Goldman Sachs cuts Apple iPhone sales estimates

“Goldman Sachs has slashed its Apple iPhone sales estimates for the first two quarters of the year,” Arjun Kharpal reports for CNBC. “The investment bank said for quarter ended March, it is trimming its iPhone sales expectations by 1.7 million units. It now expects sales of 53 million units in the calendar first quarter. For the three months to June, Goldman said it expects sales of 40.3 million units, a reduction of 3.2 million from its previous forecast.”

“The Wall Street analysts said that it has reduced its iPhone shipment forecast by 2.5 percent to 217.3 million units for Apple’s fiscal year which ends on September 30, 2018,” Kharpal reports. “It also cut its iPhone shipment expectations for fiscal 2019 and 2020 by 4 percent and 1.8 percent respectively.”

“As a result of its reduction in iPhone shipments, Goldman also reduced its revenue forecasts for this fiscal year ending September by 2.4 percent to $256.6 billion. For the 2019 fiscal year, Goldman cut its revenue forecast by 2.7 percent to $272.5 billion,” Kharpal reports. “Despite declining replacement rates, Goldman said the number of people with iPhones will continue to grow and currently stands at 631 million units.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: The lower the bar, the bigger the beat.

In Q217, Apple sold 50.763 million units. So, despite their “slashing” of their iPhone unit sales estimate, Goldman is forecasting Apple’s Q2 sales to increase by 2.237 million units YOY.

We won’t know for sure until we see this quarter’s (Apple’s fiscal Q218) results in May, since iPhone sales actually did increase YOY when you compare apples to apples, as opposed to comparing the 13-week 2017 holiday quarter to a 14-week 2016 holiday quarter and calling it a “decline,” when it wasn’t.MacDailyNews, March 22, 2018

iPhone X was the best-selling smartphone in the world in the December quarter according to Canalys, and it has been our top selling phone every week since it launched. iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus rounded out the top three iPhones in the quarter. In fact, revenue for our newly launched iPhones was the highest of any lineup in our history, driving total Apple revenue above our guidance range… The iPhone X was the most popular and that’s particularly noteworthy given that we didn’t start shipping until early November, and we’re constrained for a while. The team did a great job of getting into supply demand balance there in December. But since the launch of iPhone X, it has been the most popular iPhone every week, every week sales. And that is even through today, actually through January… We feel fantastic, particularly as it pertains to iPhone X. — Apple CEO Tim Cook, February 1, 2018

SEE ALSO:
Apple’s iPhone ASP may end up being better this quarter than Wall Street expects – March 26, 2018
Apple’s iPhone X sales continue to disappoint, some analysts say – March 22, 2018
Ignore the iPhone X naysayers – March 10, 2018
Will the naysayers admit they were wrong about Apple’s iPhone X? – February 5, 2018

8 Comments

  1. These Wall Street ANALCYSTS will never learn that market share is not everything. Apple’s enviable margins (high Profit) mitigates the issue of small market share.

  2. Just bought a new iPhone and a new iPad. Still waiting for the Apple Watch Series 3 GPS+wireless to go on sale where I live. Next week I am going to buy another iPad. All these are now with the Apple pencil. Apple is doing fine.

  3. “Goldman Sachs has slashed its Apple iPhone sales estimates for the first two quarters of the year,” Arjun Kharpal reports for CNBC.”

    More of the self-serving and typical irresponsible journalism, as “slashed” implies a much larger cut than 2.5%.

  4. goldman sachs had a very low Apple price target at 161 which was ‘underwater’ for a while. Commentators like Phillip Elmer DeWitt (PED) were making fun of analysts (with low price targets) like them. These were the firms that recently kept coming up with ‘gloom and doom’ sifting for some negativity to push the stock down as it must be hard explaining to their clients as aapl went up.

    Note the AVERAGE aapl price target that PED follows comes up to around 190, the highest being 220 from Merril Lynch.

    1. “What’s the odds that these guys are wrong. ”

      Very high. Apple doesn’t guide unit sales for any of its products. Apple guidance is limited to
      Revenue
      Gross Margin
      Operating Expense
      OIE
      and Tax Rate

      I have built my forecast model (since FY 2010) using Apple’s guidance, and since adjusting for the model Maestri uses to guide future performance, I have been much more accurate than WS consensus (top 8% on estimize.com’s ~700 Apple/AAPL forecasters).

      In its latest note to investors, GS is forecasting $256 billion in revenue (even after lowering iPhone units sod). My full-year revenue forecast has been $255 billion since early March.

      From my perspective, GS’s original forecast was too high. It had to be lowered, but not because the iPhone is doing poorly. The problem was GS’s overly optimistic estimate.

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