Why Apple’s new ‘Get a Mac’ campaign will fail

Apple’s “new ads are nothing short of fantastic. Unlike the ill-fated Postal Service ad, these spots are advertising the best thing that Apple has going for it, OS X. But the ads go farther than just telling the public how great OS X is, they also point out some of the shortcomings of Windows. The campaign comes at just the right time, Microsoft is getting a stomping of gangland proportions by the media and customer trust is hovering somewhere around the Presidents approval numbers. If there was ever a moment tailor made for a Mac onslaught, this is that moment in time,” Chris Seibold writes for Apple Matters.

“There are going to be complaints about the PC being overly stereotypical or the Mac guy being too odd for people to relate to. In reality, the choice of the actors is clever. For most products the target market is 18-34, and the commercials take dead aim at the target market. Certainly, there will be other criticisms, but they will be more nitpicking than substantive. Taken separately, and applying the wildly subjective Chris Seibold Marketing Achievement Scale all the spots rate at least an eight out of ten. If all the commercials are at least a ‘very good,’ how can you be sure the ads will be considered a failure? Because they won’t move the Mac’s market share enough,” Seibold writes. “In six months, after the campaign is over, some internet hack will say that the ads were really great but Apple is still stuck with 5% of the market and hence the ads were, for all their niftiness, a failure. The person who says this will be an idiot.”

Siebold breaks down each of the ads in his full article here.

[UPDATE: 4:58pm EDT: Fixed “18-341” to “18-34.” The “1” is a superscript for a corresponding footnote. Please read full article.]

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Related articles:
Why Apple has not advertised Mac OS X – March 15, 2006
Apple in secret deal with Microsoft to hide Macintosh from world? – January 19, 2006
Why in Jobs’ name doesn’t Apple advertise the Macintosh? – October 27, 2005
More would switch from Windows to Mac if Apple advertised more effectively – September 04, 2005
Forrester analysts: Apple should advertise Mac OS X Tiger on television and in movie theaters – April 29, 2005
Mac fans line up for new operating system as passberby asks ‘what is a tiger?’ – April 29, 2005
Apple posts QuickTime movies of Mac OS X Tiger features in action – April 13, 2005
Why doesn’t Apple advertise Mac OS X on TV? – April 12, 2005
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50 Comments

  1. I’m sorrry, I love the ads but NOTHING is going to improve market share, at least not from Apple. All Apple can do is keep making superior computers and superior software, and hope people catch on.

    Really, Windows is so deeply entrenched in the consumer market there’s just no way 5 years of the best ads created by the best agencies on the planet will have a substantial effect on share.

    Remember, most users—and by that I mean people NOT like us, people that don’t even know how to keep the freaking vcr clock from flashing 12:00 forever—don’t even know what Windows is, what an OS is, or that there is any alternative at all. They think the computer IS the OS. (Just like my aging mother thinks the MONITOR is the computer and has no idea what that silly box under my desk is.)

    You can run commercials trying to tell people that there is better music out there than whatever radio station they’re listening to, but that doesn’t mean they’ll listen to it. Dumb people need to feel like they belong, and if those dumb people feel like they belong with Windows, they’re not gonna switch to the Mac. They don’t WANT to be different. They WANT to be sheep.

    I say Apple should be glad they have as big a market share as they do and just work not to lose any of it. If they gain some, fantastic. But, realistically, I don’t see that happening in the near future. I’m hopeful tho.

  2. Joop, this baby boomer sees nothing scary about you youngin’s. We did jeans & beards too, with the same effect on our elders. Nose rings, now that I draw the line at.

    This is a good campaign for a juicy slice of the market. I’m hoping that Apple gets serious about the enterprise market sometime soon, which would have a completely different approach. But with all that good stuff in the pipeline Steve alluded to, maybe that will be addressed once the MacPros go Intel.

    And iPhones, that would make my decade.

  3. Nothing will change Apple market share except some external 3rd party force. The computer market is mature and established. Nothing any of the players do will matter much.

    The only thing that will change market share is one or more of these:
    a) Dell to go out of business.
    b) Microsoft start on the road to bankruptcy.
    c) Govt. puts restrictions on Microsoft.
    d) Apple gets a totally new processor that is 5-10 times faster than Intel is offering, generates a fraction of the heat and is cheaper.

    None of these things will happen in the next 5 -10 years. Apple will bump along at 3-5% market share. Then the rumors will start about Steve getting too old and thinking of retiring….

  4. If Apple actually targets the corporate market, every percentage point they make in that sub-market is equivalent to 1.4 points in the entire market…

    I think having just gone through tax season, my brain is still spewing out numbers. “Honey… Did I forget to take my Ritalin this morning?”

  5. Hey, I bought a Mac. I’m set for the next 4 years. Unless I dedice to get a new tower Mac/intel after they come out (which I’m sure I will). Then I’m set for another 4 years – minimum.

    The rest is just gravy. Regardless if these ads work or not.

    My prediction.

    More people will buy more Macs. Windows will continue to fall apart. AND in a last gasp Microsoft will start trying to buy everything they can to stave of the inevitible. We’re in for quite a ride.

  6. Why are Apple consumers here so obsessed with Market share?
    Are you the same with other products you own?
    Do you fret about Pepsi´s market share? Is the Burger King vs. McDonald´s market share battle cause you to write in their forums about it?
    Does Levi´s drop in the jean market share cause you not to sleep at night?

    I wonder if Porsche owners sit around and talk about the share of the auto market that Porsche has?
    Do Ferrari and Lamborghini owners get together and argue about which company has a larger market share of the luxury sports car sales?

    What would it matter to each of you personally if Apple doubled its market share? Could you write a better novel, draw a better picture, compose a better song on your Mac?
    Apple has about an 80% market share with its iPod. Would you all feel sad if the market share was 60%. Would your music from your iPod sound worse?

    I don´t understand why you all are so concerned about Apple´s market share.

  7. We want Apple – and the Mac – and OS X – to LIVE, man. Live – thrive. We want market share to grow because even a few percentage points would make a HUGE difference. And that would attract more developers and more cool 3rd party applications and products.

    Not to mention our stock shares continued growth!

  8. There are some things that the Mac does that are genuinely impressive. Quick things that are different from the PC and visually easy to demonstrate.

    Why not do a commercial that says:

    Need to find a file?

    Here’s Spotlight…only on a Mac.

    or one that says:

    Need to burn a CD of your photos?

    Here’s how iPhoto does it…only on a Mac

    Want to make a great looking web page?

    Here’s how iWeb does it….only on a Mac

    and so on…

    These are TV spots. They have to be quick, demonstrative, and stress the exclusive nature of what is possible.

    This approach is FAR better than the anthropomorphic approach they are attempting now…I like the spots..they are funny, targeted and engaging…but computers are TOOLS… I think you need to show what they do..and how they differ

  9. @ Queezzie:

    I don’t think ALL of us are obsessed with market share.

    Many see Apple as the equivalent of Mercedes or BMW in the auto industry and would actually hate for the market share to double. That would reduce the “exclusivity” factor. Are BMW, Mercedes and Lamborghini owners aware of the degree of exclusivity? YES . I knew a Porsche owner who knew exacly how many of his model were made that year and how many existed in his State. That is no different in my eyes than market share awareness, but no wish for it to grow.

    Many do hope for the market share to grow. I’m one of them. My guess is that this is partially because of all the bad blood between Apple and Microsoft. The nasty battle that ensued at the begining translated into an ideological crusade of sorts over the years.
    It is also partly because those of us who love the Mac have see it slip in the 90’s and lived through quite a few years of worry that Apple could fold. If you were Snickers bar addict and felt that it could no longer be available, you might have some worries, but if it is the computer company that produces the machine that organizes your life and your work… You might just panic.

    Many think that the better product should dominate the market and have invested in Apple stock… It would make good business sense to follow the market share figures…

    Many just don’t care: They rarely post comments on MDN… ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”LOL” style=”border:0;” />

  10. Why are Apple consumers here so obsessed with Market share?

    First, because more market share means more developer interest & more apps. As good as iLife is, we need more than Apple doing the software.

    Second, because everyone wants to be on the winning team. Everyone wants to be part of something that’s big enough to matter.

    And third, because market share growth equals health. A company that’s steadily (and profitably) growing its market share beats one that’s steadily LOSING share! Its better to be snowballing than to be melting.

  11. Ten years ago Netscape was the king of browsers. Around four years ago no one had heard of Firefox. Nowadays Firefox has ten percent of the market. Assuming that Microsoft keeps falling over, their OS is attacked by viruses and the like and Apple keeps coming out with quality products, anything is possible. Go figure!

  12. The ads will only fail if Apple does what it has done in the past . . . discontinues them after a short time and does not replace them with new ones.

    Apple has no reason to stop advertising now. They have removed a major barrier to advertising the Mac to the general public: They can now run Windows.

    No, I’m not saying Windows is great – it sucks. I know, I ran every single version since Windows 3.1. In 2004 I bought my first Mac. Anyway, the reason this is good is because Apple will not have to worry about some unsuspecting member of the public purchasing a Mac because it’s “pretty” and then attempt to return it when their Windows-only games and other applications they have purchased over time will not run on it (read: on OS X). Now, Apple support can just say, “Go to http://www.apple.com/bootcamp and follow the instructions. No, we don’t support it, but you can do it.”

    Apple is now free to advertise the heck out of the Mac. They no longer have to worry about explaining away the low Ghz rating on the PowerPCs vs. the Intel CPUs. They no longer have to explain that Macs only run OS X and that all your Windows application will not run on it (without slow VMs).

    They can just sell them on their merits – Great hardware, better OS, security, ease of use, etc.

    I do not think we’ll see the advertisements end any time soon. I believe we will see a lot more ads in the future too once these current ads have run their course.

  13. Why is marketshare always used as a measure of success or failure? Does everyone really think that Steve Jobs really cares about marketshare? Have you ever considered that he might be okay with a +-10% marketshare? For Steve Jobs, and Apple, as long as they are making money (profit margin) they will be very content. You pointed this out, but still insisted on market share as the measure. Honestly, this is rediculous. Why would you choose a tool of measure different from that of the company?

  14. I like the ads. I laugh every time I watch them. Humour is always good in advertising and the message is pretty clear to me. Apparently the Japanese girl is saying that the PC guy looks like a Nerd. He reminds me of Dr. Morris in ER!

    Scotty

  15. Queezzie,

    because many of us have bought AAPL!
    (even if it’s just a few, as in my case)

    When the market share increases, the shares go up in value.

    Come on, that’s not too difficult to understand.

  16. Quezzie – We are all worried about market share because Apple is just one person away from slipping into extinction.
    If something would cause Steve Jobs to leave the company, Apple is dead.

  17. At least they are admitting we’re up to a 5% market base, when just a few months ago they kept saying we’d never move beyond the 3% we were holding.

    Slowly but surely, the tortoise plods onward…..beware hare!

  18. No koolaid here wrote:
    <quote>Shouldn’t the ads be targeted towards older people who are especially clueless about computers and need lots of hand holding? sort of like most of the posters here? (present poster excluded of course)</quote>

    That’s a great idea No koolaid! I know that the prime demographic is the greatest number of consumers with the largest amount of disposable income. But there is also a growing number of people out there that want a computer, but are so new to this technology, that they really need a computer as easy as a Mac to own. The problem is that they don’t know it yet.

    Maybe some targeted Mac commercials on Nick at Night, The History Channel, and TV Land would be great for reaching that demographic!

    –rudge

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