Raymond James analyst sees Apple’s stock price stuck at $103 for a year

“Tavis McCourt with Raymond James reiterates a Market Perform rating [on Apple (AAPL)], writing that he’s now using a ‘scalpel’ on his iPhone numbers after using the ‘hatchet’ in December, cutting his numbers for the December quarter and the March quarter to 74 million and 48 million, respectively, from 75 million and 53 million previously,” Tiernan Ray reports for Barron’s. “McCourt thinks ‘sell through’ of iPhones is going to diverge from ‘sell-in.'”

Over the next several quarters, Apple’s shipments are likely to diverge from actual sell-through, if media reports of channel inventory issues are correct. We like to build out our model based on sell-through as it is more stable and predictable, and ultimately sell-through drives sell-in… We make the assumption that in this calendar year, iPhone sell-through will be at the low end of normal ranges due to the iPhone 6S launching earlier in most of the world than previous iPhones, a weakening economy, and a strong U.S. dollar. We then add to this our analysis of channel inventory reductions that will be necessary exiting the December quarter, and we obtain iPhone unit volume estimates of 74 million for December, 48 million for March, 42 million for June and 43 million for September, for a FY16 total of 207 million, which is down 10% y/y, but still up ~22% over a two-year period, which is consistent with iPhone taking modest share in a smartphone market that we believe will grow 10% to 15% over that same period. — Tavis McCourt, Raymond James analyst

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Soon, we shall see.

And, BTW, unit sales are not the be-all and end-all. The product mix and resultant ASPs/margins also have significant meaning. If Apple sells fewer iPhones, but more Plus units and fewer 4-inch entry-level units YOY, the iPhone will still be growing on the revenue and net profit metrics.

Most Apple traders are watching for prices over $100 – January 19, 2016
Growth funds dumping Apple stock on anticipated iPhone sales decline – January 16, 2016
Apple stock’s mini win streak threatened by market reversal – January 13, 2016
Apple could soon lose its place as world’s most valuable company to Google – January 13, 2016

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “David E.” for the heads up.]


  1. Excuse my language – Raymond James and Tavis are f’ing morons, you want me to believe that with iPhone 7 arriving and other new products/iterations this year that the stock will be stuck @ $103- glad you are not my advisors – good on them for grabbing a few headlines however with this idiotic forecast – fools !!

    1. Just because the iPhone 7 is coming out (even if they sell record numbers and earn record profits) does not mean that the stock will go anywhere. The price of the stock has nothing to do with the fundamental business results in this market.

  2. “if media reports of channel inventory issues are correct….”
    Dont you love these anal-ists evasive commitment to their own advice…
    That word if is never missing.. Is it.. ..
    We will all be dead if a giant astroid hits the earth .. If …
    And if an astroid does not hit the earth… Answer is well i told you ” if ”

    Worthless advice… Based on unsubstantiated rumors !…

    1. … and where do those media reports of channel inventory issues come from?

      … from analysts of course.

      How many times have previous reports of channel inventory problems been followed by decreasing YoY iPhone sales?

      None at all.

  3. Is Tavis McCourt an idiotic moron or what? Where do these guys that know the future come from? Whatever fund manager or investor believes this charlatan’s pronouncements are idiotic, moronic incompetent crystal ball want-a-be’s.

  4. If I wasn’t retired (and abhorrent of the idea of working again) I’d apply at Raymond James (or several other investment banking firms) for an Apple/AAPL analysis job. My estimates over the past 24 quarters have been more accurate than WS consensus 19 of 24 times. Raymond James’ track record is much worse than that.

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