Pacific Crest cuts unit sales estimates on Amazon’s struggling Kindle Fire devices

“Pacific Crest’s Chad Bartley this morning reiterates a Sector Perform rating on shares of Amazon.com, after his supply chain ‘checks’ suggested to him that the company’s ‘Kindle Fire’ tablet computer, based on Google‘s Android operating system, is not selling as well as he’d previously thought,” Tiernan Ray reports for Barron’s.

“Bartley now models Amazon selling just 6 million units this quarter of the Fire, down from 8 million previously, and 10.5 million for all of 2013, down from 12.5 million previously,” Ray reports. “Bartley’s estimate for this fiscal year goes to $62.11 billion in revenue from a prior $62.57 billion, while his EPS estimate stays at $2.37. His 2013 estimates go to $78.23 billion and $2.70 per share from a prior $78.94 billion and $2.60 per share.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: iPad and iPad mini, killers.

Cue Bozos to issue an Amazon press release trumpeting “record” Kindle sales of a gazillion mabillion squadillion in 3… 2…

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “David E.” for the heads up.]

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20 Comments

    1. “No, MDN, Amazon sold a googolplex Kindles. Get it right. iPads are doomed to be relics as as result.”
      You left the >;^) off, btw.
      Either that, or you need to lay off the ‘shrooms, dude.

      1. The article says “supply source checks”. This usually means they go to Hon Hai (Foxconn) or whoever makes these and snoop around, finding out size of orders for devices. If Amazon won’t report numbers, there is always someone down the supply chain, between the retailer and the one that actually makes the device, who will. And this may even go beyond the device maker, all the way to the independent component makers. You can get a pretty good picture of the numbers sold if you can get a number of graphic processors delivered to the assembly factory by the chip maker.

        1. “… good picture of the numbers sold if you …”

          I would restate this as “… good picture of the numbers manufactured if you …”. Review of the supply chain wont tell you how many are in consumer hands. There may be six million in the stores but only 3 million under the x-mas tree.

          1. While you have a point, it is difficult to imagine any one even remotely successful company to so severely overestimate the demand for their devices, or mercilessly stuff the supply chain, just so that they can claim high numbers. A stuffed chain will very quickly backfire (massive mark-downs in order to move the product), and retailers will rarely be the ones to absorb the losses.

            In other words, while there is certainly a significant difference in Apple’s handling of the inventory (which is legendary for its single-digit low numbers) vs. other manufacturers, stuffing the channel to inflate the numbers incurs a fairly negligible inflation of the numbers.

            Bottom line, checking the supply source will give a fairly reasonable estimate of devices that eventually end up sold. Even at its worst days, Apple didn’t have more than 12 weeks worth of inventory. No manufacturer of today can afford such massive stockpile.

  1. By his own admission Chad Bartley got it wrong when he previously predicted that Amazon would sell 8 million Fires. Why should anybody believe his latest guess ?

    Amazon refuse to release sales figures, so any figure mentioned by an analyst is nothing more than guesswork.

    Just as Microsoft are always promising to sort out all their problems with the new release of Windows, analysts are trying to convince us that they will get their analysis right this time.

    MDN should as a matter of course iCal predictions made by analysts and then prominently feature previous predictions when that analyst next publishes a prediction. Those with good track records will gain credibility, while the charlatans will be shown up for what they are.

    1. I posted last week that when Amazon was offering KF for $50 off, that was a sign they were not selling well. Does Apple cut the PX on its sold out iPad Mini. Must be painful to take a $50 loss on each sale hoping some kid who gets one for Christmas is going to buy 10 books which I believe hat it would take to cover the loss.

    1. The kindle fire is a poorly made slab of plastic destined for the bottom of the toy box, unloved, unused and un-updated. Mommy and Daddy don’t love me enough to buy me an iPad. Its like buying your 7 year old daughter a Malibu Becky Doll instead of a Barbie. The nicest thing about the kindle is that each one digs them deeper into debt. With the margins that they make does anyone even think they care about support those slabs of plastic junk. May you sell many more to the idiot brigades even they have doors that need to be propped open.
      As far as ANALcysts they are full of shit and manipulating the stocks. Think about it you cant touch Apple any other way by competing you can by manipulating the stock market to profit from them or regurgitate the same worm out BS from inferior product peddlers.

  2. “His 2013 estimates go to $78.23 billion and $2.70 per share from a prior $78.94 billion and $2.60 per share.”

    Hmmm. Interesting. Sales are projected to be down, earnings are projected to be down. This translates to price per share going up.

    I better buy Amazon stock. they are definitely undervalued at 3,100 P/E.

  3. But but but! The Amazon Kindle Fire is sold BELOW COST! What happened to it BUYING MARKET SHARE for Amazon?

    Apparently the word on the street is ‘DISAPPOINTMENT’ when people actually get a load of these POS OtherPads. The stigma. The terrible stigma of owning an OtherPad.

  4. I don’t understand why Amazon needs thee own tablet. Maybe they wanna own more of the costumer relation but people already buy stuff from Amazon via their iPhone and iPad. And since Amazon is selling this thing for a loss I think this whole Kindle Fire thing is a money losing mistake. I don’t think they get more sales because of it.

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