Will Apple rise on record iPhone sales or fall on weak Apple Watch guidance?

“Investors are anxiously waiting to see how Apple Inc. performed during the December quarter,” Louis Bedigian writes for Benzinga. “The company’s earnings results will be released Tuesday, January 27. In the meantime, most analysts have continued to support the notion that Apple enjoyed another record-breaking quarter.”

“That’s the good news – but what about the future?” Bedigian writes. “After the iDevice numbers are out, investors will look to Apple’s next major product, the Apple Watch, for additional growth.”

“Cody Willard thinks the company might endure another decline after its FY2015 Q1 results are released,” Bedigian writes. “‘Everyone will be wondering how much they should be modeling for the Apple Watch,’ Willard explained. ‘Those are numbers that are really all over the place. I would expect Apple, in its usual way, to temper any optimism about it, probably talk it down, guide lower. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock get hit after the quarter. Five, 10 percent, who knows?'”

Read more in the full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “David E.” for the heads up.]


  1. Fall on weak watch guidance???

    You mean all the products that made the last record sales quarter of $90billion ( thats tonly hree months) won’t count if a conservative new product is given…?

    Anal ists indeed.

    1. You mean all the products that made the last record sales quarter of $90billion ( thats only three months) won’t count if a conservative new product guidance is given…?

    2. Profit growth predictions are all-important to Wall Streeters. Profit growth expectations theoretically drive P/E multiples. The P/E and earnings give you the stock price. With stocks, it isn’t even “What have you done for me lately?” The important question is, “What will you do for me next year?”

      The interesting thing about Apple and AAPL is that its P/E has tended to stay lower than its growth rate would justify. Investors continue to look for Apple to fall. In contrast, some Apple competitors with much poorer fundamentals boast much higher P/Es. Apparently, they suck so bad that they have a lot of potential to get better.

      You can make (and lose) money playing the growth and momentum games. A saner approach diversifies growth and income and across a range of market sectors. I always keep in mind that great stock analysts would be independently wealthy and would not need to pimp themselves for money. Similarly, great investors/investment companies would have more than enough of their own money to invest and keep themselves busy. The fact that these people make money from *your* money should tell you something.

      1. There’s no reason whatsoever for AAAple to fall or have a low P/E. (that’s : Period). These analysts couldn’t even list Apple’s revenue streams if their lives depended on it, let alone understand, recognize or analyize them.

        Apple falls on their deliberate misleading and FUD only, no other findamental reason. And, because these assholes know for certain that Apple is so undervalued, by design and is always going to go back up before earnings and or new products, unrivaled innovation and leadership, they manipulate AAPL to their illegal enrichment, knowing full well that the SEC is so lame and that they will never be held accountable.

  2. Well, if past performance is any indication of future, the likelihood is quite high that there will be a noticeable drop after the announcement. For the last four out of five years, that’s what happened, and it is always the same: Wall Street is simply unhappy with Apple’s own guidance numbers for the next quarter, regardless of the spectacular number for the holiday one. In this case, not even “what have you done for me lately” applies; Wall St wants to know “what will you do for me tomorrow”, and if they don’t like what they hear from Apple, they unload swiftly. The stock soon recovers, but the sell-off is quite consistent, almost every year.

    Let us see if history repeats itself this time.

  3. I would be surprised if they gave specific guidance for the iWatch and it isn’t expected to launch until March so even if it launches strong there won’t be that much in the next quarter numbers.

    apple is always conservative with their guidance but iphone sales are still going strong, you have Chinese New Year in the March quarter, and they need to build channel inventory they weren’t able to build in the December quarter.

    However, the market frequently isn’t rational, so who knows?

    1. I say it doesn’t pop. It’s a rigged market so Apple isn’t going to get any sort of a break. Tim Cook has tried almost everything possible to make Apple attractive to investors and nothing seems to work. Institutional ownership hasn’t budged. Apple’s P/E is still much lower than Microsoft’s and light years below Google. When a company that makes huge amounts of money is being rigged to fail, then there’s nothing that can be done.

      Netflix must be up about 25% since earnings and it’s just a one-trick pony of a company on a roller coaster ride. I feel certain if Apple wanted to go after Netflix it easily could. I’m not saying Apple should try to take Netflix’s business away but I’m just saying Apple certainly could if it really wanted to. Apple gets very little respect as far as Wall Street is concerned and there’s nothing anyone can do about it.

  4. I did some research and this is what I found.

    1/24/14 $78.01 – 2/14/14 $77.71 = down 0.4%
    1/25/13 $62.84 – 2/15/13 $65.74 = up 4.6%
    1/27/12 $63.90 – 2/17/12 $71.73 = up 12.3%
    1/21/11 $46.67 – 2/18/11 $50.08 = up 7.3%
    1/22/10 $28.25 – 2/12/10 $28.63 = up 1.3%
    1.23/09 $12.62 – 2/13/09 $14.17 = up 12.3%

    Doesn’t look so gloomy to me.

    1. The past is the worst trailing predictor and has little to do with the future. Those who fail to learn from the lessons of the past are likely to repeat them? Is that what you base your investing tactics on? How is that working out for you?

      1. My method is working pretty good actually, and it’s not by using trailing indicators. It was by seeing and using Apple products and believing these things HAVE to sell like hotcakes. Years ago I accumulated 800 shares at $44/sh, then VISA card donated 200 shares to go along with that (another story). They start on my new log home in Feb.

  5. “how much they should be modeling for the Apple Watch”
    “what to fantasize and make up about the Apple Watch”

    “Five, 10 percent, who knows?”
    “I have to fucking clue – and neither does anyone else called an analyst”.

  6. Apple sells a smart phone to everyone on the planet who wants one. Great!

    But what about next quarter??? Apple could fail if it did not do even better!!! Sell. Sell.
    /s and LOL.

  7. Pullbacks are always inevitable, that’s why investing in the market is not for the faint of heart.

    Barring a complete global meltdown, Apple has a few things going for it moving forward:

    * Ahrendts is aggressively expanding Apple Store presence in China.

    * The iPhone 6/plus is still selling like gangbusters.

    * Apple Pay.

    * Chip problems are hampering Samsung’s rollout of new, high-end devices.

    * iPhone 7 (6s?) with next-gen processors.

    * One more thing…

  8. As an aside, I discovered a couple of weeks ago that I couldn’t post anymore using the MDN iOS app. So, I created an account with their Word Press service today, and posting was again permitted, if I logged into their service. I can still post without an MDN Word Press account using Safari, just giving a name and email account, as I could previously with the iOS app.

  9. OK, if I get this right, the guidance Apple will provide Tuesday will be about the current quarter, which may include Watch sales but only a few weeks at most.

    Dumbshit analcysts. They are nothing more than market manipulators.

  10. The drops over the last few years are because EPS decreased for 2013 fiscal quarter 1 and EPS was only 5% higher (buybacks included) for 2014 fiscal quarter 1. Plus, guidance for fiscal quarter 2 was much lower than estimates during both cycles which created fear and doubt about the company’s direction. Is there any fear regarding the company’s direction today?

    Since fiscal quarter 1, EPS has increased around 20 percent. So, for the past four quarters EPS growth has averaged around 16.25 percent. After this quarter is reported, the EPS growth for the past four quarters will be a MINIMUM of 20 percent. The current trailing P/E as of today’s close is 17.57. So, after the report the stock will be considered undervalued when looking at the trailing P/E metric.

    What about going forward?

    1. From all indications iPhone sales during this quarter are still very strong.

    2. The watch and maybe other new products will be released sometime in the quarter which should provide another boost to sales and profits

    3. On a macro level the dollar is strong, but interest rates and gasoline prices are low. The consumer has more money to spend. Emerging markets buying power is also continuing to get stronger. I listened to the Skyworks call yesterday night and they are extremely bullish on mobile and the Internet of Things for at least the next 5 years. They said China could activate up to 260 million 4G devices this year. That’s three times the amount activated in 2014. Do the math…

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