• Microsoft will indefinitely extend the life of Windows XP, acknowledging the failure of Windows Vista, which will require another generation of hardware (and another $5 billion in R&D) to finally look good three years from now.
• Not only will Bill Gates be retiring from Microsoft in 2008, CEO Steve Ballmer will, too. No word yet on his successor.
• As part of its transition from a PC company to a consumer electronics and content company, Apple will introduce — and trumpet in a huge media show — its replacement for the mouse. Really.
• Apple will introduce a subnotebook/tablet computer/media player.
• Along the same lines look for OS X to bifurcate clearly into two lines — Mac OS X and plain OS X (for devices like the iPhone) with Apple licensing (non-Mac) OS X to a few companies, including Sony.
• Here’s one that will totally blow your mind: Apple will build into some Macs support for the Windows API, allowing Mac and Windows apps to run side by side with no need for virtualization software except to run Linux.
Cringely looks at his 2007 predictions’ successes and failures and gives many more 2008 predictions, including one that may be the source of the recent “Apple will drop Akamai for Google” rumor, here.
Prediction: Apple will NOT license OS X or Mac OS X.
You heard it here first!
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”raspberry” style=”border:0;” />
Those are some bold (and crazy) predictions.
“• As part of its transition from a PC company to a consumer electronics and content company, Apple will introduce — and trumpet in a huge media show — its replacement for the mouse. Really.”
They already did at MWSF last year. They call them fingers.
I’m looking forward to the iBot.
FemBot by Apple.
Once they get that baby working all night on one recharge, it’ll be the end of Man.
I agree about Balmer, been saying it for six months now.
Vista sucks, and he was the guy in charge from day one all the way to the shipping product.
I thought I read those a couple days ago. Anyhow, the prediction that he won’t make any more predictions is bound to come true!
The no-mouse idea could be true if Apple releases a keyboard based on touch technology.
Solid surface, no keys, and user customizable via a keyboard system preferences panel.
The keyboard supports what ever language your system is setup for… no need for a separate language keyboard.
Don’t need a numeric keypad? A select area of the keyboard can be used as either a numeric keypad or a touch pad (goodbye mouse) and you can switch between the two with a touch on a programmed hotspot.
Oh yeah, I’d buy one.
Microsoft is not smart enough to get rid of Ballmer
Given his track record, I’m <sarcasm> SURE </sarcasm> all of these predictions will come true.
CrossOver does a pretty good. So, to say, Wingdong XD running on a MAC without virtualization; I don’t find that mind blowing.
Yet, I love the notion of “Bummer” leaving MacroSloth. Now that would be very wise of them.
The best thing for apple would be if Balmer stayed for a few more years. At least until our market share gets above 25%.
Prediciton: Analysts will continue to get paid for making baseless predictions and idiots like MDN will continue to post them as news.
Apple loves SONY… well Jobs does. If not, maybe he just wants to keep his enemies close-by?
Still, to partner this way could be good… EVEN if I can’t imagine this occurring in my wildest dreams.
Oh my life as a visionary is over.
The headline is just plain wrong, he is predicting licensing of OS X not Mac OS X
I just don’t get all the negative predictions for Microsoft, I mean, Apple just figured out the two-button mouse after copying it from Microsoft. Now this Cringely moron thinks Apple can come up with a revolutionary new device? Where in Apple’s past have they done anything game-changing or interesting? Dork.
And don’t ever put ‘Ballmer’ and ‘retire’ in the same sentence. It makes me and legions of Windows enthusiasts uncomfortable. Microsoft is nothing without Steve Ballmer.
Your potential. Our passion.™
“acknowledging the failure of Windows Vista”
Microsoft admits failure (especially on something that big)?
Not a chance.
Most of that is the same (type of) bullshit we hear every year. Difference between writers and designers is, that latter ones have to face the limits of technology in the final product.
You know, if they didn’t (have to), Jetsons would look sooo “20 years ago”.
Licensing Mac OS X would only work if 1) Apple would get lot of money per PC+OS X sold, 2) they would have the control of what will be released [CrappyHW+Mac OS X = bad ], and 3) Apple would like to change the engine since they are already firing on all cylinders and revving it like F1 V10 (19k rpm). Apple could speed gain 20% OS market share with licensing, but there’s a huge risk that Mac sales would drop. And it would be hard to end the licensing without going to court.
Apple’s gonna replace the mouse? Cringely doesn’t say how, just what. Writers vs. designers.
I would like to see Ballmer dictate every single move that Microsoft makes, ’till he dies. They should also slap a big Microsoft logo on every product they make. As a Mac user, I really like the way things went. OK Windows is crap, but Apple hadn’t bought NeXT, I wouldn’t have a MacBook running Mac OS X. Why the MS logo? So that the rest of the world would learn that MS = crap.
Well, Apple OS X Tiger for PC wil be an huge succes .. HP & Sony ?
The real shame is it will improve Microsoft if Ballmer goes
then again, you cant do much about bad breeding
The Mac OS will never implement the Windows API. Predicting this is beyond stupid.
Ballmer will be forced out…it will be just called retirement
to not give the company any more bad vibes than it already has. How many times can it be said that Apple makes its money on hardware, not software. Apple will NOT licence any form of OS X for any reason. The Windows API might
be feasable for apps in the server market where virtualization is more important, but not in the consumer market.
Yeh, if they’re going to license os x, it’d be a modified version of Tiger….
basically, sony and asus need a new OS
There is as much chance of Apple licensing OS X as there is for the release of the new Apple gadget, the “iShit”, a turd that actually plays music, video, audiobooks but stinks to high heaven.
Oh, wait – Microsoft already beat Apple to the punch on that one.
he he he
fm
So much nonsense, in so few words. Do people really get paid for such “wisdom”?
Ballmer remains one of Microsoft’s largest stockholders – number two, if I’m not mistaken. He’ll leave when he’s good and ready, about the time he realizes his presence hurts his stock’s value.
The bifurcation of OS X is already a reality. The notion that Apple will license even the stripped OS X to its competitors is fantasy.
Daniel Eran has already discredited the notion of Windows API support within OS X. Time to move along.
He’s probably right about XP support. Vista has not been well received. Our agency’s plans to migrate to Vista have been put on indefinite hold.
Hate to say it but the only way Ballmer is out, is if he decides he wants to leave. Fact is, while Vista might be crap, MS sales are at an all time high and they have sold 100 million plus copies of Vista. What that tells shareholders is that Steve is doing ok and that there is a huge potential for increased sales of Vista once SP2 comes out. I’m not a fan at all but to say Ballmer is going to be bumped just sounds like it comes from people who don’t understand economics 101 or basic business principals.
Besides, we’d miss Steve and his comments!
Steve Jobs hit the nail on the head when he first saw Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer.
“These guys have no taste”
and again
“The only problem with Microsoft is they just have no taste..”
as I spent two hours cleaning the viril off this XP machine just to be able to get back online to update the virus definitions and repeat.
The did away with the mouse a long time ago. It’s called a touch pad and it could easily be incorporated into desk top computers. When you could scroll, click and double click with the touch pad the mouse was dead.
Darwin is open source.
License Mac OS X? Sure, if OEMs are willing to pay $400 per PC! That would make enough money to justify licensing, and keep clone makers from competing with Macs on price.
Nooooooooo.
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />
Just keep Ballmer on board.
Who’s going to run MSFT (into the ground), if not him?
He’s got the drive, he’s got the knowledge (errr, lack of), he’s got the vision and he’s got the sense of mission to succeed in this (and only this) effort
The longer he stay’s the better it is for Apple.
Why does MDN feel the need to post comments under the Zune Tang pen name?
MS needs to keep Ballmer. It’s too much fun. They’re wasting money as carelessly as they make it. Who else will say such dumb things like SB. Just google the guy along with monkey dance.
BOOM.
If M$ doesn’t fire Ballmer, he’ll quit where there are no more conference chairs left in tact. :-p
He nailed the Windows API integration into OS X.
This was the big “Top Secret” stuff Steve was going to show us at a later date – but never did. It is massively complex to do this, and Avie wanted no part of it and split.
Once Avie T. left, the delays started (in trying to wedge these API’s into OS X – and make them work), and it still is in the works…
The only thing wrong with Robert’s prediction is the API’s into Leopard are not coming this year, but likely in OS 10.6…
I never knew that Balmer had so much stock!
MS *is* doomed then if it has to wait for Stevie B. to fire himself.
On the other hand, if anyone is a poster boy for “dying young” it’s Balmer and he is already 50 or so isn’t he? That’s when the effects of all your bad habits start to show up (or kill you outright).
It’s pretty safe to say from looking at him that even if he has the highest paid doctor on the planet, he sure doesn’t listen to them. that guy is a heart attack or stroke just waiting to happen.
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />
I’m surprised by how many people here spout out without even reading the article, maybe even MDN.
Cringely clearly states that Apple will license OSX, NOT Mac OSX.
Why people are so up in arms about this is beyond me. Would it not be nice to have a simple elegant software solution for devises other than Apple? I’m constantly frustrated by how difficult and clumsy the software installed on many devises are, from set top boxes to automotive features. If Apple can bring better solutions to things we use everyday, I say bring it on.
On a side note, please replace your mouse Apple. I just got back from an Apple store and that mighty mouse is truly an embarrassment.
I’d like to see produce a ‘keyboard’ that’s the same size as the current Bluetooth one, but it’s one big touch screen, and the display on it changes depending on what App you are using.
I really can’t see producing a ‘touch screen’ Mac, imagine the pain in your arms and wrists if you are permanently holding them out touching a monitor.
Cringely predicts that Mac OS X will NOT be licensed, but the mini-OS X that runs iPhone and iTouch will be licensed to companies like Sony. I can think of a few benefits for doing so and, taken together, they might make it worthwhile:
– If something like the Playstation ran on OS X, it might increase the level of game development on the Mac.
– The iPhone is locked into ATT, but other phones running the licensed software in foreign markets could, with favorable terms, make boatloads of money for Apple with little or no extra effort.
– The availability AppleTV from other vendors or built into TVs would give Apple more leverage in Hollywood via better iTunes sales.
– All of the software for these products would have to be done on a Mac using Cocoa, right? Anything to pry developers out of the MS box is a good thing.
To stir the pot. Agitation leads to more hits.
MDN word “boy”
Apple will not license OS X….
Apple will not release a Windoze API for native running of windoze applications because that will say hello to all the billions of viruses and spyware. That would kill Apple.
I’m still waiting for NERDS 3.0 – The Second Apple Empire
OK. I thought so.
Knowing Apple’s history, I can see Apple licensing their OS to other companies. They’ve done this with MacOS 7, tried with Rhapsody, and also tried with Pippin.
Get me a bumper sticker:
“Ballmer MUST stay!”
He’s the best friend Apple has. Keep doing a great job Monkey Boy. May your reign as CEO of Micro$oft last to the bitter end.
Apple’s BIG advantage over other consumer electronic companies is Mac OS X! Why would Apple license OS X to Sony?
This tired rumor comes out every year, and every year it’s put back into the drawer, only to be recycled for some columnist who needs more controversial material and a few column inches.
They wouldn’t want to come up with something truly predictive, after all.
C2,
Please stop… you’re ruining good comedy here.
NO! Ballmer must stay.
Otherwise, MS might find someone competent to run that train wreck.
“He nailed the Windows API integration into OS X.”
Nope. If that kind of thing was going on, I’d have heard about it. Apple would be losing engineers in droves.
-jcr
Most of you are missing the idea of licensing completely!!!
Allow me to explain:
OS X and Mac OS X are two different things. Apple does not call Mac OS X just “OS X”. That is all of you and your shorthand, ill-informed writing speaking, not Apple. I will put this another way for those of you who still do not understand: Steve Jobs has never said “The iPhone runs Mac OS X”. That is because it does not run Mac OS X! The iPhone runs “OS X”. Note how there is no “Mac” prefix there. Starting to understand yet?
“OS X” is a foundation. Mach, BSD, Darwin, Quicktime components, etc.
“Mac OS X” puts the Mac GUI (Window Server, Finder, Dock, etc.) on top of that foundation.
“iPhone OS X” puts the iPhone GUI and touch interface on top of that foundation.
Apple could stand to gain tremendously from licensing “OS X” to consumer electronics companies like Sony who will then build, not computers, but consumer devices like cell phones on the same foundation. However, the difference will be that the interface and GUI on top will be different. Thus, Apple maintains its differential position from the rest of the devices, and also grows its installed base of OS X and, especially, the Quicktime components. Critically, this grows the installed base of devices that are compatible with iTunes content, that otherwise would not have been.
I have not previously been in the “License the Mac OS!!!” crowd. However, Apple’s recent implementations of “OS X” in the iPhone and iPod touch change things dramatically, I believe. Again, I am not saying that Apple will license “Mac OS X” to PC manufacturers so that the Mac OS X desktop could appear on Sony PCs. No, but I could see 3rd party “OS X” licensing happening, to a pre-determined number of companies, and devices. I don’t see a downside for Apple. Do you?
–mAc
PS: Oh yeah… I hope Steve Ballmer stays with Microsoft until he expires. It’s the only way to ensure Microsoft’s complete implosion.
@nobodi
I think you are right on the money there buddy!
And, I couldn’t have said it better myself.
Wait one minute. Ha ha, didn’t I… ahhhhhhh shoot.
Anyways, matters not. I am anxious to see what Apple brings.
Apple has not changed that sad single buttoned oval mouse in years. Why? You may have asked? Because, R&D;has gone into detailing a replacement. Apples’ team sees the ‘mouse’ as simply a dead device. When “iJesture” or Apple Touch or whatever they call it… it will be in the form of a keyboard device. Made for positional input, data input, gesture input. One device – wireless wifi enabled. With the worlds eyes on Multi-Touch for the rest of us. Yeah yah, call it a small ass table. But this is one smart ass keyboard that has a multi-personality too. Built-in memory, built-in processor, built-in osx because it’s also our new idevice or sub-notebook.
You know you want it.
License Apple TV software to run on the PS3!!!
@Jeremy
I almost died laughing like the mouse when I re-read your comment.
“that guy is a heart attack or stroke just waiting to happen”,
thx for the laugh.
Sadly, though, it could be true – you know,
Bummer having a Big Mac Attack.
Oh my gosh… there’s a new Mac Commercial in there somewhere.
@chuck U farley
I agree. Microsoft is doing nothing but elevate Apple, albeit unintentionally.
Well, in the Embedded field, Linux is just too commonly used.
It would be a tough fight to compete there. Is the core Darwin bit of MacOS still Open Source? That’s what we are talking about, I think.
A “touch” keyboard would be a bad idea. Serious typists need a good quality keyboard with curved keys and tactile feedback.
I wish Apple would aim at supplying most ergonomic, rather than one that looks pretty.
A Mac is NOT a Windows box. If you want windows, buy windows. Making it Windows compatible would just kill off native Mac software.
Ballmer? Don’t know, don’t care, doesn’t matter.
Vista? Slow start, but it’ll get there. Suffers from the feeling that XP is “good enough” for most people. No need to upgrade.
Tablet/Newton/Super iPhone? Well of course it’s coming. The MacOS Touch operating system is obviously still in it’s infancy. I can’t imagine it being left to do the limited roles it’s currently used in.
Microsoft will have no choice but to “indefinitely” support Windows XP. That’s not a prediction, but an “assumed” fact.
The Balmer prediction makes sense. If Gates is not there as Chairman, the Microsoft Board will get rid of him at an early opportunity.
I agree with most people here. Ballmer must stay with MS forever!!! He’s doing a bang up job there at MS. hehe
I still can’t picture in my head how I would use a program like Adobe Illustrator or Photoshop without the mouse (or a pen). All those presision detalis. Click drag, will drw a box on screen (if you’re drawing a box/square) rubbing out with the eraser tool etc…
can’t see myself doing that with my fingers.
AppleEasy.com….
Virus’s and such don’t come pre bundled with windows software (well ok very occasionally something will slip through… (Sony. But that wasn’t strictly a virus.)). Virus’s come from the web, email etc…
I’m sure it would be possible to run Windows guff purley on OSX and avoid virus;s getting in because the mac would be connected to the net the same as it is now, as a mac. Just use mac Safari not the windows one.
iPhone £249.00 (16GB) + Update + SDK + Movie Rentals + Sing Along
iPod Shuffle £45.00 (2GB) 4 Colours + RED
+30
iPod Card £75.00 (4GB) 4 Colours + RED
+24
iPod Nano £99.00 (8GB) 4 Colours + Movie Rentals + Sing Along
+30
iPod Nano £129.00 (16GB) 4 Colours + Movie Rentals + Sing Along
+60
iPod Touch £189.00 (16GB) + Update + SDK + Movie Rentals + Sing Along
+60
iPod Touch £249.00 (32GB) + Update + SDK + Movie Rentals + Sing Along
AppleTV £189.00 (80GB) + Movie Rentals + Sing Along
+60
AppleTV £249.00 (160GB) + Movie Rentals + Sing Along
iPod Classic £159.00 (80GB) 2 Colours
+60
iPod Classic £219.00 (160GB) 2 Colours
New Firewire 800 Docks for iPods and iPhones
iTunes with 24 Hour TV/Movie Rentals for iPhone, iPod Nano/Touch and Apple TV+ Enhanced Albums with High Quality Booklet, Lyrics, Videos, Pictures + High Quality DRM Free Music
New Slim but wider Mac mini 4 + Colours + Red
New Slim MacBook/MacBook Pro Range 4 Colours + Red
Enhanced iMac with iSight HD
New Apple Displays with iSight HD and New Apple Cinema Displays
New 2.1 and 5.1 Surround Sound Systems
One more thing…
New Multi-Touch Aluminium Mouse
My crazy ass prediction #1
Its not Microsoft looking to buy Logitech but Apple.
MultiTouch for the masses
1) In first place: M$ MUST keep Balmer! It’s the best way to insure the end of the plague that M$ represent for our evolution!
2) Secondly, Apple MUST have a new and worthy MOUSE to come out (like a Logitec’s Revolution, for instance) as M$ menaces to buy up Logitec! Apple must have a valuable and professionnal alternative to offer to M$’s b…t!
For the mouse replacement, you should look here
http://www.fingerworks.com/userguides.html
This is the company Apple bought several years ago…most all of their multitouch capabilities will come from its acquired technology.
FYI, I have 6 of various FingerWorks products and am typing/gesturing this on a MacinTouch keyboard replacement for the PBG4! Good Stuff, But it will be interesting to see how it will be Apple-ized.
Hi,
there’s another cool article about in which way Apple will develop in 2008, you might want to check it out:
http://macgazette.de/en/2008/01/16/apple-in-2008/
Cheers,
g