning report

“Apple reports on Tuesday, May 1st,” Gene Munster writes for Loup Ventures. “Here’s what we expect: Modest risk (about 3%) to the Street’s Jun-18 revenue estimate based on negative comments from two suppliers. Jun-18 revenue guidance of $48-$51B vs. Street at $52.2B.”

“The company to announce an increase in the buyback by $70B over the next 3 years, a 15% dividend increase, and a one-time cash dividend of about $12B,” Munster writes. “Mar-18 iPhone units of 53m, in line with the Street, and Services growth consistent with last quarter at 18%, also in line with the Street.”

“The Apple story is intact. Near-term, investor optimism will rise going into the summer as anticipation grows ahead of 3 new iPhones in the fall,” Munster writes. “Long-term, Apple’s loyal active base of ~800m iPhones should yield a predictable 215-225m in annual iPhone unit sales that will drive Services growth of 13-15%.”

Much more in the full article – recommended – here.

MacDailyNews Take: Beyond the “one-time cash dividend of about $12B,” about which we’re unsure given Cook’s past comments regarding special dividends, it all sounds perfectly reasonable.

SEE ALSO:
How many iPhones did Apple sell last quarter? – April 25, 2018
Apple’s iPhone captured 86% of global handset profits in Q417; iPhone X alone took 35% of global handset profits – April 17, 2018
Apple’s iPhone X is the UK’s most popular smartphone – April 9, 2018
Apple to release Q218 earnings, webcast live conference call on May 1st – April 3, 2018

18 Comments

    1. I’ve got a dream the new mod-Mac Pro would be a great time to offer a mod mini (already is, I know), that would mimic the MP in a lower power/feature, consumer way. Add to it, Apple monitors for the power/consumer user duo. Why not?

      1. I’m using a borrowed and very upgraded 2010 Mac Pro for a while longer on a specific project but as soon as the project is over I have to return the Mac Pro. At that time I will need to replace it.

        But remember it’s probably not just 2019, more like the end of 2019 and then will they just be doling them out so more waiting. Like 2020.

        Thanks for the mutual sympathy. But why why why did anyone ever have to suffer? I wanna wring their overpaid necks. A situation that really brings out the WTF & WTH’s in me.

        1. I hear you.
          It is perplexing to n-th degree …. no excuse other than sheer stupidity .. arrogance and ignorance.
          Yet some who make/push those decisions are raking in 25 million a year in different forms.🤯🤯🤯🤬

          Yet….. i feel when last summer they suddenly called for that news conference pretty much out of the blues .. it was an effort on their side to acknowledge their f-ups…and reassure
          those concerned that they are working on new solutions…
          So i am waiting with my fingers 🤞🤞🤞
          But my patience will run out too…as will so many’s if they dont act fast.

          1. Most people would get fired for such poor performance but Apple execs get reassuring bonuses and no doubt a nice hug along with a little Kumbaya. But gotta follow those six “P’s”:

            Proper
            Planning
            Prevents
            Piss
            Poor
            Performance

            1. Poor performance? Apple’s numbers are fantastic and they continue to pour money to us the shareholders. Thanks Tim! You are doing fantastic job.

            2. I’m a stockholder too but it isn’t just about the fortunes of one or two relatively recent devices. It goes back to core Mac values which TC and Co. have been flagrantly incompetent about maintaining. Just think how much your stock would be worth if Mac numbers were also 2-3X higher. (Not to mention if they paid more attention to all the ancillary gear they USED to update.) And I believe they could be simply paying attention and caring more.

              You’re being short-sighted. Look at the history of Apple and where they came from. I don’t base my judgement of a CEO on one or two things, I look at the whole picture and the whole picture looks a but pale. They need to execute 100% on everything they do and market. (Then things like Homepod were late, not stereo ready and other promises from Tim& Co. not yet forthcoming.)

              It’s going to get a lot rougher out there with competitors like Google & Amazon stepping in to fill the missing Apple gaps and even Steve Jobs would find it a challenge, let alone a relative amateur like Tim Cook without much broad vision and inability to timely execute. As a stockholder I expect you to demand more, not less.

            3. Cool 👍

              Nevertheless i dont realy see Apples issues steming from planning or execution/ performance ( sure there are glitches here and there , but thats not the deal breaker to me )

              Rather it is :

              Very Poor Judgment .

              One can plan properly and perform well in the execution of the given plan.. … but what is the good of it if the Plan sucked to start with due to poor judgment and vision.

      1. Gee I’m so sorry to put you personally out, especially someone so obviously empathetic. I guess those of us with real Apple grievances are only entitled to air them just once then? (If you enforced that rule you would cut the posts here by half or more at least.)

        I have a hint for you – my posts are not mandatory reading material on MDN. Also I am tired of reading what doofuses say too, but you’ll no doubt be back under another name anyway.

        1. Read the post below.That is the reality. Deal with it and make your decision, because *nothing* will change until 2019.

          Sure, that is Apple’s fault. They put pro users in this position, and they deserve your ire. But contact them directly to express it. Organize user groups and picket the SpaceShip entrance. Find a sympathetic ear in the media and verbally crap all over Apple. But here, in this forum, we already know the situation and have expressed our support and empathy ad nauseam over the past six years. Yes, it sucks. That is life. Move on.

          1. Dont discount the power of whats discussed on forums.
            And who may be listening/reading/ taking notes.

            Trust me on that one.

            Mention once and leave it alone is not an approach that delivers the message effectively or at all … specialy when it comes to a juggernaut like Apple.

            Use all resources to the max.. forums and direct communication, or whatever else means comes to your mind.

            That said
            I will thak the opertunity reiterate again and again.

            Apple AI algorithms from basic spell check( ridiculous ) to contextual understanding to Search to Siri are total jokes ……….all together Apple AI and its implementation across the ecosys are ABYSMAL AND JURASSIC compared to the competition.. its shocking ! Forget Goog or Amazon or MS… even Ebay has better contextual understanding and ‘did u mean’ suggestions.
            I hope their new hire and management’s focus addresses this immidiatly as in ‘yesterday’ as it is incredibly critical to Apple’s survival and relevance down the line .
            It is truly concerning … yet so neglegted and taken for granted…. at least it has been so far.
            It Makes one wonder… can Apple ( the most profitable and valuable tech company in the world ) realy be so dumb when it comes to AI .. even at the most bssic level of Spell check? ….. preplexing!

        2. But you had better start thinking like a business person. You will get no empathy and no sympathy from life or the business world. And I am not going to apologize to telling you how it is.

          1. Having been in the entertainment industry some 35 years and worked on many movies and TV shows I don’t need your infantile diatribe telling me “how it is.” There’s nothing you can tell me I don’t already know. What makes you think I haven’t already gone through the usual avenues to complain?

            You seem to excel mostly at being coldly obnoxious. Obviously a deeply ingrained personality trait or style.

            Thanks but I will continue posting as I see fit on MDN. Obviously you are doing the same. Your effarts to intimidate are futile and humorous at best.

  1. I know that Apple has screwed up royally and has failed to fix the situation after six plus years. Even Apple has acknowledged those facts, and admitted that a new Mac Pro will not be forthcoming in 2018, despite previous promises. That is the reality, and I do not foresee any reason to expect Apple to accelerate release of the Mac Pro prior to the new 2019 target. Therefore, there is nothing to discuss anymore.

    Pro users who want to stay with an Apple Mac either have to continue using the Macs that they have and wait until 2019 for the new model, or buy a new iMac Pro (possibly just as an interim solution to carry them over the next year or so).

    Pro users who are more adventurous (or foolhardy?) could consider building a high-end Hackintosh.

    Otherwise, buy a Windows workstation and make the leap. I will be sorry to see pro users depart the Mac platform, but business is business. You have to take care of your business and Apple has to take responsibility for its decisions, too.

    1. The point of constant, steady complaints or unsatisfied vocal repetition is maybe it will get through their fruity heads.

      In fact complaining isn’t something merely targeted to other posters here at all, it’s really meant for Apple’s ears. This is a fairly prominent Mac site so one would hope they peruse it now and again to see how they’re doing. I hope what they are seeing now sickens them a little bit.

      So next time you see similar Apple criticisms popping up just be aware they’re not for you. These are extraordinary times and Apple has once again disappointed with their Mac line to the point that customers are forced to abandon them for another more versatile platform. I don’t think we’ve seen this situation before giving high end pro customers no choice but to leave, hence the reason to be even more vociferous about it.

      Kind of ironic seeing PC’s now as more versatile than Macs. And sad too.

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