ChangeWave: Apple primed for most explosive holiday season in company history

“Consumer Electronics spending is up for the holidays and will exceed last year according to a November ChangeWave survey of 2,812 U.S. consumers – and much of it is being driven by Apple (AAPL), which is having the most explosive holiday season in its history,” Paul Carton and Andy Golub report for ChangeWave Research.

“The new ChangeWave survey took a close-up look at home entertainment shopping for the holidays, including consumer demand trends for laptops, desktops, iPads, e-readers and other personal gadgets – along with the biggest winning and losing electronics retailers,” Carton and Golub report. “Better than one-in-four respondents (26%) say they’ll spend more on consumer electronics over the next 90 days and only 29% say less – a big 9-pt jump from last month and a net 3-pt improvement over a year ago (Nov 2009).”

Carton and Golub report, “The survey also found a big jump in planned laptop purchasing, with 10% saying they’ll buy a laptop in the next 90 days – 2-pts better than last month and matching the highest level in a ChangeWave survey in three years. Planned desktop buying is down 1-pt from previously.”

“The manufacturer most responsible for the surge in laptop demand is Apple, with 36% of planned laptops buyers saying they’ll purchase a Mac – a huge 11-pt jump since our previous survey of a month ago (Oct ’10),” Carton and Golub report. “The chart shows how dramatic a rise that actually is.”

Carton and Golub report, “Simply put, it’s the highest level of planned laptop buying ever for Apple in a ChangeWave survey. Planned Mac desktop purchases are also up 1-pt… In terms of individual electronics items, the Apple iPad Tablet is the clear monster hit this holiday season, with 9% saying they’ll buy one in the next 90 days.”

Much more in the full report (.pdf) here.

[Attribution: Fortune. Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “Fred Mertz” and “Brawndo Drinker” for the heads up.]

21 Comments

  1. Being an Apple stock holder since 2000 I like their strategy, I like it a lot (but in Apple’s case for all the right reaons).

    I still don’t get people who “meh” over the iPad or don’t use it a lot. Cobwebs are gathering on my G5 & Mac Pro desktop Macs considering how much less I use them because of the iPad, except for those big “Mac Truck” jobs. Right now I am laying comfortably on a couch with the iPad in an InCase resting on a small pillow on my chest. This horizontal resting user use is what I have been looking forward to! How groovalicious is that?!

  2. I’ve pointed this out numerous times that Changewave’s surveys are rubbish. Remember when Katie Huberty of Morgan Stanley downgraded Apple twice in one week, leading to a big selloff of the stock? Well, her second downgrade was based upon a Changewave survey that was interpreted by Carton as negative for Apple. Of course it didn’t come true, and neither Changewave’s Paul Carton, nor Morgan Stanley’s Katie Huberty ever retracted their negative opinions.

    Besides using ancient graphs from the 90s, they don’t list their margin of error, nor do they survey every month.

    Look at the last chart on PC buying intent. They compare the Nov ’10 survey to what? They don’t compare it to Nov of 09, since they didn’t do one then. They totally miss the Nov and Dec figures, and yet they draw conclusions. In this case, it’s positive, but I think giving credence to rubbish surveys is harmful.

    Think before you click.

  3. People are finding the cost benefits of staying at home and entertaining themselves verses wasting gas, eating out and spending money during this “Great Recession” brought on by the incompetents running the last session of Congress.

    So more electronic items are top on the list to kill time and save money.

    And if you really want to save money on electronic items, like I’ve said before and got flamed by the registered trolls here….

    http://lifehacker.com/5697225/hold-off-on-electronics-purchases-until-after-the-holidays-to-save-big

    HA HA!!

  4. B of M,

    Apple never sells off over-stocked items in January.

    Apple always under-stocks due to the high demand.

    Now, if you don’t buy an iPhone and wait until January to save big, you can get 2 Androids free for the cost of a 2 year contract, but you can do that now.

    If you want an Apple product, buy it now and start using it now.

  5. @Peter Blood…

    I know what you mean. I bought an iPad specifically to get away from my desk. It’s surprising, if not a bit shocking, to see how much LESS time I spend at my desk with my iPad.

    If you want a great, simple iPad “stand” check out the PropUp stand. When at home, my iPad usually resides in it… on the coffee table to check out IMDB while watching movies. On the kitchen counter following recipes with Epicurious. Web surfing and play games with it in various flopping positions.

    http://www.propupstore.com/

  6. You nailed it, Mr Reeee! the iPad is the first of a new breed, the “living-room computer”; even the svelte new MB Air is still more at home in the study/office/BR.

    And I’m wondering if Mr Blood knows he has painted himself as a character from Wall-e?

    Cheers

  7. That third chart says to me that 60% of the computers sold (in the US I assume) in the next 90 days will be Apple products. That does not seem possible. I think we are at 5% to 10% now. How could demand change that fast? How could production ramp up that fast?

    What am I missing here?

  8. @ enzos
    “And I’m wondering if Mr Blood knows he has painted himself as a character from Wall-e?”

    That’s funny since some people call me PALL*E. No though, I’m not a 300 pound slob, though used to be. I just like couch computing and the iPad is King of The Lounging Lazy Man’s Guide To The Internet. AAAaaaaaaahhhhh…

    And who ever said surfing the net was more fun sitting stiffly up in a chair anyways ain’t tried a couch. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />

  9. In January, Apple could very well report that its First quarter earnings pushed it past ExxonMobile. Merry XMas!

    I am so pleased with the 3G iPad. Instant on is killer.

    The iPad is what I’ve always wanted in a laptop but couldn’t afford it because I’d sink all my savings into a workhorse desktop.

    When I take a break from “working” on the computer, it’s nice to grab the Pad and find a corner of the house to do a little reading and check in with the rest of the world.

    Go AAPL!

  10. @Bunches of Munches:
    You need a quick lesson in economics. The Great Recession was the result of idiotic risk “avoidance” lending policies over the past decade or so, plus the housing bubble. It had NOTHING to do with the actions, or lack thereof, by the most recent session of Congress.

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