The Motley Fool: Apple ‘may be the next Dell’

“How do we value Apple’s stock now [that Boot Camp has been released]? To answer, we’ll need to dig into Apple’s strategy. I’ve got my own opinions on that, but I’ll first give the floor to an old friend of mine, Rich Levin, a former InformationWeek editor and host of a national radio show covering tech topics. We’ve debated this and that about the Mac for what seems like just short of forever,” Tim Beyers writes for The Motley Fool. “This time, however, I think he’s spot-on:”

“It’s the first EFFECTIVE strike at Dell. It’s also a strike at Microsoft, and uses its own OS against them. And it’s a dual-edged ‘Win’ [sic] for Microsoft … Every Windows user will consider a Mac if Apple prices them competitively, and continues to produce computers that have style, superior engineering, and better quality overall in a world of commodity tin-box PCs … Flip side: Apple’s strike at Dell and Microsoft will not be maximally effective unless users don’t encounter limitations. They have to embrace Windows hardware, games, etc.”

Beyers writes, “I couldn’t agree more… Apple’s courtship of Windows users isn’t new. Ever since October 2003, when Apple first released the iTunes Music Store for Windows, Apple has been on a mission to woo PC loyalists. And that makes sense. If CEO Steve Jobs really wants a spot on the couch, he’s got to have a platform that, at the very least, offers the most and best video games. That’s not the Mac today. It’s Windows. (After the Xbox, Playstation, and the like, of course.) Think about that for a second, and then think about this: Every PC maker — Dell especially — wants to be your coach in the Couch Potato Games. To date, they’ve had two advantages over Apple: price and Windows. The first was eroded substantially when the Mac mini debuted with PC-like pricing. The second died with the introduction of Boot Camp. That leaves design and brand appeal as differentiators. Do you really believe Apple can’t win that battle?”

Beyer’s does some calculations and “puts [Apple] stock at more than $137 a share, or at least a double from yesterday’s close…Nice, right? Indeed. Just bear in mind that this valuation has several flaws. For one, Apple may already be richly valued. Second, Apple may not convince a substantial number of Windows users to buy Macs. Third, iPod and iTunes may not remain as dominant as they have been. Finally, there remain distinct differences between Apple and Dell, which could corrupt my assumptions… Bottom line: Apple may end up as the next Gateway. Or it may be the next Dell. Personally, I think the latter is much more likely.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Thankfully, Beyer doesn’t mean Apple will be assembling ugly boxes, slapping somebody’s upside-down and backwards attempt at copying the Mac OS onto them, and then using bait and switch tactics to sell them to dupes online; he means Apple’s going to be selling a lot more Mac hardware now.

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  1. See. Alumninum Apple will will try to compete with affordable tin and plastic, fail and produce something they will call the “new” tin and plastic.

    But, Mac OS is history, as planned.

    Long live tunes world.

  2. truth hurts, what is the iMac case made out of? That’s right, PLASTIC. And yet it still looks better than Dull’s piece of shit boxes.

    Thanks for playing. Try again next time.

  3. Nobody’s going to hurt anybody else. All that’s going to happen is that Apple will sell a bunch more Macs. The other manufacturers aren’t going to be hurt at all.

    Everybody will make more money. That’s all that will happen. No pain for anybody on this one. Quit looking for it. It ain’t there.

  4. F- YOU, CLONE!!

    Apple is dead. There’s no doubt of it anymore.

    Selling tunes is good enough for Jobs’s bottom line.

    Bootcamp will fail just like switcher’s did, and just like the MAC Mini did.

    You MAC tools need to get a life like Shatner said,, this is the beginning of your end.

    Long live my VIRUS-RIDDLED PC!!!!!!!!!!!


  5. Splat:
    I think you’re right it’s going to hurt Sony, Toshiba, HP first.

    People who buy strickly on price and businesses are still Dell’s domain but it will become even more commoditized and Dell’s profits will shrink.
    Sales for Dell will slow slowly at first but then they will begin to slide.

    It’s a new world out there with the beta release of BootCamp.

  6. Why does everyone focus on the one AND ONLY ONE thing that is better in the Winblows world – games? Out of all my PeeCee using friends (note that I said “using”, I didn’t say “loving”; “tolerating” would be more accurate) not one of them is a “gamer”. I’m not a gamer either (although I use a Mac, so that must be the reason, right? Keep believing that.)

    While I agree that Apple needs to shore this issue up since it is their weakest link, I think that we, and the media, should focus on the other 99+% of OS X that is FAR better than Winblows will ever be.

    And, “Truth Hurts” and “Apple is Done”, can you pass me some of the crack that you’ve been smoking?

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