Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple’s real iPhone supercycle will be in 2018

“A little while ago, generally reliable analyst Ming-Chi Kuo with KGI Securities, whose Apple analysis and predictions have typically been quite accurate, said that while ‘the market generally refers to 2017 as the super cycle of the iPhone, [Kuo and his team] think the real super cycle will be in 2018,'” Ashraf Eassa writes for The Motley Fool.

“Kuo’s reasoning for that claim is based on the following: ‘(1) TrueDepth Camera’s production issues will be significantly addressed in 2018F; (2) new models launched in 2018F will enjoy a longer sales period than those unveiled in 2017; and (3) the product mix, specifications and designs of new iPhone models from 2018F will be more competitive,'” Eassa writes. “Based on the rumors about Apple’s 2018 iPhone lineup that have been trickling out, Kuo is probably onto something.”

“Not only should Apple have an updated version of this year’s iPhone X — a phone that I believe is incredibly competitive — but it’ll have a larger version of that phone, too, which should appeal to a large swath of potential iPhone users as well as large-screen Android phone users who want to switch to Apple but currently won’t due to the lack of a jumbo-sized iPhone X in the marketplace,” Eassa writes. “What could be a really significant iPhone volume driver for Apple, though, is the rumored upcoming lower-cost iPhone with a 6.1-inch liquid crystal display. That phone is expected to offer some of the compelling design elements of the iPhone X and its successors such as a TrueDepth 3D sensing front-facing camera and a nearly bezel-free display, but with some compromises to keep costs low. ”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Let’s hear it for two supercycles combined into one long, extended supercycle!

One surprising rumor about Apple’s next-gen 6.1-inch iPhone – December 12, 2017
Liquidmetal? Apple supplier experimenting with metal case for 6.1-inch LCD iPhone for 2018 – December 7, 2017


  1. I update every other release and have an iPhone 7 currently, so the next cycle would be normal for me. I have less than zero interest in skinny bezels, Face ID or $1,000 price tags.

    Not a phone first person, your mileage may vary. My home desktop Mac has a 4K 32” HP Display- my 1st choice. My 13” MacBook Pro is 2nd and the large iPad Pro (using right now on the road) 3rd. The phone is the last thing except when driving via CarPlay.

    1. “I update every other release and have an iPhone 7 currently, so the next cycle would be normal for me.”

      By your own statement above, you would be an upgrader to the iPhone 8. Your dislikes of Face ID or the price of the iPhone X is no excuse for not continuing your “every other release” normality.

      Now it should be noted that you aren’t obligated to upgrade to the iPhone 8, but its disingenuous to blame the iPhone X tech and price as the reason for not doing so.

  2. “Let’s hear it for two supercycles combined into one long, extended supercycle!”

    Several others have previously stated that the so-called Supercycle will be an extended cycle lasting for multiple years. Kuo, now being described as “generally reliable” (down from “well connected” et al), is just shirt tailing with his 2018 theory.

    If you will recall, Kuo was at the fore front of claims Apple was having difficulties with behind the screen Touch ID as late as this past June, and could not get enough VCSEL components to ramp iPhone X production. He also stated that Apple would launch iPhone X with just 3 million units.

    Interviews with Apple execs since iPhone X launch clearly show that Face ID was Apple’s chosen path for iPhone X security well over a year before its launch, further, component specs and supplier contracts were locked down by November 2016, 7 months before Kuo started his “production problems” meme. Before contracts are awarded suppliers are certified by Apple that they can produce in both quantity and quality. Its more than obvious that all issues on the type of security to be used, and supplier capabilities, were resolved at least 7 months before Kuo sounded his false alarm.

    Kuo’s current super cycle meme is 180º out of sync from his June alarmist announcements of just 5 months ago, and comes after Apple has stated, and demonstrated, that there were no such problems.

    I’ll say it again, Kuo is a analytic/research farce.

  3. Kuro definitely got that wrong about touchid problems in the iPhone X

    But he has been more accurate than anybody: predicting wireless charging and faceID in February, predicting the 5.8 screen with a minus size form factor for the X (when we were still calling it the eight), predicting the 6 and 6 plus form factors before anything be else

    Kuo is not perfect but he’s pretty damn good and I’m betting he’s right about the next 3 phones and the extended super cycle

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.