Apple shares good for run to $500 with new iPads coming up

“According to a report, Apple could launch iPad mini and iPad 3 next year. [1] However, these reports are conflicting with respect to timing and the specifications of these devices,” Trefis writes.

“One report suggests that suppliers are already shipping panels for iPad 3 in millions,” Trefis writes. “Another report suggests that Apple will launch iPad mini early next year and the more powerful iPad 3 by second quarter of 2012.”

Trefis writes, “We believe that irrespective of the specifications and timings, Apple will continue to dominate the tablet market despite competition from the likes of Amazon, Research In Motion and Hewlett-Packard in the tablet market. iPad accounts for around 12% of our $500 price estimate for Apple stock, and our price estimate is about 30% above market price.”

Read more in the full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “GetMeOnTop” for the heads up.]

17 Comments

    1. Investor? Look, you only make money when you sell an equity. Buy low sell high. Hopefully. If you’ve been a long term AAPL investor and have been holding, dear god you have thrown away hundreds,thousands,tens of thousands! You have to pull the trigger when you are up. You can always buy back in. AAPL just like all stocks goes up and down (see last month). You shouldn’t day trade (unless you are dedicated and brave) but to have bought and held AAPL for years is sad. I too have invested in AAPL for years but have bought and sold many,many times. It’s just simple math and common sense.

      1. The problem is knowing when to buy and sell. It’s easy in hindsight. Looking forward is hard. Try sketching a chart of AAPL for 2012 and check it for accuracy Christmas of 2012.

        As, Will Rogers said. Buy low and sell high. If it doesn’t go high don’t buy it.

  1. Seriously, Apple is at $360 or so. How in the world is it going to run up to $500? The world economy is a mess. Every investor and his mother is going to be dumping Apple shares first just to buy groceries. With Steve Jobs gone, it appears that Wall Street is going to consider Apple as a burnt-out company that can no longer come out with hit after hit.

    As it stands now, Apple’s innovation counts for nothing and Apple’s cash reserve counts for nothing, so what are Apple shareholders left with? A quarter to quarter struggle to increase iPhone or iPad sales with Wall Street doubting growing sales every quarter. Apple needs to get a side business that’s unrelated to consumer computer sales. Or at least something that will change Wall Street’s utter lack of faith in Apple growth.

    Just two short months ago, Apple was in the $420 range but just look at it now. Somebody pressed the down elevator button and now it’s stuck. It’s a lot easier to run Apple stock down than to run it back up, that’s for sure.

    1. That’s one way to look at it. But another is to place Apple on the cusp of a large cultural change in which it is still poised to grow.

      As computers transition to robots over the next 25 years, the big question is if Apple is poised to become THE robot company the way it became THE mobile entertainment company. A few quarters here, a few quarters there, are meaningless. What matters is if Apple, which has all the ingredients in place, can continue to cook for the long haul.

      If you track robotics components on a BACN graph, principally the large components out of reach of startups, and who is in the best position to benefit financially on a JAM (or better yet, GIN) graph, Apple’s looking very good.

      There’s always risk, whether you run a TOST analysis and correct for PBAJ or just use common sense.

      Mitigating risk is a “worst case scenario” that is progressively improving. With cash and products buttressing the next several years, there’s a threshold below which Apple can’t fall. But how high it can rise, not just in the next several years but beyond, is something even the best CNDY analysis can barely predict!

        1. You calculate that by adding non-controversial assets on a BUN chart.

          The most obvious is cash. Apple’s on the verge of a $100B war chest. AAPL shares will never be lower than its cash, as $1 is never worth less than $1. So of ~ $350B MktCap, ~$100B represents a non-controversial asset.

          To put that in perspective, in the last 5 years, AAPL had a MIN Mkt Cap of $73B. Currently, there is more cash than what AAPL was worth TOTAL in its 5 year min low.

          Add the most cynical valuation of “everything else” (iPhone, iPad, Mac, etc.) to current book value ($82) on a BUN chart to calculate the threshold below which it can’t fall.

    2. I totally agree with this statement! How many of us have read articles stating, “AAPL is going to run up to $xxx,” yet the stock always fails to make its run. Most of us already believe the stick should be trading in the realm of $450-$500. Wall Street clearly dislikes AAPL — conditions within the world economy doesn’t help either.

      As a hold of AAPL since mid-2008, I’ve been grateful to earn amazing returns; however, I just don’t think I can no longer achieve the respectable growth rates as I had in the past. Although initially I was LONG on AAPL, I’m serious about dumping my shares and moving funds into other stocks.

      As I read dozens of various articles each day on AAPL, I cannot fathom the idea why Wall Street hates Apple so much. Are they scared of something? If Amazon can trade with a ridiculously inflated P/E of 90 compared to Apple’s depressed P/E of 13, where is the F—ing logic in that?

  2. I’m currently several thousand in the hole over last week. But if I sold at a loss, what would I buy? Probably Apple. It’s not like the company is holding toxic assets. Apple is loaded with cash and products that sell out and dominate sectors. People gotta have their i-devices, no matter the economy.

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