“Apple’s decision to lower Apple TV’s price to $229 is eerily similar to Toshiba’s announcement on Monday that it’s lowering the price on its HD DVD players,” Phillip “Swanni” Swann writes for TVPredictions.com. “When you’re losing — and losing bad — you lower the price. And with Apple TV’s sales numbers to date, it’s been a loser.”
“However, even at $229, Apple TV will struggle to generate significant sales,” Swann writes.
“Americans have demonstrated that they have ‘set-top fatigue,’; their interest in buying yet another TV set-top is limited at best. Just ask Moviebeam, or even the retail division of TiVo,” Swann writes. “Set-top fatigue is one of the reasons why Blu-ray and HD DVD player sales have lagged as well; it’s not just the format war. Prices need to be lower to persuade consumers to give a new TV set-top service a chance, particularly in a down economy.”
“If Apple really wants Apple TV to succeed, $229 is a good start. And, adding the high-def movies is a no-brainer,” Swann writes. “But most consumers will decide that they can get those HD (and SD) movies from more convenient (and easier-to-use) sources such as cable’s Video on Demand, premium movie channels and your basic DVD player. (And, in time, even the Blu-ray players will be under $200, if not lower than that.)”
“Plus, they won’t have to invest in a new product that seems foreign to them, such as the Apple TV device,” Swann writes. “Consequently, I stick to my prediction that Apple TV will be a bust.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: The last we heard from the eerily unprescient “Swanni” was less than a month ago when he predicted that “Apple will dump Apple TV in 2008.”
Did Apple sound like they were dumping Apple TV today? Hello? Anyone?
Back in October 2005, soothsayer “Swanni” gazed into his occluded crystal ball and predicted that “‘The video iPod will be Steve Jobs’ folly.”
Smirk.
Apple TV is now more affordable. For free, Apple TV, including all 800,000 or so of them that are already out there in the hand of users, have instantly become more capable. Apple TV can now instantly rent HD movies from all of the major film studios with Dolby Digital 5.1 surround sound, now with no computer required. All of that on top of the already useful ability to bring TV shows, music, photos (now from .Mac and Flickr, too), podcasts, and YouTube videos to your television and/or home theater system.
The Apple Stores will drive consumer education and awareness for the device. Just as the video iPod was not Steve Jobs’ folly, Apple TV will not be a bust and Apple will not dump it in 2008.
Related articles:
TV analyst predicts Apple will dump Apple TV in 2008 – December 21, 2007
TV analyst says Apple TV will bomb – March 21, 2007
TV analyst says Apple’s video-capable iPod is a bust because he says so – May 03, 2006
TV analyst blows it, says Apple’s 12 million video downloads ‘a big disappointment’ – February 08, 2006
TV analyst’s uninformed prediction: ‘video iPod will be Steve Jobs’ folly’ – October 12, 2005
I own an AppleTV. Hopefully this change makes it more useful. IMHO
This is the instant video rental service that will be a success. Blu-
ray and HD DVD haven’t succeeded yet because people aren’t willing to pay $800 for an HD player when people don’t even know which format will be around in 2 years (we remember Betamax too well).
Apple dropped the price similar to why it dropped the price on the iPhone – grab market share. The more people using your products helps cement you as the king of the hill, and in this new video content delivery market, being the first and best known is very important.
I own an Apple TV, and it hasn’t been plugged into my TV for months and months. It was wasting a HDMI port.
This upgrade gives me some hope, maybe the movie rentals will be enough.
So, I will set the Apple TV once the update is out and give it another try. Hopefully the second time is the charm.
Glad the update was free. It really needed to be.
Strange that Apple would include Flickr but not Picasa Web Albums. They have YouTube videos after all, so Google already has their foot in the door, so to speak.
That Swanni dude writes like he has a stick up his ass all the time. Pay no attention to him, now or ever. This guy is not right very often.
I’ve tried Shaw’s Video-on-Demand service, and what a pain in the *** it is. Horrible navigation, variety, long waits for it to load up…. and then it’s not the cheapest shop in town. I don’t call that “more convenient. Apple TV is going to bust open this industry. People want smaller, and Apple is delivering. Here in this town, the local digital cable boxes are bulky and have their own fan for cooling, to watch TV!!! Unbelievable.
This time the “swanni” might be right. There’s still not enough to the TV to convince me to buy one. This is a typically reverse market case where Apple needs to load in features to convince people to drop their current set-top boxes. Right now, the TV is nothing more than a proprietary merchandising platform that blatantly limits anything else I might want to use it for.
Few give a hoot about Flickr, YouTube and the rest of that crap.
There was a reason they choose the annual accounting for the Apple TV… because they *planned* to continue to enhance it. They wanted to get the box out there, into homes, so they could tell studios there was an established custome base. 800,000 is nothing to balk at. Add in all the iPods, iPhones, and computers, and it was impossible for the studios to deny Apple rights to rent movies. This was all planned, a long-term plan.
TV is dead.
The funny thing about Swann’s analysis is that Apple TV is a VOD service. It’s a legitimate alternative to Cable TV and Optical Disc players. It may not be right for every customer out there, but it’s certainly a player (in the good way).