“According to proponents of this myth, Apple’s success with the iPod is about to be crushed by an onslaught of music playing cell phones, so Apple needs to desperately come up with an iPod + cell phone combination of their own to remain relevant. They’re wrong, here’s why,” Daniel Eran writes for RoughlyDrafted.
“This myth is based in part on ‘Microsoft is Invincible FUD,’ which carefully warns consumers that whatever strategy Microsoft choses will be both flawless and undeniable, and that rather than examine options, it’s best just to wait around and see what Microsoft eventually delivers, and then make the best of it,” Eran writes.
“However, Microsoft has repeatedly failed in their ongoing attempts to leverage their Windows monopoly to dominate the digital music and media market. Instead, consumers have chosen to buy iPods, leaving Microsoft’s WMA strategy soundly defeated by Apple’s device and the QuickTime technologies that power it,” Eran writes.
“Apple sold 35 million iPods in the last year. The entire cell phone market is estimated to have 850 million units ship in 2006. Of course, most of those phones can’t play music, but the numbers suggest a way to prove that Apple’s iPod product isn’t actually destroying the competition by competing fairly as a better product, but is rather just a strange niche product that represents a temporary statistical anomaly. As soon as consumers figure out that their cell phone is just as good at playing music, analysts hope to see Apple’s share of the market fall into the 5% or less range,” Eran writes.
“Once Apple goes back to being inconsequential, and Microsoft returns as the invincible decider of industry trends, lazy analysts can return to comfortably prattling off the same pro-Microsoft FUD that, in fulfilling its own prophesies, has served their own interests by making them look knowledgeable and smart over the last two decades. Of course, until that happens they continue look stupid, so they’re motivated to talk about iPod Killers. Mobile phones are just the last best hope for challenging Apple’s music player,” Eran writes.
Full article, highly recommended, here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Rainy Day” for the heads up.]
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