“With most forecasts, the exact number isn’t nearly as important as the direction of the call, but with Apple, I do have a specific breakdown,” Schwarz writes. “Certainly, the financial crisis of 2008 derailed much of the excitement over individual stocks, as it brought down all ships with the broad market. But now that the economic environment is improving, speculative capital will return to high-growth companies that are gaining market share. Apple is one of the few companies on Wall Street to have actually grown revenue during the recession. If it was able to grow during the recession, what will it do now?”
“My forecast is for Apple to sell an average of 14.8 million iPhones per quarter in 2011. This equates to a total of 59.2 million iPhone unit sales for the year or a 17.7% share of the expected 334 million unit/year smartphone market,” Schwarz writes. “See you at Apple $500.”
Full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]
see you soon
He used Ballmer’s favorite phrase “market share.” At least he found the word “revenue,” so the article balanced. I hope he’s correct!
That would give me a cool $1/2 million with my current 1000 shares. …it’s a happy thought. I’m sure I’ll be able to follow the stock price on my OLED tablet by then……..maybe.
It’s just a rounding error. When it’s between 1$ and $1000 you round DOWN. So really if AAPL hits $500, it’s really only $1.
won’t make it. once the price is securely above $200, apple will do a stock split and drop it back to $100.
@shadow of doubt – that’s just splitting hairs…
Own one now and it will indeed be worth $500 by 2012.
You realize that splits are taken in to account when these predictions are made, that if a stock splits, your shares are doubled, right? So one share at $500 equals 2 shares at $250.
Just checkin’.
Highly doubtful. Iphone may be the hip, cool thing now. But if it does sell at those numbers, it will just be another piece of technology. Every company has its cycle, and once a fad runs out it just goes back to the pack.
If Apple continues to expand to other carriers worldwide for the iPhone (including the U.S.), those 59 million phones and 17% share in 2011 will turn out to be very conservative. Apple has 17% now. They’re sure to grab at least 20% if not more.
Google has proved you don’t have to split…and they still don’t have anything you can actually touch…it’s all virtual. The hedge funds will use their top guaranteed stocks(AAPL) to level out their stinking stocks in their clients portfolios, so it will take Apple along time to get there…but maybe.
“But now that the economic environment is improving…”
Geez, I am down to working three days a week. And I feel lucky.
Improving economic environment? Not with these crazy liberals and the Bamster trying to ruin this country with their socialized health care reform and cap and tax …two among their nutty initiatives, the list of which is as long as their typical two thousand page bills that nobody reads.
It is a good thing that Apple is a multinational doing business all over the world. At least they can still survive if this country goes down the rat hole. And thank goodness for my 600 Apple shares. It is the only thing that is making me any money.
Since it’s unlikely that Apple’s profit will go up 150% in two years, AAPL at $500 would carry a much higher P/E than it does currently. The word “bubble” comes to mind. Won’t happen.
“Could the iPhone one day grow to 70% of the smartphone market? If it did, then we would need to raise our price target to $5,000 instead of $500. The point is, there is much upside to the current 13% global market share among smartphones and the current 2.5% market share among mobile phones in general.”
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10629249/4/apples-decade-how-it-can-hit-500.html
Keep in mind that that crazy $5,000 is not including anything else in Apple’s research and development. That includes the Mac tablet and that BILLION DOLLAR server farm that Apple is building.
There is a lot of unseen up side to Apple! Tsunami coming!
Well the good news is that Apple broke the $200 barrier and have stayed there for a while. So a surge upwards is possible. Another 20 points and my shares would have grown 200% (or 3 fold) in the last few years.
The iPhone success is important but so is the Mac. Breaking the 3MM barrier last quarter was amazing. Hopefully Apple will start inching up to 4MM. Apple can add value (lower cost or more features) to their products to help spur sales without compromising profit. They did this with the iPod and managed to take over the whole market with new products and aggressive pricing.
I don’t know what the iPhone potential is, but where I think Apple will continue to grow is in other markets. Their innovation has brought them to here:
1. Computers
2. iTunes / iPod / Music
3. iPhone
future:
4. TV (competing with cable/satellite with a subscription service)
5. The next big thing
The TV market is huge… like going into the phone market, they could easily be a big competitor in this market. Everyone has broadband and could do away with their Satelite/Cable subscriptions.
The only problem is that the recovering economy is soon going south in a huge way. Glad Apple has a big war chest and innovation to get through this coming hurricane.
@Raymond in DC: “Since it’s unlikely that Apple’s profit will go up 150% in two years”
I think they’re predicting that Apple’s revenue will go up making the stock worth more. If revenue goes up so will profits, not percentage wise, but in dollars of course.
And yes they are saying that, because they’re basing revenue on recession numbers and figure it can only go up post-recession.
Did I just repeat the article?
If history can tell anything it is not if Apple will reach $500 but rather if it will be 2011, 2012, or 20012.
In the financial 4Q 2004 revenue was $106 mill.
4Q 2005 it was $430 mill.
4Q 2006 it was $542 mill.
4Q 2007 it was $904 mill.
4Q 2008 it was $1.140 mill
4Q 2009 it was $1.670 mill
that’s a striking 1575% in just 5 years. The last two years of recession the increase has been 84% in revenue and above 300% in 3 years.
that should have been 2013
sorry
Oh yea of little faith. This fire has not yet begun to burn. I love graphs. Graph apple revenue, graph apple cash reserve, graph apple debt, graph apple earnings, i wish you could graph quality, customer service, user friendly experience, architecture, innovation.
I compare those graphs to any other stock alternative. Result I bet the farm on apple and plan to keep it that way.
then based on that equation, shares are worth $400 right now since they’ve already did a split. so if they split again, all they have to do is rise another $50 per and you’re at $500.
but i don’t think the author was splitting hairs, he was forecasting based on today’s share price.
“If you build it they will come”
The phenomenon of one company seizing the bulk of a market in the internet age, ie. Google in Search, eBay in Auctions, Amazon in books, and especially iTunes in Music, is what will drive Apple stock prices upward.
Of course the down side is that a company may come along and innovate the market from underneath you. That is what is happening to Palm and Blackberry with the iPhone.
a lot of folks are talking about this great rise in the stock price over a year. but lets remember what made it go down in the first place. it was NOT the economy. it was the gossip monger and FUD over Steve Jobs health. Analysts preaching that Steve is Apple and if he leaves no one has a clue what do to next cause they need Steve for everything including to tell them when to take a piss and shake it off for them. forgetting that he hand picked and trained all the folks working under him and that tech takes a good 5 years from idea to working unit so they know where they are going for a bit longer. plus they know ‘the steve jobs way’.
Stock holders forget this also and a panic started.
Now that Steve is back and more or less healthy (at least healthier) and they are putting more brains in the spotlight to show folks that Apple without Steve isn’t the end of the world, the stock price went back up to where it was and then a bit more. which is good but not the total ‘check this super jump’ that some folks are claiming has happened
@Bisse you mean profits surely not revenues. That is the amazing thing.
@shadow
I think you may be adrift on how splits work. If Apple were to do a 2 for 1 split at $200, you would get 2 shares worth $100 + or – market adjustments for each pre-split share you held. But then the shares would start to rise again and so it goes. When your 2 shares reach $250 each, your original share at $200 would have effectively appreciated to $500 vested in 2 shares. Of course Apple could split again when the shares reached $200 again in which case you would have 4 shares worth approx $400 + or – etc etc.
Hope this helps