• Microsoft will indefinitely extend the life of Windows XP, acknowledging the failure of Windows Vista, which will require another generation of hardware (and another $5 billion in R&D) to finally look good three years from now.
• Not only will Bill Gates be retiring from Microsoft in 2008, CEO Steve Ballmer will, too. No word yet on his successor.
• As part of its transition from a PC company to a consumer electronics and content company, Apple will introduce — and trumpet in a huge media show — its replacement for the mouse. Really.
• Apple will introduce a subnotebook/tablet computer/media player.
• Along the same lines look for OS X to bifurcate clearly into two lines — Mac OS X and plain OS X (for devices like the iPhone) with Apple licensing (non-Mac) OS X to a few companies, including Sony.
• Here’s one that will totally blow your mind: Apple will build into some Macs support for the Windows API, allowing Mac and Windows apps to run side by side with no need for virtualization software except to run Linux.
Cringely looks at his 2007 predictions’ successes and failures and gives many more 2008 predictions, including one that may be the source of the recent “Apple will drop Akamai for Google” rumor, here.
Steve Jobs hit the nail on the head when he first saw Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer.
“These guys have no taste”
and again
“The only problem with Microsoft is they just have no taste..”
as I spent two hours cleaning the viril off this XP machine just to be able to get back online to update the virus definitions and repeat.
The did away with the mouse a long time ago. It’s called a touch pad and it could easily be incorporated into desk top computers. When you could scroll, click and double click with the touch pad the mouse was dead.
Darwin is open source.
License Mac OS X? Sure, if OEMs are willing to pay $400 per PC! That would make enough money to justify licensing, and keep clone makers from competing with Macs on price.
Nooooooooo.
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Just keep Ballmer on board.
Who’s going to run MSFT (into the ground), if not him?
He’s got the drive, he’s got the knowledge (errr, lack of), he’s got the vision and he’s got the sense of mission to succeed in this (and only this) effort
The longer he stay’s the better it is for Apple.
Why does MDN feel the need to post comments under the Zune Tang pen name?
MS needs to keep Ballmer. It’s too much fun. They’re wasting money as carelessly as they make it. Who else will say such dumb things like SB. Just google the guy along with monkey dance.
BOOM.
If M$ doesn’t fire Ballmer, he’ll quit where there are no more conference chairs left in tact. :-p
He nailed the Windows API integration into OS X.
This was the big “Top Secret” stuff Steve was going to show us at a later date – but never did. It is massively complex to do this, and Avie wanted no part of it and split.
Once Avie T. left, the delays started (in trying to wedge these API’s into OS X – and make them work), and it still is in the works…
The only thing wrong with Robert’s prediction is the API’s into Leopard are not coming this year, but likely in OS 10.6…
I never knew that Balmer had so much stock!
MS *is* doomed then if it has to wait for Stevie B. to fire himself.
On the other hand, if anyone is a poster boy for “dying young” it’s Balmer and he is already 50 or so isn’t he? That’s when the effects of all your bad habits start to show up (or kill you outright).
It’s pretty safe to say from looking at him that even if he has the highest paid doctor on the planet, he sure doesn’t listen to them. that guy is a heart attack or stroke just waiting to happen.
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I’m surprised by how many people here spout out without even reading the article, maybe even MDN.
Cringely clearly states that Apple will license OSX, NOT Mac OSX.
Why people are so up in arms about this is beyond me. Would it not be nice to have a simple elegant software solution for devises other than Apple? I’m constantly frustrated by how difficult and clumsy the software installed on many devises are, from set top boxes to automotive features. If Apple can bring better solutions to things we use everyday, I say bring it on.
On a side note, please replace your mouse Apple. I just got back from an Apple store and that mighty mouse is truly an embarrassment.
I’d like to see produce a ‘keyboard’ that’s the same size as the current Bluetooth one, but it’s one big touch screen, and the display on it changes depending on what App you are using.
I really can’t see producing a ‘touch screen’ Mac, imagine the pain in your arms and wrists if you are permanently holding them out touching a monitor.
Cringely predicts that Mac OS X will NOT be licensed, but the mini-OS X that runs iPhone and iTouch will be licensed to companies like Sony. I can think of a few benefits for doing so and, taken together, they might make it worthwhile:
– If something like the Playstation ran on OS X, it might increase the level of game development on the Mac.
– The iPhone is locked into ATT, but other phones running the licensed software in foreign markets could, with favorable terms, make boatloads of money for Apple with little or no extra effort.
– The availability AppleTV from other vendors or built into TVs would give Apple more leverage in Hollywood via better iTunes sales.
– All of the software for these products would have to be done on a Mac using Cocoa, right? Anything to pry developers out of the MS box is a good thing.
To stir the pot. Agitation leads to more hits.
MDN word “boy”
Apple will not license OS X….
Apple will not release a Windoze API for native running of windoze applications because that will say hello to all the billions of viruses and spyware. That would kill Apple.
I’m still waiting for NERDS 3.0 – The Second Apple Empire
OK. I thought so.
Knowing Apple’s history, I can see Apple licensing their OS to other companies. They’ve done this with MacOS 7, tried with Rhapsody, and also tried with Pippin.
Get me a bumper sticker:
“Ballmer MUST stay!”
He’s the best friend Apple has. Keep doing a great job Monkey Boy. May your reign as CEO of Micro$oft last to the bitter end.
Apple’s BIG advantage over other consumer electronic companies is Mac OS X! Why would Apple license OS X to Sony?
This tired rumor comes out every year, and every year it’s put back into the drawer, only to be recycled for some columnist who needs more controversial material and a few column inches.
They wouldn’t want to come up with something truly predictive, after all.
C2,
Please stop… you’re ruining good comedy here.
NO! Ballmer must stay.
Otherwise, MS might find someone competent to run that train wreck.
“He nailed the Windows API integration into OS X.”
Nope. If that kind of thing was going on, I’d have heard about it. Apple would be losing engineers in droves.
-jcr
Most of you are missing the idea of licensing completely!!!
Allow me to explain:
OS X and Mac OS X are two different things. Apple does not call Mac OS X just “OS X”. That is all of you and your shorthand, ill-informed writing speaking, not Apple. I will put this another way for those of you who still do not understand: Steve Jobs has never said “The iPhone runs Mac OS X”. That is because it does not run Mac OS X! The iPhone runs “OS X”. Note how there is no “Mac” prefix there. Starting to understand yet?
“OS X” is a foundation. Mach, BSD, Darwin, Quicktime components, etc.
“Mac OS X” puts the Mac GUI (Window Server, Finder, Dock, etc.) on top of that foundation.
“iPhone OS X” puts the iPhone GUI and touch interface on top of that foundation.
Apple could stand to gain tremendously from licensing “OS X” to consumer electronics companies like Sony who will then build, not computers, but consumer devices like cell phones on the same foundation. However, the difference will be that the interface and GUI on top will be different. Thus, Apple maintains its differential position from the rest of the devices, and also grows its installed base of OS X and, especially, the Quicktime components. Critically, this grows the installed base of devices that are compatible with iTunes content, that otherwise would not have been.
I have not previously been in the “License the Mac OS!!!” crowd. However, Apple’s recent implementations of “OS X” in the iPhone and iPod touch change things dramatically, I believe. Again, I am not saying that Apple will license “Mac OS X” to PC manufacturers so that the Mac OS X desktop could appear on Sony PCs. No, but I could see 3rd party “OS X” licensing happening, to a pre-determined number of companies, and devices. I don’t see a downside for Apple. Do you?
–mAc
PS: Oh yeah… I hope Steve Ballmer stays with Microsoft until he expires. It’s the only way to ensure Microsoft’s complete implosion.