Microsoft’s Ballmer warns on Vista, says revenue forecasts too aggressive; shares drop

“Microsoft Corp. Chief Executive Steve Ballmer said on Thursday analysts’ forecasts for revenue from Windows Vista in fiscal 2008 were ‘overly aggressive,’ sending shares down 1 percent,” Reuters reports.

Reuters reports, “The world’s biggest software maker cautioned analysts that Vista sales will remain closely aligned to new computer sales. Ballmer said Vista would create a ‘small surge’ in PC sales in fiscal 2008, but would not spur a big increase over normal growth rates. ‘It looks like people are a little bit over optimistic, at least more optimistic than we are,’ Ballmer said in a presentation to analysts.”

“Microsoft shares fell 1.1 percent in extended trading to $29.14 from a Nasdaq close of $29.46,” Reuters reports.

Full article here.

“‘I’m really excited about how enthusiastic people are about Vista, but I think some of the revenue forecasts for Vista in 2008 are overly aggressive,’ Ballmer said in a meeting for financial analysts. ‘(Vista) is primarily a chance to sustain what (Windows) revenue we have — not every release is a revenue growing opportunity,'” The Associated Press reports.

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Here’s just a small sample of how “enthusiastic” people are about Vista:
Windows Vista’s DRM is bad news – February 14, 2007
Mac OS X Tiger vs. Windows Vista: Mac’s migration a breeze, Vista’s migration a headache – February 12, 2007
Forbes: ‘Windows Vista utterly unimaginative, internally discordant and woefully out of tune’ – February 09, 2007
Computerworld: Windows expert dumps Windows, switches to Apple’s Mac OS X – February 08, 2007
Windows sufferer spends six hours trying to ‘upgrade’ to Vista, says: ‘I should’ve bought a Mac’ – February 07, 2007
Windows Vista woes push BBC News editor to regret never having ‘defected’ to Apple Mac – February 06, 2007
Digit: Don’t buy Vista; Microsoft may be driving millions to stick with XP or move to Apple Mac – February 05, 2007
TIME Magazine: Microsoft’s Windows Vista ‘an embarassment to the good name of American innovation’ – February 02, 2007
Microsoft’s Windows Vista: Five years for a chrome-plated turd – January 30, 2007
Digit: ‘Microsoft’s Windows Vista may be the best reason yet to buy an Apple Mac’ – January 29, 2007
Pioneer Press: Windows Vista shows ‘Apple is an innovation engine; Microsoft, not so much’ – January 29, 2007
Windows Vista disappoints, so get a Mac – January 29, 2007
Analyst: Microsoft’s Windows Vista could be an opportunity for Apple – January 26, 2007
CNET Reviews Windows Vista: Is that all? Clunky and not very intuitive vs. Mac OS X; warmed-over XP – January 24, 2007
Mossberg: Microsoft’s Windows Vista offers lesser imitations of Apple’s Mac OS X features – January 18, 2007
Windows Vista disappointment drives longtime ‘Microsoft apologist’ to Apple’s Mac OS X – January 17, 2007
InformationWeek Review: Apple’s Mac OS X shines in comparison with Microsoft’s Windows Vista – January 06, 2007
NY Times’ Pogue reviews Microsoft’s Windows Vista: ‘Looks, Locks, Lacks’ – December 14, 2006
15-year Windows vet tries Apple Mac: ‘My God! This is amazing!’ – December 04, 2006
Dave Winer: ‘Microsoft isn’t an innovator, and never was – they are always playing catch-up’ – December 01, 2006
Harvard Medical School CIO picks Mac OS X over Linux and Windows – November 30, 2006
Top Windows developer dumps Microsoft’s ‘pile of crap’ for Apple’s Mac OS X – September 12, 2006
$399 for Windows Vista Ultimate?! (Hint: Get a Mac) – August 29, 2006
Apple’s Mac OS X Leopard is 64-bit done right, unlike Microsoft’s Windows Vista kludge – August 14, 2006
Microsoft Windows Vista: If you can’t innovate… try to impersonate Apple’s Mac OS X – August 10, 2006
Analyst: Apple’s new Mac OS X Leopard sets new bar, leaves Microsoft’s Vista in the dust – August 08, 2006
Microsoft botches another copy job: Windows Vista Flip3D vs. Apple Mac OS X Exposé – June 26, 2006
Windows Vista rips-off Mac OS X at great hardware cost (and Apple gains in the end) – June 13, 2006
Computerworld: Microsoft Windows Vista a distant second-best to Apple Mac OS X – June 02, 2006

Ballmer calls Apple ‘cute, little tiny niche guy’ – February 15, 2007


  1. brilliant.. the ‘people’ who are optimistic are called ‘investors’… the ‘people’ who aren’t are called ‘customers’

    A friend of mine just got a new Dell today with Vista on it. Unfortunately, Dell still gets kickbacks for loading it up with Google software, so all that stuff has to but uninstalled before you can see the Windows Sidebar and stuff..

    I CANNOT believe it doesn’t even have a tutorial,etc still thing.. What a wasted opportunity.

    And Vista tries to put Widgets,etc in the Media Player (check scores etc).. which is.. clunky.. *sigh

  2. WOW! just WOW!

    This whole VISTA thing os totally underwhelming. So underwhelming that I’m totally blown away. WOW!

    How much closer to “Closed Until Business Picks Up” than this admission.

    I wouldn’t want to face the shareholders in his shoes.

  3. not every release is a revenue growing opportunity

    W T F ?!?!

    Ballmer, your company worked on this thing for five years.

    It was supposed to be a crucial landmark upgrade of one of your key products.

    And now that it’s becoming clear MS has utterly blew it, the best you can do is admit failure with “not every release is a revenue growing opportunity”?!?

    Anywhere else it’d be called a DUD.

    Use your own terms, Ballmy. We’ll use ours.

  4. “Vista sales will remain closely aligned to new computer sales”

    Apparently MS recognizes that few are buying it as an “upgrade,” just the PC mfrs who *have to* install it on new systems (MS’s captive market that accounts for, what, 80% of their OS revenue?). I wonder if in a few months, as PC sales stagnate, that Dell & HP and the others will convince MS to let them offer XP as an option? In the enterprise we’ve the option of Ghosting or ZENing our new machines with XP, but the poor users paying with personal money for a new system get to play guinea pig and fight the lack of drivers, updated software, bizarre UI changes, draconian DRM, etc., etc., etc.

    How many days ’til Leopard?

  5. MS is so ingrained in people’s computer lives that it will always play a significant part in computing.

    Ford and GM were once deeply ingrained in people’s transportation choices too.

    Vista certainly won’t kill MS. But it’s a big dud when MS really needed a big hit, and it’s going to weigh on MS until they address it.

  6. This is an incredible statement. It won’t go unnoticed… The board of directors should and will fire this dumb bastard.

    How on earth could a CEO make such a statement about a core product five years in development? He is declaring that Vista is so uncompelling that no one will upgrade. The only sales will be to those who must to purchase new hardware. Absolutely incredible!

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