Analyst: Apple preps new lower-cost 4GB iPhone; could ship 7 million total iPhones in Q109

“Apple is in the midst of building a new lower-cost iPhone that is helping the company manufacture record numbers of the handset in the first quarter of the year, according to UBS analyst Maynard Um. Specifying only ‘checks’ within the industry, the financial expert claims an iPhone with 4GB of storage is in the works and is helping Apple boost the number of phones shipped to 7 million in the first three months of 2009,” Electronista reports.

“Details of the alleged new model are unknown; as-yet unverified rumors have pointed to an iPhone nano in progress for a June release, though a separate rumor has also alluded to a 4GB, full-size iPhone that hasn’t materialized according to these unofficial plans,” Electronista reports.

Full article here.

Sam Oliver reports for AppleInsider, “UBS’s Manyard Um said he’s concerned that iPhone shipments for the December holiday quarter could come in below his 5 million unit estimate, representing a considerable sequential decline from the 6.9 million units shipped during the September quarter. However, ‘our UBS semis team and our checks indicate a new 4GB iPhone which may be helping to increase build rates,’ he wrote in a report to clients. Specifically, Apple’s said to have placed manufacturing orders for 7 million iPhones in each of the first two calendar quarters, 5 million in the third quarter, and 4 million in the fourth quarter, all of which are seen as ‘relatively good numbers.'”

Full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Jen” for the heads up.]

15 Comments

  1. You don’t save much manufacturing costs going from 8 to 4, so if this is for real, there may be other things to lower the price:

    No camera
    No GPS

    that kind of thing. None of which makes much sense. That grain of salt grows larger every day these self-referencing rumors appear.

  2. It’s true, you don’t save a whole lot dropping from 8GB to 4GB. But the savings can be real from 16GB down to 4GB. Is it possible that they are planing to boost the standard to 32GB/16GB or simply eliminate the 8GB entirely? Making the 4GB model the effective “nano”? The lower storage would appeal to those not THAT interested in the toys/games from the app store. Other feature tweaks – a 1.4MP camera vs a new 2.8 MP camera, no mic on the standard buds, other? – could trim the price a bit more without lowering the perceived value to “junk”.

  3. I really don’t think apple is going to release a “lesser” product out there. I just don’t think it’s their style. and kind of stupid also. I can see releasing a better 3G model and making the current spec one smaller and cheaper. that way they still moving forward. You gotta remember this not part of the iPod Family; it’s own line up and the next thing we’ll here is an iPhone shuffle. but who knows, this is just getting everyone’s hope up to just be let down in the end from “analyst” who get most of everything wrong.

  4. that is once again plain stupid guesswork and speculation by another analyst citing their “industry sources” (which of course are only existing in their fatasy).

    with nand-prices coming down apple could simply reduce the price to $149 or even $99 to stimulate demand. there is plenty of margin built into today’s price points. but how goblin already pointed out it is the plans that keep more people from buying it. in germany the iphone is already 1 euro with a 70 Euro monthly plan.

    of course when the handset is cheaper, the carriers have to subsidize it less, so there is hoping that the prices of the plans will come down if the iphone gets cheaper. the plans and exclusive carriers are the main obstacles for total world domination but i am sure that apple has a plan here.

    and why should apple place an order of only 5 million for q3 2009 when they will probably release a new model in july hence having the highest demand in front of them. just plain stupid, this analyst doesn’t even know the release cycle of the iphone.

  5. It does seem unlikely that a 4GB iPhone would cost Apple a whole lot less to make, but maybe they’re thinking of the 4GB model as a “loss leader.” I have an original 4GB iPhone and have never felt deprived in any way. Then again, I don’t watch feature films on my iPhone.

  6. My prediction, for June release:

    iPhone “nano”: All current features @4MB and 8MB in iPod Touch form factor.

    iPhone “3.5G”: 3MP camera, flash, iChat cam, new battery technology, additional working memory, and multitasking! @16MB and 32MB in current form factor.

    New OS adds cut and paste, but only allows multitasking on new hardware. Multitasking is enabled by better battery + lower power processor with no hit on battery life.

    Pricing with contract: $99, $199, $299, and $399.

    This is an example of a complete Apple product lineup that will capture customers at every price level. Any questions?

  7. So, it looks like next Wednesday Apple will definitively end the 1+ year “debate” on “whether” they could sell 8 million iPhones in 2008. I know it is academic, but will be nice to see the final number…..

  8. As many noted the iPhone regardless of the GB storage could be FREE and it will always have a ceiling on who can afford it due to the cost of data / voice plans. If they want to make a killing put out a $99 iPhone with pay as you go data / voice and they won’t make enough of them.

    With the current job reductions and budget tighening going on, pricery cell phone plans will be the first to go.

  9. apple doesn’t care to have a several different ipod models, like an ipod. the only difference they would have is storage space and thats where their price model comes in. The iPhone is a new product model in the way that they don’t need to have several different models because the know ITS THE SOFTWARE that makes the phone run great. apple will not look back and make an inferior phone, the cell phone game is different from the ipod realm which is why it’s on its own leg of the apple financial tripod.

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