Tablet PCs, such as Apple’s iPad, are expected to be the growth driver for the mobile PC market over the next few years. Tablet shipments will surpass notebook shipments in 2016, according to the latest NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report. Overall mobile PC shipments will grow from 347M units in 2012 to over 809M units by 2017.
While notebook PC shipments are expected to increase from 208M units in 2012 to 393M units by 2017, tablet PC shipments are expected to grow from 121M units to 416M units in this period, for a compound annual growth rate of 28%. A key driver for tablet PC growth is adoption in mature markets (including North America, Japan and Western Europe), which will account for 66% of shipments in 2012 and remain in the 60% range throughout the forecast period. Tablet PC shipments into mature markets will grow from 80M units in 2012 to 254M units by 2017.
Figure 1: Worldwide Mobile PC Shipment Forecast (000s)
Source: NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report
“Consumer preference for mobile computing devices is shifting from notebook to tablet PCs, particularly in mature markets,” said Richard Shim, senior analyst at NPD DisplaySearch. “While the lines between tablet and notebook PCs are blurring, we expect mature markets to be the primary regions for tablet PC adoption. New entrants are tending to launch their initial products in mature markets. Services and infrastructure needed to create compelling new usage models are often better established in mature markets.”
Figure 2: Emerging and Mature Market Tablet Shipments (000s)
Source: NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report
Building upon convenience-oriented features including instant-on capability, long battery life and extreme portability, tablet PCs are expected to evolve in form factor and performance, making them a compelling alternative to notebook PCs. Tablet PCs are expected to incorporate multi-core processors, increasingly stable operating systems, growing app libraries and higher resolution displays.
In addition, notebook PCs are also evolving to meet the challenge from tablet PCs. Thinner form factors, higher resolution displays and touch functionality features are expected to increase. The notebook PC market will remain the largest part of the mobile PC market during the forecast period, accounting for 60% of mobile PC shipments in 2012, declining to 49% by 2017.
Source: The NPD Group, Inc.
“Tablet PCs, such as Apple’s iPad, are expected to be the growth driver for the mobile PC market over the next few years.”
Shouldn’t this just say “Apple’s iPad is expected to be the growth driver for the mobile PC market over the next few years”?
yes.
They could just say “Apple will own everything, and soon” but then there is no story. There is a protagonist (AAPL) but the plot (set to take over everything) scares the ever loving shite out of them (reporters+publications/websites) because who is going to buy their ads when there is no “Market” any more?
What ever will the Enderlies do?
Say I hadn’t considered Rob Enderle and Paul Thurott (maybe even John Dvorak?) could be out of a job with an Apple landslide – WIN-WIN!!!
Since Microsoft is just shooting vaporware blanks and even when their product finally comes to market it will be met with mostly consumer indifference, I’d say it’s iPad all the way.
Did not the naysayer pundits conclude that the iPad is not a mobile PC and just a mere, larger iPod Touch or iPhone? Now the …. Cough COUGH!!! iPad is indeed a Tablet PC?! WTF!? These ANALists need their collective heads examined! Good LORD!
Stevie Ballmer said that tablets are PCs.
Good enough for me!
2016?
2016?
Only “bet” on absolutely sure things, NPD? (Been way wrong on Apple products much [dating back to the 80s by their track record]?)
Who are they kidding? If they include 7″ and up tablets they will surpass notebook sales no later than 2014.
If they only do the 10″ class and up tablets then 2016 is a given, safe bet. 2014 is possible, 2015 is a maybe.
None of these guys can make a valid prediction for Apple in 2013, much less three years later. If their predictions were reliable, then they would have started buying AAPL a long time ago and would not have to worry about making predictions for money.
I am always suspect of people who want to make money handling your money or who make publicized predictions for money. In the former case, if they were any good then they would have enough of their own money to keep them busy. In the latter case, if their predictions were reliable, then they would either act on them with their own money, or sell the ideas/data to those with deep pockets for a cut of the action.
Good points.
I don’t see a viable competitor to the iPad and Apple’s aggressive upgrades on all levels makes it a vertical climb to try to reach Apple’s position & performance.
No company I’ve seen has done the OS enhancement & programming tools which Apple has done that underlies all of their products. More than a decade went into the UNIX underpinnings & tools before OSX was released. I don’t see a single Apple competitor who has done this.
I begin to wonder if we shouldn’t be careful what we wish for… NAH!!!!!!