Ben Bajarin: ‘Samsung will be out of the smartphone business within five years’

“We have two very different things happening in the smartphone world. We have Apple, who is growing smartphone share in many regions where people said iPhone peaked, raising ASPs, and capturing new customers switching from Android,” Ben Bajarin writes for Tech.pinions. “Then we have Samsung, who has quite a different circumstance. Samsung’s mobile phone unit is suffering from nearly every symptom found in the ‘You Are Being Disrupted’ handbook. Not shockingly, they missed estimates again.”

“The article also goes on to say their smartphones in the $150 range sold well but their premium smartphone sales are falling off a cliff. Their blended handset ASP from 105m total units shipped and 84 million of that smartphones was $180,” Bajarin writes. “There is absolutely nothing they can do to fix the downturn in their premium handsets. No amount of innovation will save them because the ‘good enough’ mindset has settled into Android land.”

“When you ship the same operating system as your competition you are only as good as their lowest price. This is the curse of the modular business model. This is also why Samsung had hopes for Tizen. They actually knew this was coming,” Bajarin writes. “I know this because I discussed it with them in 2013 and was convinced they understood this was their fate if they continued to sell out to Android. Unfortunately, Android was their only option given its momentum. I’ll make a prediction. Samsung will be out of the smartphone business within five years.

Read more in the full article – recommendedhere.

MacDailyNews Take: That long?

It’s best not to mess with karma. – Steve Jobs

Buck up, slavish copier, there’s a light at the end of this tunnel you’ve dug for yourself. A very bright light:


Poor man’s iPhone: Android on the decline – February 26, 2015
Study: iPhone users are smarter and richer than those who settle for Android phones – January 22, 2015
Why Android users can’t have the nicest things – January 5, 2015
iPhone users earn significantly more than those who settle for Android phones – October 8, 2014
Yet more proof that Android is for poor people – June 27, 2014
More proof that Android is for poor people – May 13, 2014
Android users poorer, shorter, unhealthier, less educated, far less charitable than Apple iPhone users – November 13, 2013
IDC data shows two thirds of Android’s 81% smartphone share are cheap junk phones – November 13, 2013
CIRP: Apple iPhone users are younger, richer, and better educated than those who settle for Samsung knockoff phones – August 19, 2013


      1. When you have competition that is simply playing follow the leader, as is this case, they make no technological advancements to benefit us. There’s a difference between good competition, and also-ran copycats making subpar technology that mimics the real thing but ends up leaving you disappointed. If Samsung was leapfrogging Apple in any metric beyond price, I would agree with you… but they aren’t.

        Samsung isn’t the kind of competition that makes things good… And when you use the term “fanboy”, you oughta look in the mirror when you’re throwing out coined phrases that don’t match what you’re talking about.

      2. Thought you might have noticed that no company has actually done better out of pure competition (as opposed to trying to destroy the opposition through non competitive means) than Apple but then I would expect nothing more from a fandick.

    1. Only if they have no respect for their product nor do they really care about changing the world for the better. The only thing that drives them is money. That is why immediately after they kill all competition they put a sales guy in charge and push all the engineering talent into oblivion.

      Apple is driven to create “great” products and wants to “change” the world. They don’t need competition to drive them IF they stay true to Jobsian principles. The billion dollar question is…..will they?

            1. Steinway has struggled to survive and has traded hands a number of times.Relics of the past that do not innovate always face the same outcome. Steinway was a foolish example by someone who does not have a clue.
              You should try and keep up. Read and inform yourself before you post.

    2. That’s true, but at the same time, Apple has proven again and again that they truly are different. They have values. They have a singular mission. The only think that I don’t like about the “new Apple” is how they are saying “this is how things will be “. But maybe that has always been there, it’s just overwhelmingly visible and loud now.

  1. When the first iPhone came out, Smart people with less money were like “Ye!, if only there is a cheaper version of the iPhone i will definitively buy it..”. 2 years later, there was a cheaper iPhone, the first iPhone (Because there was also a newer iPhone). So if you wanted an inexpensive iphone, you have to wait and buy an older iphone that it will be far more advance than any other brand.
    With samsung, who ever wants to buy a cheaper phone, there are tons of it and most of them a lot better than the samsung phone.

    1. That’s not the smartphone business, it’s the component business. However, the signs are that there won’t be so much money to be made from that business in future now that TSMC has demonstrated that their chips are superior to Samsung’s. Samsung haven’t got much of a bargaining position any more.

  2. Wish SamDung would be OUT of SmartPhone Biz but I doubt ……

    Actually they are NOT in the SamrtPhone Biz, they are in the Kopy Kat Biz and that they will never stop doing!

  3. I am no fan of Samsung phones, in fact I was offered a full contract with my employer but turned it down for my own iPhone. But Samsung makes some great products, like RAM, SSDs and televisions. I want them to stay in the game because they push Apple to innovate and I have not forgotten the bad years before the return of Steve Jobs.

    1. I’m not sure how you judge televisions, but last week I stayed in a high quality holiday rental cottage which had a Samsung TV, satellite receiver and sound bar. The user interface was absolutely dreadful and it took quite a while just to get it working. The picture was over-saturated with “peaking” around the highlights to make it look sharper than it really was, while flesh tones had a very unnatural flat quality, but the worst aspect was the extremely heavy bass from the sound bar. I couldn’t find any way to turn it down to an acceptable level as it only offered pre-set options, such as flat / music / movies / games. Removing the power from the sub woofer removed all the bass, which was even worse than having too much.

      I’ve owned a lot of good quality TVs in my time and have worked in the broadcasting business for decades, but this Samsung setup was without a doubt the worst that I’ve ever come across and I would guess that it was quite an expensive one too.

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