Apple larger than Microsoft by 2010?

10layers.com asks, “We are not talking about an Arthur C. Clark space odyssey, but could it be that Apple has a shot at outgrowing Microsoft within the next 5 years?”

“Both Microsoft and Apple have seen healthy revenue growth in the last 5 years. Microsoft’s revenues have grown approximately 60% from just under $30B in 2002 to over $44B in 2006. However, while Microsoft has grown linearly for this period, Apple has accelerated with revenues of just under $6B in 2002 growing to just under $21B in 2006. An impressive 250% revenue growth! In other words, Apple has been growing much faster than Microsoft,” 10layers writes.

10layers displays an extrapolation graph that shows “Apple could catch up with Microsoft as early as 2010 or 2011, given the current growth rates,” 10layers writes. “Of course, an extrapolation is just an attempt at predicting the future based on the past. Caveat emptor etc. It is clear however, that it is likely that Apple will give Microsoft a run for their money.”

Full article with graphs here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “LinuxGuy and Mac Prodigal Son” for the heads up.]

Related article:
Apple CEO Steve Jobs’ ultimate goal: ‘to take back the computer business from Microsoft’ – June 16, 2005

66 Comments

  1. Poppy,

    While I agree that Microsoft’s decline has begun, it’s going to take far more than a year. My prediction is MS losing about 30% of their market share over the next five years. The Mac will pick up most of the desktop/laptop business, and the server business will go to Linux and Solaris.

    -jcr

  2. This comparison is stupid. Microsoft is primarily a software company, whereas Apple derives the vast majority of its revenue from hardware (computers + consumer electronics).

    If and when the product mixes and revenue sources of the two companies start becoming comparable, then (and only then) would such comparisons be meaningful.

  3. Let’s not get carried away folks. For this dream to come true 3 things need to happen:
    1. Apple has to stay at the top of its game for the next 10yrs. Possible but there is a limit to how many rabbits Steve & Co can pull out of their hat. 2. M$ has to totally blow the battle for the digital living room. Yeah Ballmer is the Coyote to Apple’s Roadrunner but they won’t keep screwing up this badly and consistantly. And there is a chance their successor to Vista might actually be a 21st century OS. 3. Apple has to make some inroads into the business market.

  4. Microsoft sold more X-Boxes last year than Apple sold Macintosh computers, domestic & global

    Perspective

    Yes, if only sales of money-losing Xboxs would spike, Apple might be able to catch them by 2009!

  5. Let’s see. Last quarter our profit was $1 billion. Microsoft’s was $2 billion.

    I don’t see a problem with matching them for profitability, without having to increase gross revenues to match.

    Ballmer is a bozo.

    S.

  6. Even though I’m an Apple fan, this straight-line projection is dumb and the author doesn’t even do a superficial analysis. If we went back to the mid-90s, a straight-line projection would’ve put the then beleaguered Apple in bankruptcy.

    Both companies face threats to their core businesses. The question is how well will each execute to triumph over these threats, and/or create businesses in new market space.

    Windows, Office, and Mac OS face threats from the Web, with Windows more so because it has greater market share. Vista, Live, and MSN don’t look like good answers yet, altho MS business products seem to be evolving faster enough to fend off the threat on the business side. .Mac has so far been poor, though iTunes has been dominant and expanding. We’ll know soon what’s coming in Leopard.

    Windows faces a serious threat from malware (from which the Mac OS is currently benefiting). Again, Vista doesn’t seem to be the answer.

    The iPod faces growth barriers from cheap (subsidized) music phones in other parts of the world. The iPhone is the beginning of an answer but it has yet to ship.

    So yes, Apple may earn more by 2010 but the odds of the revenue chart looking like his is just about nil.

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