“Apple’s decision to lower Apple TV’s price to $229 is eerily similar to Toshiba’s announcement on Monday that it’s lowering the price on its HD DVD players,” Phillip “Swanni” Swann writes for TVPredictions.com. “When you’re losing — and losing bad — you lower the price. And with Apple TV’s sales numbers to date, it’s been a loser.”
“However, even at $229, Apple TV will struggle to generate significant sales,” Swann writes.
“Americans have demonstrated that they have ‘set-top fatigue,’; their interest in buying yet another TV set-top is limited at best. Just ask Moviebeam, or even the retail division of TiVo,” Swann writes. “Set-top fatigue is one of the reasons why Blu-ray and HD DVD player sales have lagged as well; it’s not just the format war. Prices need to be lower to persuade consumers to give a new TV set-top service a chance, particularly in a down economy.”
“If Apple really wants Apple TV to succeed, $229 is a good start. And, adding the high-def movies is a no-brainer,” Swann writes. “But most consumers will decide that they can get those HD (and SD) movies from more convenient (and easier-to-use) sources such as cable’s Video on Demand, premium movie channels and your basic DVD player. (And, in time, even the Blu-ray players will be under $200, if not lower than that.)”
“Plus, they won’t have to invest in a new product that seems foreign to them, such as the Apple TV device,” Swann writes. “Consequently, I stick to my prediction that Apple TV will be a bust.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: The last we heard from the eerily unprescient “Swanni” was less than a month ago when he predicted that “Apple will dump Apple TV in 2008.”
Did Apple sound like they were dumping Apple TV today? Hello? Anyone?
Back in October 2005, soothsayer “Swanni” gazed into his occluded crystal ball and predicted that “‘The video iPod will be Steve Jobs’ folly.”
Smirk.
Apple TV is now more affordable. For free, Apple TV, including all 800,000 or so of them that are already out there in the hand of users, have instantly become more capable. Apple TV can now instantly rent HD movies from all of the major film studios with Dolby Digital 5.1 surround sound, now with no computer required. All of that on top of the already useful ability to bring TV shows, music, photos (now from .Mac and Flickr, too), podcasts, and YouTube videos to your television and/or home theater system.
The Apple Stores will drive consumer education and awareness for the device. Just as the video iPod was not Steve Jobs’ folly, Apple TV will not be a bust and Apple will not dump it in 2008.
Related articles:
TV analyst predicts Apple will dump Apple TV in 2008 – December 21, 2007
TV analyst says Apple TV will bomb – March 21, 2007
TV analyst says Apple’s video-capable iPod is a bust because he says so – May 03, 2006
TV analyst blows it, says Apple’s 12 million video downloads ‘a big disappointment’ – February 08, 2006
TV analyst’s uninformed prediction: ‘video iPod will be Steve Jobs’ folly’ – October 12, 2005
Yes, Zmarc. I forgot about that one.
Thanks
When they add the iptv support and I’ll be able to bypass the cable company and only subscribe to the channels i want… Then I’ll buy one. I think it’ll happen in the next year or two.
DVR capability is the ONLY thing keeping me from Apple TV. I am about to switch from satellite to cable, and will use TiVO (which means I’ll be committed for a while due to subscription and cost of the unit).
I wish Apple would add DVR…
Petey says “Why mess around like that when you can just press one button on your Apple tv remote to rent and watch a movie that downloads instantly???
This is the very reason why Apple is succeeding where all other companies (including Netflix) fail… it’s called ‘user experience’.”
Bingo. Sure those that like a physical plate and watch a lot of movies will like Netflix mail. GREAT. THose that spend all of their time renting and coping can do that. GREAT.
But Apple is looking for the sweet spot. Those people that enjoy simplicity and will pay for it. High profits and lots of happy people.
Apple has said more than once that it is not into making crappy hardware or a race to the bottom of the price barral (sp). So why do people insist on trying to push them into it?????
Hey, want a cheap mp3 player, buy one. There are still lots of them out there. I have 3 I will sell you cheap. They all work, have music on them, have user replaceable batteries, etc. I just keep using my gen one iPod. And I am quite happy with it. I am lookng at a video model but still have not decided which way to go. But this ease of use to buy a dvd and drop it onto my new iPod video, or rent a couple of movies for the next work trip, sure make it a tempting toy.
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MDN “way” I think they read our comments.
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“TV analyst predicts revamped Apple TV will be a bust”
It runs on triple Ds?
This Apple TV could be a game changer. At the very least it will add billions to Apple’s bottom line with very little or no hardware development. This thing probably didn’t take half the time or money to invent like the iPhone—they just had to get some more content and have the HD/5.1 option.
This past year, Apple totally dominated the video download market, yet they had very little selection, no HD, no 5.1 surround AND you needed a computer.
Now they have fixed all those things and I predict AppleTV will be a HUGE cash cow.
The cable companies have just lost a very big reason for their existence.
“TV analyst predicts revamped Apple TV will be a bust”
Yes, TV is starting to get a feel for this market. It may be squeezed initially from all the others, but will hold up pointedly to the licking that that they will try, and buy the bi, they will end up being the suckers….Excuse me, I need a smoke.
Apple almost fixed every aspect that made it a none appalling product. If it wasn’t for the greedy studios forcing Apple to put out new releases 30 days late, it would be perfect. I am on board. As soon as I can get the funds, I am going to get that and a Time Capsule.
Swanni, how i love ya, how i love ya but wrong you are my Swanniii.
If lowering price is a sign of failure (sometimes it is) then someone better sit Jobs down and tell him the iPhone is a monumental, 4-million-sold, 19.5%-in-3-months-market-share flop!
I’d definitely get one but that would mean upgrading from my CRT TV and I’m not ready for that. Would be nice to have everything in one spot and rent the movies straight from that box.
Philip Swann is a jerk. He sent me a rude email after I commented on one of his stupid predictions a year ago. I was polite, and yet he was rude. I suspect that is his normal personality.
“He sent me a rude email . . . “
Why am I not surprised? This shithead is a self-anointed expert and a self-important blowhard.
“Only a Mac fanatic would say the video iPod has been a success. Nielsen reports that only 2 percent of content on video iPods are actually videos. People didn’t buy into Jobs’ vision for small-screen video devices. And they won’t buy into Apple TV, either.”
– Phillip Swann (Wednesday, January 16, 2008, 10:07 AM)
He’s also probably extremely bitter that he looks like
” rel=”nofollow”> an effeminate Andy Dick.
I no longer have a standard TV connected DVD player (all my DVD’s are stored on my Computer and available through my Apple TVs, I no longer have a CD changer all my CDs are stored on my Computer and available through my Apple TVs. I do no plan to buy any type of high definition DVD player ever. My TV Tuner is connected to my Computer that captures and encodes the few Broadcast shows that we might want to see and they are available on my Apple TVs too.
Let’s see I have a 42″ LCD monitor connected to an Apple TV that is connected to my stereo in the family room (No Cable/Sat Box, No DVD Player, No CD Player, No VCR, No TiVo), Office and Bedroom 42″ LCD monitors connected to Apple TVs with sound from great stereo systems (and again No Cable/Sat Box, No DVD Player, No CD Player, No VCR, No TiVo).
I don’t rent many movies so NetFlix is a waste of money, The Local Video Rental Block Buster place sux. I’ve bought a few movies from iTunes and the quality was good. HD Movies will be better.
The Apple TV for everyone I know, that owns one, it has replaced one or two of the components in their home A/V system. While I’ll admit I’m at the far end of the spectrum as my home A/V Systems now is comprised of 42″ HD Monitors (no Tuners), Digital PerAmps, AMPs, Airport Expresses, Apple TVs (in storage with my LPs is a Turntable, with my DVDs is a DVD player, with my video tapes is my VCRs (one VHS and one Betamax) and with my CDs is the CD Changer)
I have a friend that told me if he could sit in his easy chair and order/rent a movie with his AppleTV it would replace his DVD player and if they had some HD Movies it would be even better cause he just bought a new HD TV. He doesn’t own any DVDs they just rent them. His wife loves buying Music Video’s from iTunes and watching them on the TV using the Apple TV. He’s ripping their CDs to the computer cause his CD Player died and he doesn’t want to buy a new one when his AppleTV can replace it and he can pack away all the CDs into a closet.
High-Def DVD player – $200.00
SD upscaling DVD Player (mid priced major brand) – $150.00
CD Changer (mid priced major brand) – $175.00
Total + $ 525.00
Replacing them with an Apple TV (average price) – $279.00
The space savings created from dumping the old media players and all that outdated media. Priceless!!!!
For most people I think the Apple
Petey –
LOL! Looking in the mailbox is no hassle at all, and because we’re often on foot (our transportation preference), walking past a mailbox is pretty easy too.
But I see your point. From an environmental perspective, I would love to do away with physical distribution altogether. And while Netflix is currently less expensive than Apple downloads, I can see this changing in the near future. Sky
@ken1w
You can rent regular movies via your TV as well. There are no restrictions on the format of the movies you rent that are based on whether you rent from TV or Computer.
As soon as they bring movie rentals to the UK i’ll be getting one
I can’t wait to get one! No way near a bust to me…
To me everyone forgets the benefits of integrating iPhoto into an easy way to share/show its content. Ditto for iTunes…
This is how Apple TV sales can take off successfully:
10 free rentals if you can watch them all in 24 hours.
But seriously, 5-10 free movie rentals with purchase of Apple TV will help sales big time. Or maybe even a few free older movies and a few new movies.
That’s the only way I see Apple TV taking off in a big way quickly. Get folks started and comfortable using the system watching movies. If they like it, they will be back for more. Everything else will seem so yesterday.
“Only a Mac fanatic would say the video iPod has been a success. Nielsen reports that only 2 percent of content on video iPods are actually videos. People didn’t buy into Jobs’ vision for small-screen video devices. And they won’t buy into Apple TV, either.”
Geeze.
Perhaps we should all chip in $5 each and buy Swanni-Boy his very own Apple TV. That way, he doesn’t have to speak from complete and utter ignorance.
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