Analyst: Apple could sell 12 million ‘iPhones’ next year

“Apple Computer could sell as many as 12 million iPod-enabled cell phones next year, potentially boosting earnings by as much as 10 percent above current Wall Street estimates, one analyst says,” AppleInsider reports.

AppleInsider reports, “While he does not expect Apple to announce a cell phone at its Showtime event this week, PiperJaffray analyst Gene Munster told clients on Monday that he continues to expect the company will ship an ‘iPhone’ within the next 4 to 6 months. ‘That said, we have not seen any concrete evidence that the product is near completion or launch,’ Munster wrote in a research note.”

AppleInsider reports, “Assuming Apple ships an iPhone early next year, at the Macworld 2007 trade show or a special event shortly thereafter, Munster expect the company will sell between 8 million 12 million units in the full calendar year… ‘Assuming 1.2 iPods per owner and assuming 33 percent of these higher average selling price iPod buyers buy an iPhone in 2007, we estimate approximately 10 million iPhones could be sold.’ The analyst maintains an “Outperform” rating on shares of Apple with a price target of $99.”

More details in the full article here.

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  1. 12 million phones is awfully conservative. The annual market for new phones exceeds 1 Billion. IDC’s market share chart shows 6 manufacturers, then a category called ‘Others’. ‘Others’ holds 17% of the total market. Apple would certainly be included in that category, at least until its share surpassed BenQ/Siemen’s (the #6 firm) share of 3.2%.

    If Apple garnered 10% of the ‘Other’ category (something I think Apple could do if for no other reason than the popularity of the iPod), it would have sold 17,000,000 hand sets. That’s 5 million more than Munster estimates.

    But looking at Apple’s recent hand held device patent filing, the implications there strongly suggest a handset that is controlled by a touch sensitive screen with a limited number of fixed buttons. I think this would have significant appeal to a cell phone user. Add to that, the fact that the patent covers multi-functionality. So an Apple device could include a music player, a video player, a cell phone, a PDA, a GPS system, a camera and several other functions, each operated by touch sensitive controls that appear only when you want them.

    Could Apple surpass BenQ’s 3.2% share in the first year? I think it is entirely possible. That would amount to about 35 million hand sets, well over Munster’s 12 million estimate.

  2. To Spark: About 800 million mobile phones sold 2005. Third of them by Nokia. Q2 2006 Nokia sold 78,4 million, of which 18,3 million smartphones or “converged devices”. 12 million iPhones will be quite good but not impossible.

  3. I would love an Apple smartphone. I have the Treo 600, Palm part is great, phone not so much. But I have a lot of software I’ve been using for years in Palm format, and I just bought a MacBook, so I can’t go Windows Mobile.

    What if Apple bought Palm? That would be excellent!

  4. If Apple is smart, they’ll either set up their own phone network (unlikely) OR they’ll simply sell unlocked phones. Let’s hope they’re quad-band.

    If any of the rumor sites are even partially correct, could this be the birth of Son of Newton and OS X?

    Phone, iPod and PDA all in one unit?
    Now THAT would make it very intriguing indeed.

    I just bought a new unlocked Sony Ericsson K510i phone, but if Apple offers something sufficiently compelling, I’ll eBay or craigslist the damn phone AND my Palm TX in a New York minute!

    Maybe not, but it sure is fun thinking about all the possibilities!
    But, of course BATTERY LIFE is key!

    MDN Magic Word: QUALITY… as in that’s the bottom line!

  5. I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for an Apple “iPhone.” There’s just too many variables outside of Apple’s control to make this really do-able for Apple. The phone companies all want you to buy “their” phones; buy more expensive music from their “their” music service; and/or they cripple/limit phone features.

    Would you deal with “business partners” like this?

  6. Wait a minute, why not just make the iPhone same size/volume as the PC-Card on side side of the PowerBook…?
    Slot it in, and it will work as whatever a PC-Card is for, and of course as a modem. Does anyone understand my idea…?

  7. It just illustrates how popular an iPhone would be if Apple ever released one. I love the idea of an iPhone and hope that it would be 100 percent compatible with a Macintosh computer. I also hope that Apple will take their sweet time developing and manufacturing a good product that will beat all of their competition.

    If you go by the earlier registered drawings, it looks like it will only be a candy bar device. Too bad. But, if Apple ever made it, you know it would be done with the easiest user interface of all devices.


  8. Rudge:

    I can talk to my computer without a phone. In fact, we can communicate telepathically. Unfortunately, we’re still learning each others language, so we sometimes make a few mistakes. Wait a minute. What’s that? Uh, huh. Uh, huh. OK, I get it. Hey, Rugde, my computer wants to know what your favorite band of all time is.

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