TV analyst predicts revamped Apple TV will be a bust

“Apple’s decision to lower Apple TV’s price to $229 is eerily similar to Toshiba’s announcement on Monday that it’s lowering the price on its HD DVD players,” Phillip “Swanni” Swann writes for “When you’re losing — and losing bad — you lower the price. And with Apple TV’s sales numbers to date, it’s been a loser.”

“However, even at $229, Apple TV will struggle to generate significant sales,” Swann writes.

“Americans have demonstrated that they have ‘set-top fatigue,’; their interest in buying yet another TV set-top is limited at best. Just ask Moviebeam, or even the retail division of TiVo,” Swann writes. “Set-top fatigue is one of the reasons why Blu-ray and HD DVD player sales have lagged as well; it’s not just the format war. Prices need to be lower to persuade consumers to give a new TV set-top service a chance, particularly in a down economy.”

“If Apple really wants Apple TV to succeed, $229 is a good start. And, adding the high-def movies is a no-brainer,” Swann writes. “But most consumers will decide that they can get those HD (and SD) movies from more convenient (and easier-to-use) sources such as cable’s Video on Demand, premium movie channels and your basic DVD player. (And, in time, even the Blu-ray players will be under $200, if not lower than that.)”

“Plus, they won’t have to invest in a new product that seems foreign to them, such as the Apple TV device,” Swann writes. “Consequently, I stick to my prediction that Apple TV will be a bust.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: The last we heard from the eerily unprescient “Swanni” was less than a month ago when he predicted that “Apple will dump Apple TV in 2008.”

Did Apple sound like they were dumping Apple TV today? Hello? Anyone?

Back in October 2005, soothsayer “Swanni” gazed into his occluded crystal ball and predicted that “‘The video iPod will be Steve Jobs’ folly.”


Apple TV is now more affordable. For free, Apple TV, including all 800,000 or so of them that are already out there in the hand of users, have instantly become more capable. Apple TV can now instantly rent HD movies from all of the major film studios with Dolby Digital 5.1 surround sound, now with no computer required. All of that on top of the already useful ability to bring TV shows, music, photos (now from .Mac and Flickr, too), podcasts, and YouTube videos to your television and/or home theater system.

The Apple Stores will drive consumer education and awareness for the device. Just as the video iPod was not Steve Jobs’ folly, Apple TV will not be a bust and Apple will not dump it in 2008.

Related articles:
TV analyst predicts Apple will dump Apple TV in 2008 – December 21, 2007
TV analyst says Apple TV will bomb – March 21, 2007
TV analyst says Apple’s video-capable iPod is a bust because he says so – May 03, 2006
TV analyst blows it, says Apple’s 12 million video downloads ‘a big disappointment’ – February 08, 2006
TV analyst’s uninformed prediction: ‘video iPod will be Steve Jobs’ folly’ – October 12, 2005