Apple’s path to first-ever $1 trillion market cap

“Apple’s stock has rallied over the last two months, driven by strong uptake of the iPhone 7, better than expected results over the holiday quarter and buzz surrounding new products such as Airpods and the second-generation Apple Watch,” Trefis Team writes for Forbes. “Apple’s market cap is up from levels of around $600 billion in early January to roughly $740 billion currently.”

“The company’s stock would need to rise by just about 35% for Apple to become the first company to attain a $1 trillion market cap,” Trefis writes. “Apple’s stock tends to shoot up during years when the company redesigns the iPhone, on account of the pent-up demand for a fresh-looking handset. For instance, Apple stock gained close to 30% at its peak during the iPhone 6 product cycle. There is a possibility that year’s upgrade cycle could turn out to be more pronounced, given that Apple hasn’t refreshed the iPhone’s design in over three years.”

Trefis writes, “If Apple launches truly innovative handsets, rather than incremental upgrades, there could be a possibility of a significant rally in its stock price.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Yup, we’re been hearing about Apple achieving a $1 trillion market cap for at least six years now, but could the tenth anniversary iPhone and Apple’s often overlooked, but exceedingly massive Services business propel AAPL to never before seen heights?

Apple on track to become first ever $1 trillion company – February 17, 2017
Bernstein: Apple could be first to $1 trillion market value, propelled by services revenue – Cramer agrees – May 18, 2016
Apple would be worth $1 trillion if market valued it like Steve Jobs-run company – January 4, 2016
Analyst: How Apple’s market value hits $1 trillion in 2016 – November 10, 2015
Annual iPhone Upgrade Program could power Apple to become world’s first $1 trillion company – September 16, 2015
Analyst: Apple at $1 trillion in a year – May 11, 2015
Dream of $1 trillion valuation for Apple slips away – April 17, 2015
Second analyst sees Apple worth $1 trillion – April 17, 2015
Here’s how Apple gets to $1 trillion valuation in just 12 months – March 23, 2015
Apple eyes trillion-dollar market cap – February 24, 2015
Apple’s stock swoon just a blip on its way to being worth $1 trillion – December 2, 2014
Trillion-dollar baby: Can Apple go where company has gone before? – November 24, 2014
Is Apple about to be the first $1 trillion company? Carl Icahn says yes – November 18, 2014
Omega’s Einhorn: Apple’s market value could hit $1 trillion – November 18, 2014
Apple’s market value primed to go to $1 trillion, creating largest company in history – July 3, 2012
Apple at $1,111 per share with a $1 trillion market cap in the next year – April 26, 2012
Piper Jaffray ups Apple price target to $910; sees world’s first trillion-dollar market cap – April 3, 2012
How Apple can reach $2 trillion market value in 2016 – March 16, 2012
Apple: $1 trillion market cap inevitable? – February 21, 2012
Could Apple become world’s first trillion-dollar company? – January 28, 2012
Altucher: Apple will become a trillion-dollar company; $1,000 a share – May 3, 2011
Apple could become first $1 trillion company in as little as 36 months – April 14, 2011


  1. I really hate these articles because it tends to set expectations too high. Apple are not yet at 750BB so why even talk about a nearly 30% increase over that.

  2. Yeah, think back from mid 2015 when everyone claimed Apple was on its way to that $1T market cap and forward to mid 2016 when everyone claimed Apple was done for good. These articles make me sick. I keep seeing these articles asking, “Apple is near $140 so is it still a buy?” Why don’t they ask this question about Amazon, Alphabet or Netflix when they near their highs? Such stupidity to ask that question when the median price target is much higher for Apple.

    Don’t these people ever get tired of talking about Apple and how it’s valued. A P/E of 16 is hardly all that high. Why isn’t this question constantly asked about Amazon or Tesla with their nosebleed P/Es. Apple is sitting on more reserve cash than both of those companies have combined even with Apple’s debt backed out.

    Anyway, as another commenter mentioned, Apple has a long, long way to go to reach $1T in market cap, so why ask such a ridiculous question at this point in time. Anything is possible but in my opinion the likelihood of that happening this year is quite low as conservatively as Apple is being run. I doubt any iPhone super-cycle will be enough. Apple needs a new strong revenue stream to push it up significantly higher and where that will be found I have no idea.

    1. Good post, mag7. It seems to me that Wall Street is viewing Apple more as an income stock. That trend started back around 2009 or so when we saw all of the FUD surrounding Apple and the “law of large numbers.” Fortunately, I never studied law (thanks, Bugs), because I stayed invested.

      Wall Street still views Amazon, Alphabet, Netflix, etc., as growth stocks that will likely someday begin generating substantial profits and justify their currently high P/Es. Meanwhile, Apple continues to churn out many $B in profits each quarter and has much better opportunities for growth than most other companies.

      But that is the challenge, isn’t it? Not only must Apple produce a new revenue stream – a new “iPhone” – but ut must also provide Wall Street with confidence that its existing revenue streams will continue to produce long term. The future prospects of a company, the ROI, is (theoretically) what drives the price (P/E) of a stock, although we all know that irrationality, emotion, and market manipulation are strong factors, as well.

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