“To put this all in perspective, consider the time when published reports indicated that demand for the iPhone 5 had collapsed towards the end of 2012. It was all based on claims of reduced component orders from Apple’s complicated supply chain, and the stock price fell appropriately,” Gene Steinberg writes for The Tech Night Owl. “Except, when actual sales for the December 2012 quarter were announced, sales had increased by a decent margin, not decreased.”
“Tim Cook’s responses to the misleading reports about the iPhone 5 were to educate industry analysts about the fact that you can’t make assumptions about product demand based on a few supply chain metrics,” Steinberg writes. “So you’ve probably read the recent stories. Reports from the supply chain, sourced in Taiwan, claim that orders for iPhone X have been sharply reduced for the March quarter. This has led some tech and industry pundits to claim that demand may be low because it’s too expensive.”
“Well, according to analyst Jun Zhang of Rosenblatt Securities, an investment firm, the supply chain reports of reduced iPhone X orders are incorrect. Zhang says that the cuts actually refer to the iPhone 8 and the iPhone 8 Plus, consistent with the ramping up of iPhone X production. What’s more, the company claims to have seen evidence that sales are increasing in China… In the end, two factors will count most… The first is total iPhone sales; Apple doesn’t do model breakdowns. The other is the ASP, the average sale price, and if it is higher, that would mean more iPhone X sales. Some suggest it’ll exceed $700 for the first time.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Whenever this sort of silliness runs rampant, smart investors take advantage.
In honor of this now annual post-Christmas silly season, we’re backing up the truck.
Even if a particular data point were factual it would be impossible to accurately interpret the data point as to what it meant for our overall business… There is just an inordinate long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what’s going on. Apple CEO Tim Cook, January 23, 2013
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