Yankee Group’s Howe: Seven overlooked iPhone 3G details (incl. in-store activation required in US)

“The blogging world is abuzz at Apple’s new $199 iPhone 3G, with most writers (including Yankee Group) bemoaning the lack of surprises in Steve Jobs Keynote,” Carl Howe blogs for Yankee Group. “But my analysis of the press releases that came out after the event actually produced more surprises than I would have expected, including:”

1. More upfront payments to Apple in exchange for no subscription payments.

2. In-store activation required in the US. Apple pioneered do-it-yourself phone provisioning through iTunes last year. Sadly, ATT has forced Apple to drop this unique feature, now requiring in-store activation of the phone, presumably to ensure that it earns back its iPhone subsidies from subscriptions. This has two significant implications: 1) Apple can no longer sell its phone online through the Apple Store, and 2) anyone waiting in line on July 11 for a phone should expect to wait hours longer as people buying phones each wait 10-12 minutes for in-store activation. This is one of the rare circumstance where Apple has decided to degrade the customer experience to please its carrier partners.

3. Multiple carriers in some countries.

4. iPod touch is poised for a price cut.

5. Apple’s toe dip into running an iPhone NOC.

6. Multi-mode location-based services.

“The seventh and final observation I’ll make is one that was hiding in plain site during the keynote. Steve Jobs dedicated nearly 40 minutes to third-party software demonstrations during the two-hour keynote,” Howe writes. “That’s more time than any other topic received. If there’s one thing we know about Jobs’ keynotes is that he doesn’t waste time on things that are unimportant to users. By dedicating nearly 1/3 of the keynote to third-party applications, Jobs served notice that the Apple iPhone is not just a consumer device, but is Apple’s third big developer platform, following the Mac and the iPod. And while it isn’t yet a third of Apple’s revenue, just wait. It will be — and sooner than you think.”

Full article – highly recommended as usual for Howe – here.

49 Comments

  1. It’s coming out 7/11 for a reason. There’s TONS of time to renegotiate the in-store activation thing. I think that what we’ll see is the OPTION to pay $199 and activate it in store, or pay $499, activate the phone at home, and then get $299 credit. The in-store thing is so un-Apple.

  2. “Sadly, ATT has forced Apple to drop this unique feature, now requiring in-store activation of the phone”

    I don’t think Apple was forced too much on that one. In-store activation will reduce the number of unlocked devices. + in some african/asian countries, people don’t have easy access to credit cards. So the on-line experience can’t be easily globalized. Conclusion: drip it.

    “This is one of the rare circumstance where Apple has decided to degrade the customer experience to please its carrier partners.”

    Apple is just making its life easier on that one, trust me. This is not like buying an iMac online.

  3. Any word on SMS forwarding, MMS, or video? If not, maybe 3rd party developers will come up with those apps in the App store.

    I’m not sure its worth the upgrade at this point if it doesn’t at least have those features… I hate to say it, but I’m hoping Samsung, LG or one of those guys comes out with a serious multi-touch competitor to the iPhone to force Apple to offer atleast these basic features.

  4. Apple’s toe dip into running an iPhone NOC.

    “This was a real sleeper, but an important one for developers. Apple has refused to allow developers to run background applications on the iPhone (understandable given power and stability requirements). Instead, Apple is providing a centralized push application service that can present badges, sounds, and text alerts on any number of phones at the same time. What Apple has actually created here is a poor man’s Blackberry Enterprise Server and Network Operations Center, complete with the associated single point of failure too. It’s too early to know how much developers will embrace this service, but it in essence makes the iPhone a cloud computing client.”

  5. I think a failure in the Apple NOC will only interrupt “push” services. With a working iPhone, it should still be possible to “pull” your e-mail from wherever. Certainly this will be true for POP and IMAP; not sure what the effect will be for Exchange, but you should still be able to VPN into your corporate network and pull mail from an exchange server. When the RIM NOC fails, all blackberry e-mail dies. I’m sure yesterday’s leaked announcement of RIM building a backup center in Plano TX wasn’t just a coincidence…

  6. @ Mac+

    If Apple isn’t getting revenue from subscriptions any more, then Apple doesn’t care whether the iPhone is on AT&T;’s network or T-Mobile’s network. Apple still made the same money on selling the iPhone.

    What no pundit has pointed out yet is that Apple also lost money on jailbroken iPhones which were running on another network. By having the iPhone subsidized by the carriers, Apple is guaranteed to receive its money for each and every iPhone sale.

    Plus, Apple still controls the AppStore, which is revenue it receives immediately upon sales occurring. An no expensive negotiating with multiple cell phone carriers.

  7. A NOC is a network operations center, used to manage connections to servers and end users. They will be needing one to monitor the ‘cloud’ for mobile me, and also for the availability of the servers handling all the 3rd party app ‘push’ messages

  8. FTFA:
    “Apple’s toe dip into running an iPhone NOC. This was a real sleeper, but an important one for developers. Apple has refused to allow developers to run background applications on the iPhone (understandable given power and stability requirements). Instead, Apple is providing a centralized push application service that can present badges, sounds, and text alerts on any number of phones at the same time. What Apple has actually created here is a poor man’s Blackberry Enterprise Server and Network Operations Center, complete with the associated single point of failure too. It’s too early to know how much developers will embrace this service, but it in essence makes the iPhone a cloud computing client.”

    (second emphasis is mine)

    And toe dip is a delicacy made from the hallux of the Guatemalan Howler Monkey. It’s ground to a powder, mixed with tequila into a paste and served with plantain chips. It’s a thoughtful wedding gift or the perfect snack for watching football riots.

  9. Just called Apple sales, and it is official that there will be no online sales of the new iPhone. I told the pleasant rep who I talked with that I live 80 miles from an AT&T;store and this will cause me to rethink a purchase of another iPhone If you feel the same, let Apple sales know at 800-676-2775.

  10. “The seventh and final observation I’ll make is one that was hiding in plain site during the keynote. Steve Jobs dedicated nearly 40 minutes to third-party software demonstrations during the two-hour keynote.”

    The biggest announcement yesterday was the one that had already been made in March. The App Store is going to change everything. The plethora of software is going to make the iPhone the must have internet device. Apple will have a lock on the language used to develop iPhone software. The Halo effect of iPhone development will spill over to the Mac.

    Everyone is spilling ink over the new hardware. It will be a mere footnote in the iPhone story. It’s the App Store that will be the real game changer.

  11. @ bizlaw:

    There are articles on both the WSJ.com and Businessweek.com which includes conversations with AT&T;Mobility’s CEO which where he states the purpose of instore activations is to prevent the spread of Jail broken iphone and that was part of the deal with Apple (paraphrasing here). The BW article further implies AT&T;will impose a penalty to users who do not activate their phones on AT&T;’s network within 60 days.

    So it pays to read your contract and yes… I do believe Apple is concerned about jail broken phones… If people have issues with the phones, there is a tendency to blame the phone (i.e. Apple) for any problems they have, thus soiling the reputation of our beloved gadget maker.

  12. @ BART

    Maybe we should lobby Apple to allow iPhone sales through AT&T;’s third party vendors – Best Buy, Radio Shack and others… the increased competition might also lead to other “freebies” (cases, car adapter’s, etc.)

  13. “The Halo effect of iPhone development will spill over to the Mac.”

    Bungie is porting to the iPhone? COOL ! !

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  14. In store activation is no problem for me. I don’t need one on 7/11. I’ll wait a few days until the lines of first day shoppers have diminished and go in. I have to travel 2 hours (Seattle) to an Apple store anyway. Why not make a weekend of it. Great food, entertainment, shopping and a new phone. Actually, it’s not just a phone…

    Off subject. My sister has a new iMac. The second sis to come to the light from the darkness. iChat is so fun. I missed the laughter of hanging with the sisters. Not any more.

  15. $10 More a deal breaker?

    You pay more at your house for high speed internet vs. dialup, so how is this different?

    Plus you save $200 off the cost of the phone, so that makes the total cost difference very small for a much better phone.

  16. In-store activation? Yuck.

    $10 more a month over two years, for a price savings of $200? Are you trying to tell me that’s a good deal? Yuck.

    I didn’t get an original iPhone. Now I have two fewer reasons to get a 3G iPhone.

    Let’s hope it pays dividends for the Mac.

  17. @Original Shiva – I’m with you on both counts. I’ve just recently been released from my two-year sentence in Sprint hell and will hold my clunky old phone and service until the furor subsides at nearby Apple stores (two within twenty minutes here in St. Paul) then walk in and snag one. Or maybe two.

    And iChat is phenomenal. I haven’t been able to convince most of my friends or family members to switch to Mac but one buddy in Ohio has one and, hell, it’s like sitting in the room talking and laughing with him. It’s one of the very best things about owning a Mac.

    @Ampar – “Toe dip.” Priceless.

  18. Bitch…..moan…….bitch………moan.

    There was not enough reason for me to consider upgrading to an iPhone 3G, so I’ll stick with my older iPhone. EDGE is fine for the little email checking I do when not WiFi connected.

  19. The in-store activation is going to cause MDN to lose out. I was going to buy my iPhone on-line via their apple store ad and give them some sales credit. I really prefer ordering from Apple directly. There isn’t an Apple store here in LA (lower alabama).

  20. Watching the keynote, I noticed that the battery life on the new iPhone is better for Edge than for 3G. That implies that the iPhone 3G is still Edge capable. That implies that you can still get the cheaper AT&T;deal with the new iPhone.

    Any speculation on that?

  21. “In-store activation required in the US.”

    No in-store activation was the thing that pushed me over the edge into buying the iPhone on the first day last year. Great idea.

    The change may stop me from waiting in line the first day for the 3G iPhone, but will have to weigh it against the chance that it will sell out in my area on day 1.

  22. I expect I’ll wait a few months so that the “spotty faced mouth-breathers” at my local Rogers outlet can figure out that the iPhone is something they can actually use and sell.

    By then, they may have converted, and perhaps even migrated!

  23. At&t;sucks Because ???

    I was going to get an iphone at At&t;, but they said I HAD to Pay Them $1000 Deposit to get service ???

    HOWEVER if i got the Motorola C168i-PAYG
    It is A 3G phone.

    I Could sign up with no Deposit, and that I would be Able swap an ipone on to my plain after 90 Days

    Well My 90 Days are up, But the new iphones are out so I’m waiting for that.

    Anyone Want to Bet, There Going to Screw Me AGAIN !!!

    PS. I Have heard of a lot of people having this happen…

  24. Is the iphone 3G really priced at 199 or is that just for new ATT customers? And if your not a new ATT customer you have to buy it without the discount, because i know currently ATT doesn’t allow you to use your upgrade discount on the iphone, if so what is the real price of the iphone?

  25. @ 199 really?

    Yea, there was interview with AT&T;Mobility’s CEO where he said anyone can upgrade or buy the iPhone for $199… after all, after 2 years, they would have recouped $240 from you for just the extra $10 price increase on the data plan alone… why would they deny them selves that….

    BTW, as a former Verizon Customer who switched to AT&T;for the iPhone… I’d have to say AT&T;’s Prices (with Rollover) are MORE THAN FAIR compared to Verizon! I never worry about going over my minutes with AT&T;- U get free calls to ANY AT&T;customer – landline, business, wireless, or home – plus rollover minutes… A VERY GOOD DEAL compared to Verizon.

  26. “By dedicating nearly 1/3 of the keynote to third-party applications, Jobs served notice that the Apple iPhone is not just a consumer device, but is Apple’s third big developer platform, following the Mac and the iPod.”

    Um, didn’t he see the nice little photo of the three-legged stool that Steve showed right at the START of the presentation? Hell, he even practically SAID it was so.

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