Cringely’s 2008 predictions: Ballmer out, Apple replaces the mouse, licenses Mac OS X, more

Apple Store OnlinePBS’s Robert X. Cringely has made his 2008 predictions. Here are a few:

• Microsoft will indefinitely extend the life of Windows XP, acknowledging the failure of Windows Vista, which will require another generation of hardware (and another $5 billion in R&D) to finally look good three years from now.

• Not only will Bill Gates be retiring from Microsoft in 2008, CEO Steve Ballmer will, too. No word yet on his successor.

• As part of its transition from a PC company to a consumer electronics and content company, Apple will introduce — and trumpet in a huge media show — its replacement for the mouse. Really.

Apple will introduce a subnotebook/tablet computer/media player.

• Along the same lines look for OS X to bifurcate clearly into two lines — Mac OS X and plain OS X (for devices like the iPhone) with Apple licensing (non-Mac) OS X to a few companies, including Sony.

• Here’s one that will totally blow your mind: Apple will build into some Macs support for the Windows API, allowing Mac and Windows apps to run side by side with no need for virtualization software except to run Linux.

Cringely looks at his 2007 predictions’ successes and failures and gives many more 2008 predictions, including one that may be the source of the recent “Apple will drop Akamai for Google” rumor, here.

64 Comments

  1. @nobodi

    I think you are right on the money there buddy!
    And, I couldn’t have said it better myself.
    Wait one minute. Ha ha, didn’t I… ahhhhhhh shoot.

    Anyways, matters not. I am anxious to see what Apple brings.

    Apple has not changed that sad single buttoned oval mouse in years. Why? You may have asked? Because, R&D;has gone into detailing a replacement. Apples’ team sees the ‘mouse’ as simply a dead device. When “iJesture” or Apple Touch or whatever they call it… it will be in the form of a keyboard device. Made for positional input, data input, gesture input. One device – wireless wifi enabled. With the worlds eyes on Multi-Touch for the rest of us. Yeah yah, call it a small ass table. But this is one smart ass keyboard that has a multi-personality too. Built-in memory, built-in processor, built-in osx because it’s also our new idevice or sub-notebook.

    You know you want it.

  2. @Jeremy

    I almost died laughing like the mouse when I re-read your comment.

    “that guy is a heart attack or stroke just waiting to happen”,

    thx for the laugh.

    Sadly, though, it could be true – you know,
    Bummer having a Big Mac Attack.

    Oh my gosh… there’s a new Mac Commercial in there somewhere.

  3. Well, in the Embedded field, Linux is just too commonly used.
    It would be a tough fight to compete there. Is the core Darwin bit of MacOS still Open Source? That’s what we are talking about, I think.

    A “touch” keyboard would be a bad idea. Serious typists need a good quality keyboard with curved keys and tactile feedback.
    I wish Apple would aim at supplying most ergonomic, rather than one that looks pretty.

    A Mac is NOT a Windows box. If you want windows, buy windows. Making it Windows compatible would just kill off native Mac software.

    Ballmer? Don’t know, don’t care, doesn’t matter.
    Vista? Slow start, but it’ll get there. Suffers from the feeling that XP is “good enough” for most people. No need to upgrade.

    Tablet/Newton/Super iPhone? Well of course it’s coming. The MacOS Touch operating system is obviously still in it’s infancy. I can’t imagine it being left to do the limited roles it’s currently used in.

  4. Microsoft will have no choice but to “indefinitely” support Windows XP. That’s not a prediction, but an “assumed” fact.

    The Balmer prediction makes sense. If Gates is not there as Chairman, the Microsoft Board will get rid of him at an early opportunity.

  5. I still can’t picture in my head how I would use a program like Adobe Illustrator or Photoshop without the mouse (or a pen). All those presision detalis. Click drag, will drw a box on screen (if you’re drawing a box/square) rubbing out with the eraser tool etc…
    can’t see myself doing that with my fingers.

  6. AppleEasy.com….
    Virus’s and such don’t come pre bundled with windows software (well ok very occasionally something will slip through… (Sony. But that wasn’t strictly a virus.)). Virus’s come from the web, email etc…
    I’m sure it would be possible to run Windows guff purley on OSX and avoid virus;s getting in because the mac would be connected to the net the same as it is now, as a mac. Just use mac Safari not the windows one.

  7. iPhone £249.00 (16GB) + Update + SDK + Movie Rentals + Sing Along

    iPod Shuffle £45.00 (2GB) 4 Colours + RED
    +30
    iPod Card £75.00 (4GB) 4 Colours + RED
    +24
    iPod Nano £99.00 (8GB) 4 Colours + Movie Rentals + Sing Along
    +30
    iPod Nano £129.00 (16GB) 4 Colours + Movie Rentals + Sing Along
    +60
    iPod Touch £189.00 (16GB) + Update + SDK + Movie Rentals + Sing Along
    +60
    iPod Touch £249.00 (32GB) + Update + SDK + Movie Rentals + Sing Along

    AppleTV £189.00 (80GB) + Movie Rentals + Sing Along
    +60
    AppleTV £249.00 (160GB) + Movie Rentals + Sing Along

    iPod Classic £159.00 (80GB) 2 Colours
    +60
    iPod Classic £219.00 (160GB) 2 Colours

    New Firewire 800 Docks for iPods and iPhones

    iTunes with 24 Hour TV/Movie Rentals for iPhone, iPod Nano/Touch and Apple TV+ Enhanced Albums with High Quality Booklet, Lyrics, Videos, Pictures + High Quality DRM Free Music

    New Slim but wider Mac mini 4 + Colours + Red
    New Slim MacBook/MacBook Pro Range 4 Colours + Red

    Enhanced iMac with iSight HD

    New Apple Displays with iSight HD and New Apple Cinema Displays
    New 2.1 and 5.1 Surround Sound Systems

    One more thing…

    New Multi-Touch Aluminium Mouse

  8. 1) In first place: M$ MUST keep Balmer! It’s the best way to insure the end of the plague that M$ represent for our evolution!

    2) Secondly, Apple MUST have a new and worthy MOUSE to come out (like a Logitec’s Revolution, for instance) as M$ menaces to buy up Logitec! Apple must have a valuable and professionnal alternative to offer to M$’s b…t!

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