Analyst: Apple could sell 12 million ‘iPhones’ next year

“Apple Computer could sell as many as 12 million iPod-enabled cell phones next year, potentially boosting earnings by as much as 10 percent above current Wall Street estimates, one analyst says,” AppleInsider reports.

AppleInsider reports, “While he does not expect Apple to announce a cell phone at its Showtime event this week, PiperJaffray analyst Gene Munster told clients on Monday that he continues to expect the company will ship an ‘iPhone’ within the next 4 to 6 months. ‘That said, we have not seen any concrete evidence that the product is near completion or launch,’ Munster wrote in a research note.”

AppleInsider reports, “Assuming Apple ships an iPhone early next year, at the Macworld 2007 trade show or a special event shortly thereafter, Munster expect the company will sell between 8 million 12 million units in the full calendar year… ‘Assuming 1.2 iPods per owner and assuming 33 percent of these higher average selling price iPod buyers buy an iPhone in 2007, we estimate approximately 10 million iPhones could be sold.’ The analyst maintains an “Outperform” rating on shares of Apple with a price target of $99.”

More details in the full article here.

Related articles:
Analysts: Apple ‘iPhone’ design and business strategy more ambitious than expected – September 08, 2006
Analyst: Apple ‘iPhone’ finally ready for production – September 05, 2006
Apple CEO Steve Jobs talks up much-rumored ‘iPhone’ iPod mobile phone – August 11, 2006
Is this Apple’s iPhone? – August 03, 2006
BofA ups Apple Computer to ‘buy,’ expects ‘iPhone’ in 2007, shares rise in early trading – July 31, 2006
Not sitting around doing nothing: ‘iPhone’ could add billions to Apple’s revenue – July 21, 2006
Apple CFO on iPhone: ‘we’re not sitting around doing nothing’ – July 20, 2006
Merrill Lynch ups Apple rating to ‘buy’; UBS raises Apple target to $80 – July 20, 2006
Apple Q3 2006 Conference Call notes – July 19, 2006
iPhone, iPod messenger clues in latest iPod firmware update – July 17, 2006
Patent application shows iPod capable of live wireless video conferencing – June 13, 2006
Bear Stearns comments on Apple: ‘true’ video iPod, iPhone, multiple OS plans – May 17, 2006
Apple patent application filed for wireless iPod+iTunes distribution – May 04, 2006
Report: Apple Computer may soon launch its own music ‘iPhone’ – March 31, 2006
RUMOR: Apple ‘iPhone’ put on hold – March 30, 2006
Visiongain: Apple ‘iPhone’ launch imminent – March 29, 2006
BenQ exec: Apple’s iPhone ‘definitely coming’ – March 23, 2006
European patent application shows Apple ‘iPhone’ info? – March 21, 2006
Analyst: Apple ‘iPhone’ could put a dent in Motorola – March 20, 2006
Anayst: 75-percent chance of Apple ‘iPhone’ in next 12 months – March 16, 2006
Generator Research: Apple to Ship $4.2bn in Wireless iPods (WiPods) by 2010 – March 14, 2006
Citigroup tech analyst: Apple ‘iPhone’ is going to be a category killer – March 03, 2006
Motorola to make Windows Media phones, keep separate iTunes phone line – February 13, 2006
Review: Motorola SLVR Apple iTunes mobile phone ‘an incredibly slick gadget with some shortcomings’ – February 13, 2006
Ready for your wireless Apple iPod? – February 09, 2006
Wireless iPod? CSR and PortalPlayer to bring wireless connectivity to personal media players – February 08, 2006
Motorola and Cingular launch new SLVR L7 iTunes phone – January 31, 2006
Analyst sees new Apple iBooks by April, ‘media hub’ product, 1GB iPod nano, iPhone within a year – January 31, 2006
Analysts tackle Apple’s ‘Mobile Me’ patent, iPhone rumors, MVNO possibilities – January 19, 2006
The San Francisco Chronicle: Apple may link cell phone, iPod – January 17, 2006
Apple Computer getting into the mobile phone market? – January 12, 2006
Apple applies for ‘Mobile Me’ trademark – January 11, 2006
Morgan Stanley predicts Apple shares surge, Apple ‘iPhone’ in 2006 – December 16, 2005
Wireless Apple iPods coming in 2006? – December 09, 2005
Analyst predicts Apple-branded ‘iPhone’ with iTunes and terabyte iPod within five years – November 11, 2005
How Apple’s Steve Jobs snookered the entire cell phone industry – October 03, 2005
Motorola CEO Zander: Apple to build a smart phone, it’s only a matter of time – September 29, 2005
Apple may eventually introduce its own ‘iPhone’ cell phone-iPod combo and create Apple MVNO – September 12, 2005
If Apple isn’t working on their own iPhone, they’re making a stupid mistake – September 12, 2005
Does Apple need a mobile phone of its own design? – September 09, 2005
Piper Jaffray: Apple should develop ‘iPhone’ by themselves – September 06, 2005
Forbes: Apple Computer planning to become a phone company? – July 08, 2005
Wendland: Bill Gates is right, iPod will be replaced by smartphones – by Apple – May 13, 2005
Apple Registers iPhone Trademark in Australia – December 02, 2002

31 Comments

  1. 12 million phones is awfully conservative. The annual market for new phones exceeds 1 Billion. IDC’s market share chart shows 6 manufacturers, then a category called ‘Others’. ‘Others’ holds 17% of the total market. Apple would certainly be included in that category, at least until its share surpassed BenQ/Siemen’s (the #6 firm) share of 3.2%.

    If Apple garnered 10% of the ‘Other’ category (something I think Apple could do if for no other reason than the popularity of the iPod), it would have sold 17,000,000 hand sets. That’s 5 million more than Munster estimates.

    But looking at Apple’s recent hand held device patent filing, the implications there strongly suggest a handset that is controlled by a touch sensitive screen with a limited number of fixed buttons. I think this would have significant appeal to a cell phone user. Add to that, the fact that the patent covers multi-functionality. So an Apple device could include a music player, a video player, a cell phone, a PDA, a GPS system, a camera and several other functions, each operated by touch sensitive controls that appear only when you want them.

    Could Apple surpass BenQ’s 3.2% share in the first year? I think it is entirely possible. That would amount to about 35 million hand sets, well over Munster’s 12 million estimate.

  2. To Spark: About 800 million mobile phones sold 2005. Third of them by Nokia. Q2 2006 Nokia sold 78,4 million, of which 18,3 million smartphones or “converged devices”. 12 million iPhones will be quite good but not impossible.

  3. I would love an Apple smartphone. I have the Treo 600, Palm part is great, phone not so much. But I have a lot of software I’ve been using for years in Palm format, and I just bought a MacBook, so I can’t go Windows Mobile.

    What if Apple bought Palm? That would be excellent!

  4. If Apple is smart, they’ll either set up their own phone network (unlikely) OR they’ll simply sell unlocked phones. Let’s hope they’re quad-band.

    If any of the rumor sites are even partially correct, could this be the birth of Son of Newton and OS X?

    Phone, iPod and PDA all in one unit?
    Now THAT would make it very intriguing indeed.

    I just bought a new unlocked Sony Ericsson K510i phone, but if Apple offers something sufficiently compelling, I’ll eBay or craigslist the damn phone AND my Palm TX in a New York minute!

    Maybe not, but it sure is fun thinking about all the possibilities!
    But, of course BATTERY LIFE is key!

    MDN Magic Word: QUALITY… as in that’s the bottom line!

  5. I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for an Apple “iPhone.” There’s just too many variables outside of Apple’s control to make this really do-able for Apple. The phone companies all want you to buy “their” phones; buy more expensive music from their “their” music service; and/or they cripple/limit phone features.

    Would you deal with “business partners” like this?

  6. Wait a minute, why not just make the iPhone same size/volume as the PC-Card on side side of the PowerBook…?
    Slot it in, and it will work as whatever a PC-Card is for, and of course as a modem. Does anyone understand my idea…?

  7. It just illustrates how popular an iPhone would be if Apple ever released one. I love the idea of an iPhone and hope that it would be 100 percent compatible with a Macintosh computer. I also hope that Apple will take their sweet time developing and manufacturing a good product that will beat all of their competition.

    If you go by the earlier registered drawings, it looks like it will only be a candy bar device. Too bad. But, if Apple ever made it, you know it would be done with the easiest user interface of all devices.

    –Rudge

  8. Rudge:

    I can talk to my computer without a phone. In fact, we can communicate telepathically. Unfortunately, we’re still learning each others language, so we sometimes make a few mistakes. Wait a minute. What’s that? Uh, huh. Uh, huh. OK, I get it. Hey, Rugde, my computer wants to know what your favorite band of all time is.

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.