Analyst Bajarin: ‘Apple’s market share in personal computers and smartphones will grow in 2009’

“The current economic crisis makes forecasting much more difficult this year than in the past, yet December still seems like a good time to ponder the year ahead. To that end, I’ve compiled a list of seven tech predictions—things I believe will happen over the next 12 months, plus one perhaps outrageous bonus prediction that could happen…if the stars align just right next year,” Tim Bajarin writes for PC Magazine.

Bajarin’s Tech Predictions for 2009:

1. Windows 7 will bring tech out of the doldrums

2. The tech industry will be the first to recover

3. The unemployed will start small businesses to survive—and will need PCs to make a living

4. Netbook sales will double in 2009

5. Smartphones will gain market share (vs. simple cell phones)

6. Google’s Android will expand its reach

7. Apple market share in PCs and smartphones will grow: Even in a downturn, Apple will grow its market share by at least 2 points in 2009. The ease-of-use message and the complete ecosystem are attracting more new customers to Apple stores, and the company will gain new Mac users at the expense of Windows vendors. If Apple delivers a low-cost laptop sometime in 2009, as some rumors have it, its market share could climb even more than 2 points in the coming year. Also, Apple will continue to innovate around the iPhone and even add some models at lower prices to attract new customers worldwide. Apple knows that it is gaining ground on competitors and will use the competition’s struggles in the coming year to its own advantage.

8. If the Apple iPhone makes any serious inroads into the enterprise, Microsoft will make a bid for RIM

Full article – recommended – here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Jen” for the heads up.]

17 Comments

  1. About Windows 7 bringing “tech out of the doldrums” in 2009 – What??

    Even Microsoft has said Windows 7 won’t ship until 2010 (which really means 2012).

    And what on earth do they think a bug-fixed version of Vista is going to do to excite people? Why do people always think that the NEXT version from Microsoft is going to be the one that doesn’t suck? MS has had these people chasing a carrot on a stick for decades now.

  2. It should read “Windoze 7 will attempt to keep the world in the Dark Ages of computing”.

    As far as his Apple prediction is concerned, I predict that jumping in water will cause you to get wet.

  3. “Apple knows that it is gaining ground on competitors and will use the competition’s struggles in the coming year to its own advantage.”

    The iPhone is already the best selling cell phone in the world. What competition do they need to catch?

  4. Sorry MDN but I think this guys predictions are just lame.

    In an economic downturn, people will spend less money. — do you think???

    Apple will grow… —– Brilliant, just Brilliant.

    Netbooks will sell 2x in 2009. —- since they were new in 2008 its pretty easy to sell 2x more.

    Unemployed people will buy pc computers and start businesses. — sorry but most people are pretty computer — er– dumb.. and if they are going to be busy starting a business, they are not going to want to spend all their time learning how to keep a pc running windows afloat.

    Just a few thoughts.

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  5. I doubt Microsoft will release “Windows 7” in 2009. Mid to late 2010 at the earliest. Microsoft has not even set a formal release date, and you know the actual release date will be at least one year later.

    And I don’t think Apple will release Snow Leopard in 2009 either. Given the state of Windows, there is no need for urgency. Leopard is a great OS.

    But I do agree that Apple will gain at least 2% in market share during 2009.

  6. If can predict with that, then most of the world can make advanced predictions. Geez, as a disclaimer- only the persons with a comma and legally brain die can not.

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  7. If Windows 7 is anything like the betas, I can’t see how it will make much of a dent in the in the current economic downturn. Windows 7 in its current beta incarnation looks, feels and behaves exactly like Vista, albeit with an even more bloated kernel.

    Microsoft, if it is to remain the leader, needs a major overhaul to the current Windows platform. The NT kernel has not aged well, and in light of the multi-processing, multi-threaded processors currently in production and in development, it is even more evident that a ground-up rewrite is desperately needed. But Microsoft doesn’t have the development partners that it once had to come up with a new platform. It should be interesting to see if Microsoft can do anything more than polish its existing turd.

  8. Let someone who has already gone through a Post Real Estate Bubble Recession predict the future for you instead.

    1: People will be spending the bulk of any income they get on their inflated mortgages. They can’t get credit for much of anything else. They have maxed out their credit cards for the holidays and the banks are going to pull them early next year for sure. There will be more layoffs and bank failures to come. It’s a slow death for the economy.

    2: Unemployment will rise and stay around 7-10% or more for a few years. Unfortunately unemployment rates will be a few points of a percentage higher for minorities like myself, this will lead to a large increase in prison and jail populations for everyone. A job in corrections is the safe bet for the non-educated.

    3: Apple Mac sales will decline substantially, people favoring cheap PC’s instead because they will realize all they need is a portable net/office software machine. 3D gaming has gone to consoles, desktop sales are dying. Apple will become viewed as luxury items and unworthy of further attention by the masses.

    4: Apple iPhone sales will decrease substantially not because of the iPhone, but because of the huge monthly fee’s from the phone company sometimes in excess of $60. People will favor pay as you go phones which are a mere $10-$20 a month to pay for, depending upon use. iPhones with their glass screens are fragile, I’ve seen three shattered screens so far this week. People realize they drop things and the cheaper the phone the better for most.

    What will help Apple is this.

    Creating products that SAVE or CREATE WEALTH.

    Apple is about the consumer market, and if the consumer can’t afford Apple’s pricey gadgets that serve no economic/income generating purpose, then people will avoid them for things that do.

  9. Smart Masses
    1. I spend very little of my income on my small mortgage and so do many folks out there who have lived in the same house from some time. bit of an over-generalization?
    2. who don’t know that? so? 90% of folks who want to work will be able to.
    3. Where did you get this? replacement sales alone would create a stable aggregate demand for macs. and i still hear every day about people switching to macs. still listening for those to switch to a pc but i never hear that for some strange reason.
    4. what an awful argument. why not just say people in the market for a honda will never buy a ferrari. those who want a cheap pre-paid phone don’t really want to use, say the internet in their hand, or have music, or get emails, or use calendar, and contacts – they just want to make a phone call and the pre-paid option is appealing to them. you are talking about different groups of consumers.

  10. @ Smart Masses,

    Just because you and the people who live near you don’t have a pot to piss in doesn’t mean that everyone else is in that predicament.

    News flash: The poor don’t need computers. The poor don’t buy computers. They have higher priorities like food, shelter, transportation, clothing, cigarettes, beer, bingo and the other necessities of life.

    A new Mac is the last thing on their list.

    If the percentage of poor people goes up by 5% or 10% Mac sales will not falter. People who can afford the best buy Macs. People who can’t make do.

    I would rather go back to pencil and paper than switch to a cheap Windows PC.

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