“The iPod is doomed. Not this month, not this year, and maybe not the next. But soon enough, Apple will lose its hold on the marketplace for both digital-audio players and digital songs. It’s inevitable,” John J. Sviokla writes for Fast Company.
“Already the iPod’s features are being copied by Samsung, Dell, iRiver, Sony, and others. Competitors are adding tuners, cameras, gaming, and more to devices. They’re rolling out a host of new music services. Meanwhile, the iPod has not changed much since its debut four years ago — and Apple’s latest iteration, the iPod shuffle, has met with limited success. The competitors will win. Why? Because they have created an economic ecosystem that powers innovation. Apple hasn’t,” Sviokla writes.
“Apple should be opening up the iPod and licensing iTunes to others so they can build out the ecosystem. If it doesn’t, the iPod will lose, just as the brilliant Macintosh computer ceded market leadership years ago to IBM’s dowdier — but more accessible — personal computer. The iPod and iTunes, like any closed system, can give Apple outsized profits — but only for a time. Ultimately, no one company can out-innovate the market,” Sviokla writes.
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Supposing that the market will remain stagant for 20 years is foolish. Apple’s iPod will change and evolve; it isn’t a Sony Walkman cassette player that stays virtually the same for 20 years. And the iPod isn’t the Mac, so stop trying to compare them. Also, please explain how the Apple iPod by HP (with 8% of the market, making it the number 2 digital media player) and the upcoming Motorola iTunes phone line constitute a closed system?
The Macintosh platform required and still requires huge investments by developers to create compatible software. So, when faced with budgetary contraints, they chose and still sometimes choose to go with the most popular platforms. The iPod simply plays music that can be encoded, for very little cost, in any format the “developers” (musicians and labels) desire: AAC, MP3, WMA, etc. The music doesn’t need to be rewritten, recorded, and remastered. It’s like writing Photoshop once and then pressing a button to translate it for use on Mac, Windows, Linux, etc. To draw an analogy between Mac OS licensing and the iPod/iTunes symbiotic relationship simply highlights the writer’s ignorance of the vast differences between the two business situations.
[UPDATE, 10:55pm: And, as “CDN guy” brings up below, what about the iPod economy of third-party accessory and peripheral makers? See related article below.]
Related MacDailyNews articles:
Report: Apple may be meeting goal of selling 1 million iPod shuffles per month – July 15, 2005
Apple’s iPod shuffle takes nearly 60 percent of US flash-player market in March – May 04, 2005
The iPod is not the Mac, so stop trying to compare them – August 13, 2004
Apple iPod owners spend millions on accessories, keep ‘iPod economy’ churning – March 04, 2005
but there is an economic ecosystem out there – iPod peripherals!
“Apple’s latest iteration, the iPod shuffle, has met with limited success.”
Oh really now? Seeing as how they’ve sold more iPod shuffles this year alone (1 million per month estimated sales) than all other manufacturers have sold total players combined, I’d hardly call it a “limited success.” This just goes to show once again that any idiot with a keyboard and a Windows license can publish drivel on the internet…
“”The iPod is doomed. Not this month, not this year, and maybe not the next. But soon enough, Apple will lose its hold on the marketplace for both digital-audio players and digital songs. It’s inevitable,”
Must be nice to make predictions that are so open ended that you never have to be accountable for them.
All scientists will tell you that someday, not 10 years from now, not 100, or a thousand, or maybe even a million years from now, the sun will burn out killing all life on earth. It will happen soon enough, it’s inevitable.
sounds like they’re being sarcastic…
but then again, they could just be idiots
mike, I know where my vote will go: idiots.
Also, not only the sun will turn into a Nova, it’s inevitable, but also the Earth will be hit by an asteroid: it happened before, it’s going to happen maybe not this month, not this year but soon enough it will happen. It’s inevitable.
http://www.diamondcluster.com/people/svioklaj/personal.htm
How can you be this educated and clueless at the same time!
Where he works:
http://www.diamondcluster.com/People/BoardBio.asp?src=svioklaj
who gives cares about fm tuners? people get ipod hook ups for their car so they can listen to the ipod not the radio. why listen to commercials and static, when you can have digital audio on demand, and no satellites please?
look more functionality is fine, but people need to realize there is a trade off between ease of use and the integration of more features. the genius of the ipod is that it holds and plays large digital music collections in such an elegant way. apple has done some thinking, about functionality and user experience. you need to do more than simply determined how many things can be stuffed into ipod; you need to think about what you really want out of the device, and try to maximize that goal.
“Windows 95 is doomed. Not this month, not this year, and maybe not the next. But soon enough, Apple will lose its hold on the marketplace for both digital-audio players and digital songs. It’s inevitable.”
what a dumbass. Here’s a prediction for you. Everything in it’s current state without changing will fade away. WOW how profound!
iPod Shuffle? Limited success?
Try telling that to Sim Wong Hoo, of beleaguered Creative Technology, who watched the iPod Shuffle take nearly 50% of the flash-player market in just three months.
Seriously, think for ten seconds before you write drivel.
Also note that a closed system is one that does not let other platforms use it. Apple is the only music download company that supports PC & Mac with virtually the same software. Name one other company that supports both PC & Mac? There is your closed system John J. Sviokla.
Welcome to the macobservers list of doom for Apple. This list has been running for at least 5 years. I’m sure this story will be added sometime this week. Why is everyone comparing the iPod to the Mac of yester year anyways. The Macs of today are winning market share. The iPod has just evolved a couple of weeks ago giving everyone a color display for the same prices. I wouldn’t doubt if the iPod imini is next to recieve a color display.
So basically this guy has his head where the sun don’t shine. The usual I don’t know what I’m talking about, don’t have any facts writer on the internet. Bla,bla,bla,………
This guy looks like Kevin Spacey! lol
It’s Dr. John J. Sviokla. His Ph.D must be in “uncreative thinking” with a minor in “absurdity”!
OOOPS
“Windows 95 is doomed. Not this month, not this year, and maybe not the next. But soon enough, Microsoft will lose its hold on the marketplace for both computer operating systems and productivity software. It’s inevitable.”
Monday, July 25, 3015 – 10:13 AM EST
Apple’s reluctant to open up their licensing restrictions has finally cost them the top spot in the hotly contested holographic music market place. The revolutionary Pepsi PPod, developed by Richard Scully (great great grandson of John Sculley) gained 44.3689% market share to Apple’s 44.3688%.
Yeah right…dream on Fast Company.
Wow. So the iPod’s simplified, perfected design is stagnant, but its competitors’ desperate plays for attention by adding ever more bells and whistles and buttons is innovative? Talk about clueless.
You know why iPod is unbeatable? Two reasons:
First, It’s iconic. Everyone knows what an iPod looks like. The competitors are a jumbled mess. There’s not even any consistency within brand names. No Creative player is instantly identifiable.
The second reason is the dock port that enables all the myriad peripherals. As I understand it, no other player has a similar control scheme, so this stuff isn’t even possible on the wannabe players.
The iPod has won, just like the Walkman won. It will lose market share as the product becomes a commodity, but it still be the number-one seller. And just like the Walkman, it will stay number one until the market moves away from the product altogether. When digital audio players are replaced by the Next Best Thing, only then will the iPod Age come to an end.
This is the same magazine that in Jan 2004 publish a cover article about Apple and Steve Jobs and the limits of innovation. They claimed that the iPod would not save Apple and that innovation would not help them either. Good call, morons. Steve is a billionare because he sees the world five years ahead, where most consultants and business writers are lucky to see it six months from now or should I say as it was six months ago). By the time the competition catches up, Steve and Apple will be on to the next big thing.
diamondcluster.com…those who don’t create or innovate, just sit around yakking about those who do and making airy-fairy predictions about same.
diamondcluster.com=circle jerk, sviolka must be the pivot man
DOOM DOOM – THE WORLD IS GONNA END!!!
FFS what is it with these ANAL-ists – as long as Apple evolves the ipod then im sorry to say ‘the ipod is NOT doomed’.
It is here to stay.
May not be in the same form factor as it is today – but it’s here to stay!
SJ has said that if they start losing significant market share, Apple will open the ipod up to other inferior music formats.
Don’t forget the fact that car makers are putting ipod dics in factory fitted cars now, a whole economy on accessories, ipod phones and Apple linking with other partners and putting the itunes brand on key music events it looks like these guys are talking out there ass as usual.
Yes the mobile phone MAY one day de-throne the ipod in it’s current form factor – BUT Apple is working on phone with motorola – so that base is covered.
Apple long as Apple adds new features, services etc for the ipod brand – making it a unique and desirable product then they will retain their lead.
The Shuffle is a fashion accessory already—people dont care what they do , they care what color they are….The IPOD is already ubiquitous–it doesnt matter what it does or will do—Imagine its 1960 or so and some one is saying look we can make a hoola hoop that is just as good as the one that the hoola hoop people make—OR—our Jello is actually better than Jello’s Jello—its too late. You arent hoola hoop–you arent jello –you arent IPOD. And oh yeah—Im not sure but I think pretty much we are all doomed–sooner or later–I hope much later–but sooner or later—this war’s gonna end.
I quote Brett Favre:
“if you don’t think I can do it, just bet against me.”
Yeah, i know, i eat lemongrass and tofu, but damnit, if i don’t like the spunk in that kid from Mississippi…
re: It’s Dr. John J. Sviokla. His Ph.D must be in “uncreative thinking” with a minor in “absurdity”!
All because he’s got a Ph.D don’t mean he’s got a brain!
I know alot of intellegant people that know fuck all!
I just don’t understand why people want to see Apple lose so badly. I thought America was all about the underdog winning – when did it get turned around? It’s Apple vs everyone else, Apple is the sole company with a cross-platform solution, and Apple is winning by a mile.
The iPod isn’t just an MP3 player, it’s a platform. The current iPod as we know today is “doomed”, but it will evolve, like everything else. It doesn’t take a paid analyst to figure that out.
Another retarded “journalist” commanding on the ” closed” system of iPod without doing any homework. The standard of “journalism” just keeps sinking. MDN readers don’t waste your time reading this crap!!!
F@st Company is a horrible publication. Disregard anything they have to say.
John needs to learn the difference between innovation in a product and evolution of a product. I worked for many years in a big computer company, and these big guys have not created an “economic ecosystem that powers innovation”.
They don’t know what the word innovation means (except money and time). It’s true that the big computer companies have an economic ecosystem but it’s a “good ole boy” network that evolves a product.
Apple owns innovation by their products. It can be seen in their OS, Applications and Hardware. Know matter how bad John wants Apple to loose he should pray for them to continue to win. Apple is challenging the “good ole boys” and forcing them to keep up with innovation.
I find it funny that after all the criticism people have of Apple iPods and iTunes they still love the parts, but what it on their terms. I don’t see any trend that proves John’s (wishes) ideas correct.
WMD
Yep, TV will die an ugly death, too. It’ll happen someday, just watch.
Geez. I will never forget when John C. Dvorak predicted that CD-ROM would never take off and that the World Wide Web was overrated, not to mention all the predictions that Apple would die unless they opened themselves up to their competitors by licensing the Mac OS.
Here we are again, only this time it’s a product hotter than the Mac. Apple better open up the “closed” iPod, because they are going to be out-innovated, so they might as well cash in before the competition passes them by. Right.
The competition lacks the monolithic (in miniature) design of the iPod. Just look at Cnet’s current roundup of “iPod killers”. Even models that have had refinement still look abysmal next to the flawless design of the iPod.
I use my iPod in the car, on my bike, and sometimes at work, and I never even need to look at it to operate it. One input device controls the whole thing, and it does so flawlessly. Why hasn’t Apple updated the Click Wheel? Ummm, because “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” certainly applies. The Click Wheel is utterly intuitive and feels absolutely futuristic compared to any other electronic input device I’ve ever used. Until Apple innovates telepathic input, I hope they don’t stray far from the current design.
The competition lacks two extremely valuable assets. Steve Jobs and Jonathan Ive. Steve Jobs saw the potential of the iPod, and Jonathan Ive perfected the design by taking away unnecessary elements. Mr. Jobs has impeccable insight into who to add to his team(s) (Jonathan Ive, Brad Bird (yes, I know, a Pixar team member), and most recently, Mike Matas. Which Apple competitor has this advantage?
Even some Apple and iPod fans were “disappointed” with the last round of iPod update, lusting for the rumored 5G, and claiming the changes to the iPod were not great enough. Come on. Tack on “me too” features, and you may end up with a beast that is every but as ugly and unintuitive to use as the competitors’ devices. The real iPod killer, when technology dictates one, will come from Apple. They KNOW what they are doing, and I’m sure we haven’t seen anything yet.
Michael
People just don’t get it.. We all want things that just work – The iPod palys music, why the hell do we want it to take pictures and play videos or any of this other crap.. By the way when the hell are they going to make a cell phone that just makes calls, not all of this other stuff – internet – pictures – music…
Stop already..
The 8 track tape is doomed I tell ya!!!
And before you know it the record player sales will slow down too, you heard it here first.
NEWS FLASH — THE WORLD WILL COME TO AN END
some day….
I quote Brett Favre: “if you don’t think I can do it, just bet against me.”
———–
Following your lead, I paraphrase Lee Iacocca: “If you can find a better music player, buy it.”
The article is obviously nothing more than flame bait. No need to email the idiot behind the FUD of useless text!
John J. Sviokla is doomed. Not this month, not this year, and maybe not the next. But soon enough, John will lose his hold on life on die just like the rest of us will.
OMG! This guy was a former Associate Professor at the Harvard Business School!!!???!!!
Un-frigging-belivable!
Guess that’s why he is a “former”. All the REAL Professors probably had him kicked out on the grounds that he doesn’t have a clue as to understanding how business works.
Hey John – read all the posts above mine and you will see how you have been bested by us little folks.
I can’t believe that this article was actually posted/printed. This guy may have a PhD, but it must be in gynocology, because he knows absolutely ZERO about what he is writing.
By the way, the iPod has changed. iTunes, IPhoto and soon Quicktime. Not to mention that many people use it to transfer files. Shocking!!!
Uh, can I speak to the editor of this web rag for a moment? You obviously know less than the guy who wrote this article, and for that you should be fired!
Fasy Company? Can we see some heads roll for this one?
RL
I don’t have anything much to add; many of the previous posts already make the points I had in mind. I just wanted to say that by pure coincidence, CNN will air a special on the impact of the iPod on popular culture tonight. Watch out for it. An entire CNN special devoted to a consumer electronic device. That’s the kiss of death, alright.
>Also, please explain how the Apple iPod by HP (with 8% of the market, making it the number 2 digital media player) and the upcoming Motorola iTunes phone line constitute a closed system?
One line of reasoning… can the iPod play tunes downloaded from anything other than iTMS?
Another… can any other player play songs downloaded from iTMS?
And well… that pretty much sums up what a closed system is.
>Also, please explain how the Apple iPod by HP (with 8% of the market, making it the number 2 digital media player) and the upcoming Motorola iTunes phone line constitute a closed system?
One line of reasoning… can the iPod play tunes downloaded from anything other than iTMS?
Another… can any other player play songs downloaded from iTMS?
And well… that pretty much sums up what a closed system is.
>Also, please explain how the Apple iPod by HP (with 8% of the market, making it the number 2 digital media player) and the upcoming Motorola iTunes phone line constitute a closed system?
One line of reasoning… can the iPod play tunes downloaded from anything other than iTMS?
Another… can any other player play songs downloaded from iTMS?
And well… that pretty much sums up what a closed system is.
— that pretty much sums up what a closed system is.
Mac & PC Guy, can a PC user download music from iTMS and all of the WMA music stores?
Yes.
Can a Mac user download music from iTMS and any of the WMA music stores?
No.
Perhaps that ALSO pretty much sums up what a closed system is. The WMA music stores are closed to Mac users by the stores’ own choice. WMP 10 is not available to Mac users.
> Bob C:
Good points.
With Apple locking its iTMS-downloaded songs via Fairplay and *REFUSING* to license it, MS probably figures it shouldn’t open up to the Mac world in response.
But it’s probably closer to reality that Apple wants to lock the Mac world into iTMS so it can squeeze as much current and future sales out of customers as it can. Buy iTMS songs and you will be buying an iPod as your next player, like it or not.
So… there’s the closed system in a nutshell.
> Bob C:
Good points.
With Apple locking its iTMS-downloaded songs via Fairplay and *REFUSING* to license it, MS probably figures it shouldn’t open up to the Mac world in response.
But it’s probably closer to reality that Apple wants to lock the Mac world into iTMS so it can squeeze as much current and future sales out of customers as it can. Buy iTMS songs and you will be buying an iPod as your next player, like it or not.
So… there’s the closed system in a nutshell.
> Bob C:
Good points.
With Apple locking its iTMS-downloaded songs via Fairplay and *REFUSING* to license it, MS probably figures it shouldn’t open up to the Mac world in response.
But it’s probably closer to reality that Apple wants to lock the Mac world into iTMS so it can squeeze as much current and future sales out of customers as it can. Buy iTMS songs and you will be buying an iPod as your next player, like it or not.
So… there’s the closed system in a nutshell.
Seems like Fast Company is doomed.
“Last month, Fast Company and Inc., the remaining remnants of G+J’s magazine foothold in the U.S., were sold for $35 million Chicago-based billionaire Joe Mansueto, who outbid a collection of heavy hitters—including The Economist Group and Time Inc.—for the rights to the former new economy business magazines. It was widely reported that Byrne coaxed Mansueto to enter the bidding process because the Morningstar Inc. founder would keep Fast Company afloat—something the other bidders were not willing to do. “Some bidders clearly have little, if any, interest in Fast Company,” Byrne wrote in a June 14 post on Fast Company’s FC Now blog.”
Link here.
http://www.foliomag.com/index.php?id=396&backPID=392&tt_news=1039
Mac & PC guy – are you really that dense?
“Buy iTMS songs and you will be buying an iPod as your next player, like it or not.”
What part about – buy a song from iTunes, rip onto a CD, re-rip into any format with no DRM (as many times as you please)- DON’T YOU UNDERSTAND??
During the first five months of this year… Fast Company’s [ad pages] fell 15.4%, to 188.2, according to Publisher’s Information Bureau. During their heyday in the late 1990s, “you needed two hands to carry them,” says Samir Husani, chairman of the journalism department at the University of Mississippi. Now, “you can fold them and put them in your back pocket.”
“”The iPod is doomed. Not this month, not this year, and maybe not the next. But soon enough, Apple will lose its hold on the marketplace”
Oh really. eBay has been the king of online auctions since they were founded. Even after experiencing growing pains and the occasional challenge for the crown, eBay seems to be surviving just fine.
For Apple to lost its lead, it’d take the combination of a competitor with a serious killer app, and Apple being too arrogant or lazy to answer the threat — neither are likely at this time. Granted the iPod hasn’t seen revolutionary change, but it hasn’t been needed. Steve Jobs is the king of the software skunk works; I can only wonder what Apple has lurking in the basement “just in case”.
CLOOOK!!!
Homerun…
To easy:
Everything will be doomed. Not tomorrow, and maybe not next year.
Ergo
The iPod will be doomed
This post will be doomed
And this article is already doomed
Can this writer be more vague?
I think yes he can
Of course it is doomed. The VCR is doomed too. Even CDs and DVDs will soon disappeare. I’ll still be getting an iPod (hopefuly a video version soon??) even if it was the second or third best.
When you put the words “may” or “possible” in ANY sentence it is by definition ALWAYS true.
This is another example of the “dumbing” down of the media in general.
eg:
“It is believed that a group of terrorists may have been planning a possible terrorist attack…”
YEP – 100% true.
It is POSSIBLE we will all be dead tomorrow… You cannot deny that this is a truth, however unlikely.
So here we have Mr Sviokla making the INCREADIBLE prediction that on an OPEN ended time scale Apple will EVENTUALLY lose dominance in the digital music game – WOW!!! I am 100% sure he is absolutely correct!
WATCH THE NEWS TONIGHT and listen out for how many times the words “may” and “possible” are used. In doing this news agencies no longer have to check for accuracy, or validate their information!!!!
I remember the first time someone pointed this out to me, and I watched the news that night, 1st up was a story “The New South Wales (state) government have said that terrorists may have been planning to attack various landmarks in Sydney”. This is worrying stuff, but when you look at the language it is simply speculation. Remove the word “may” and you get “The New South Wales (state) government have said that terrorists have been planning to attack various landmarks in Sydney” – notice how this “news” would require a MUCH higher burden of PROOF.
This is a CLASSIC strategy in propaganda, broadcast “news” with a whole heap of “may” and “possible” in the content. It is also the way fortune tellers “read” your future… “I see a possible encounter with a tall dark….” “you may travel to…”
The print media is generally better, but even they are getting hooked on the absolute truth that lies in “may” and “possible”.
The problem is the AVERAGE Joe and Jane don’t have enough knowledge of the language to discern this subtle difference, and so they take the information as fact, rather than the SPECULATION (and headline sensationalism) that it is.
I don’t think you should IGNORE the news, just be very cautious to believe anything as FACT, when the magical words of “may” and “possible” are included in the “reporting”.
my 2 cents,
Luke
PS I don’t usually do this, but the magic word is “stop”, as in STOP, listen and assess the language used to reprot “facts”.
>Chris wrote: (insults snipped) What part about – buy a song from iTunes, rip onto a CD, re-rip into any format with no DRM (as many times as you please)- DON’T YOU UNDERSTAND??
Read your license agreement. Think about it for more than a split-second so that maybe you can gain a better understanding of things beyond the ultra-simplistic view you hold.
Then come back and comment.
Have a nice day.
>Chris wrote: (insults snipped) What part about – buy a song from iTunes, rip onto a CD, re-rip into any format with no DRM (as many times as you please)- DON’T YOU UNDERSTAND??
Read your license agreement. Think about it for more than a split-second so that maybe you can gain a better understanding of things beyond the ultra-simplistic view you hold.
Then come back and comment.
Have a nice day.
>Chris wrote: (insults snipped) What part about – buy a song from iTunes, rip onto a CD, re-rip into any format with no DRM (as many times as you please)- DON’T YOU UNDERSTAND??
Read your license agreement. Think about it for more than a split-second so that maybe you can gain a better understanding of things beyond the ultra-simplistic view you hold.
Then come back and comment.
Have a nice day.
Well said, Luke in Oz!
“John J. Sviokla is former Associate Professor and Baxter Fellow in Information Technology at the Harvard Business School. He received his B.A. from Harvard College and his M.B.A. and D.B.A. from Harvard University with a major in Management Information Systems.”
Well, that says it all ” Management Information Systems.” are the crowd at the denser (ironically more well paid) end of most campuses despite knowing bugger all about computing (generally they use IBM-PC compatible systems and legacy IBM mainframes as they struggle to comprehend anything else.
Recently a Business School was put in at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Oz by cutting funding to key areas such as Chemistry, Geography, Physics, Mathematics so that the military graduates can come out with a Business degree but not any useful knowledge about the above areas which might be more useful (e.g. chemical warfare).
Needless to say, this is the nature of the current world … but there is still hope … winter in Canberra here and a shaft of sun-shine has appeared in my kitchen … cool … spring (MW) is not too far away!
(Sorry about that digression, but after before recent surgery I wasn’t sure I’d see Spring coming … blooming wattles etc … and hopefully some new Apple boxes to play with when I can get back to work!