Apple has made a habit of defying conventional wisdom in a way that’s made a lot of people rich

“I’ve been wrong about the Mac maker just as much as I’ve been right. In October, for example, I sold my long-term options position because a backdating scandal added an unacceptable amount of risk,” Tim Beyers writes for The Motley Fool. “I was sitting on a 150% gain at the time. Had I held till today, I’d be sitting on a four-bagger. Nice work, Tim.”

“But enough with the sob stories. My point here is that Apple has made a habit of defying conventional wisdom in a way that’s made a lot of people rich,” Beyers writes.

Beyers writes, “[However,] History [also] shows us that no one has ever successfully sold a $600 phone… Trouble is, history isn’t perfectly informative here. Nokia, Motorola, and Palm have never had the benefit of retailers that catered to their products in the way that Apple’s retail stores will show off the iPhone.”

“We know the effect that can have. Macs are fun to play with. So are iPods. Apple’s retail stores — which account for roughly 18% of annual revenue — make playing with these gadgets really, really easy. They’ll do the same for the iPhone,” Beyers writes.

Beyers writes, “I’m not going to play the predictions game this time. I’ve been burned too many times. Better it is, I think, to leave the crow for someone else. Like, you know, the soothsayers who are now predicting that Apple can’t sell a $600 phone. Good luck with that.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Not-So-Minor-Note: Apple’s iPhone starts at US$499, not “$600,” which ought to further drive home Beyer’s point. Apple will sell boatloads of $499 — and, yes, even $599 — iPhone models.

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Is Apple iPhone’s price too low? – May 02, 2007
Microsoft’s Ballmer: ‘No chance Apple iPhone is going to get any significant market share’ – April 30, 2007
Survey says: Apple iPhone ‘is going to be a monster’ – April 24, 2007
AT&T COO: Apple iPhone on target for June launch; over 1 million customers ready and waiting – April 19, 2007