“The iPod is doomed. Not this month, not this year, and maybe not the next. But soon enough, Apple will lose its hold on the marketplace for both digital-audio players and digital songs. It’s inevitable,” John J. Sviokla writes for Fast Company.
“Already the iPod’s features are being copied by Samsung, Dell, iRiver, Sony, and others. Competitors are adding tuners, cameras, gaming, and more to devices. They’re rolling out a host of new music services. Meanwhile, the iPod has not changed much since its debut four years ago — and Apple’s latest iteration, the iPod shuffle, has met with limited success. The competitors will win. Why? Because they have created an economic ecosystem that powers innovation. Apple hasn’t,” Sviokla writes.
“Apple should be opening up the iPod and licensing iTunes to others so they can build out the ecosystem. If it doesn’t, the iPod will lose, just as the brilliant Macintosh computer ceded market leadership years ago to IBM’s dowdier — but more accessible — personal computer. The iPod and iTunes, like any closed system, can give Apple outsized profits — but only for a time. Ultimately, no one company can out-innovate the market,” Sviokla writes.
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Supposing that the market will remain stagant for 20 years is foolish. Apple’s iPod will change and evolve; it isn’t a Sony Walkman cassette player that stays virtually the same for 20 years. And the iPod isn’t the Mac, so stop trying to compare them. Also, please explain how the Apple iPod by HP (with 8% of the market, making it the number 2 digital media player) and the upcoming Motorola iTunes phone line constitute a closed system?
The Macintosh platform required and still requires huge investments by developers to create compatible software. So, when faced with budgetary contraints, they chose and still sometimes choose to go with the most popular platforms. The iPod simply plays music that can be encoded, for very little cost, in any format the “developers” (musicians and labels) desire: AAC, MP3, WMA, etc. The music doesn’t need to be rewritten, recorded, and remastered. It’s like writing Photoshop once and then pressing a button to translate it for use on Mac, Windows, Linux, etc. To draw an analogy between Mac OS licensing and the iPod/iTunes symbiotic relationship simply highlights the writer’s ignorance of the vast differences between the two business situations.
[UPDATE, 10:55pm: And, as “CDN guy” brings up below, what about the iPod economy of third-party accessory and peripheral makers? See related article below.]
Related MacDailyNews articles:
Report: Apple may be meeting goal of selling 1 million iPod shuffles per month – July 15, 2005
Apple’s iPod shuffle takes nearly 60 percent of US flash-player market in March – May 04, 2005
The iPod is not the Mac, so stop trying to compare them – August 13, 2004
Apple iPod owners spend millions on accessories, keep ‘iPod economy’ churning – March 04, 2005
F@st Company is a horrible publication. Disregard anything they have to say.
John needs to learn the difference between innovation in a product and evolution of a product. I worked for many years in a big computer company, and these big guys have not created an “economic ecosystem that powers innovation”.
They don’t know what the word innovation means (except money and time). It’s true that the big computer companies have an economic ecosystem but it’s a “good ole boy” network that evolves a product.
Apple owns innovation by their products. It can be seen in their OS, Applications and Hardware. Know matter how bad John wants Apple to loose he should pray for them to continue to win. Apple is challenging the “good ole boys” and forcing them to keep up with innovation.
I find it funny that after all the criticism people have of Apple iPods and iTunes they still love the parts, but what it on their terms. I don’t see any trend that proves John’s (wishes) ideas correct.
WMD
Yep, TV will die an ugly death, too. It’ll happen someday, just watch.
Geez. I will never forget when John C. Dvorak predicted that CD-ROM would never take off and that the World Wide Web was overrated, not to mention all the predictions that Apple would die unless they opened themselves up to their competitors by licensing the Mac OS.
Here we are again, only this time it’s a product hotter than the Mac. Apple better open up the “closed” iPod, because they are going to be out-innovated, so they might as well cash in before the competition passes them by. Right.
The competition lacks the monolithic (in miniature) design of the iPod. Just look at Cnet’s current roundup of “iPod killers”. Even models that have had refinement still look abysmal next to the flawless design of the iPod.
I use my iPod in the car, on my bike, and sometimes at work, and I never even need to look at it to operate it. One input device controls the whole thing, and it does so flawlessly. Why hasn’t Apple updated the Click Wheel? Ummm, because “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” certainly applies. The Click Wheel is utterly intuitive and feels absolutely futuristic compared to any other electronic input device I’ve ever used. Until Apple innovates telepathic input, I hope they don’t stray far from the current design.
The competition lacks two extremely valuable assets. Steve Jobs and Jonathan Ive. Steve Jobs saw the potential of the iPod, and Jonathan Ive perfected the design by taking away unnecessary elements. Mr. Jobs has impeccable insight into who to add to his team(s) (Jonathan Ive, Brad Bird (yes, I know, a Pixar team member), and most recently, Mike Matas. Which Apple competitor has this advantage?
Even some Apple and iPod fans were “disappointed” with the last round of iPod update, lusting for the rumored 5G, and claiming the changes to the iPod were not great enough. Come on. Tack on “me too” features, and you may end up with a beast that is every but as ugly and unintuitive to use as the competitors’ devices. The real iPod killer, when technology dictates one, will come from Apple. They KNOW what they are doing, and I’m sure we haven’t seen anything yet.
Michael
People just don’t get it.. We all want things that just work – The iPod palys music, why the hell do we want it to take pictures and play videos or any of this other crap.. By the way when the hell are they going to make a cell phone that just makes calls, not all of this other stuff – internet – pictures – music…
Stop already..
The 8 track tape is doomed I tell ya!!!
And before you know it the record player sales will slow down too, you heard it here first.
NEWS FLASH — THE WORLD WILL COME TO AN END
some day….
I quote Brett Favre: “if you don’t think I can do it, just bet against me.”
———–
Following your lead, I paraphrase Lee Iacocca: “If you can find a better music player, buy it.”
The article is obviously nothing more than flame bait. No need to email the idiot behind the FUD of useless text!
John J. Sviokla is doomed. Not this month, not this year, and maybe not the next. But soon enough, John will lose his hold on life on die just like the rest of us will.
OMG! This guy was a former Associate Professor at the Harvard Business School!!!???!!!
Un-frigging-belivable!
Guess that’s why he is a “former”. All the REAL Professors probably had him kicked out on the grounds that he doesn’t have a clue as to understanding how business works.
Hey John – read all the posts above mine and you will see how you have been bested by us little folks.
I can’t believe that this article was actually posted/printed. This guy may have a PhD, but it must be in gynocology, because he knows absolutely ZERO about what he is writing.
By the way, the iPod has changed. iTunes, IPhoto and soon Quicktime. Not to mention that many people use it to transfer files. Shocking!!!
Uh, can I speak to the editor of this web rag for a moment? You obviously know less than the guy who wrote this article, and for that you should be fired!
Fasy Company? Can we see some heads roll for this one?
RL
I don’t have anything much to add; many of the previous posts already make the points I had in mind. I just wanted to say that by pure coincidence, CNN will air a special on the impact of the iPod on popular culture tonight. Watch out for it. An entire CNN special devoted to a consumer electronic device. That’s the kiss of death, alright.
>Also, please explain how the Apple iPod by HP (with 8% of the market, making it the number 2 digital media player) and the upcoming Motorola iTunes phone line constitute a closed system?
One line of reasoning… can the iPod play tunes downloaded from anything other than iTMS?
Another… can any other player play songs downloaded from iTMS?
And well… that pretty much sums up what a closed system is.
>Also, please explain how the Apple iPod by HP (with 8% of the market, making it the number 2 digital media player) and the upcoming Motorola iTunes phone line constitute a closed system?
One line of reasoning… can the iPod play tunes downloaded from anything other than iTMS?
Another… can any other player play songs downloaded from iTMS?
And well… that pretty much sums up what a closed system is.
>Also, please explain how the Apple iPod by HP (with 8% of the market, making it the number 2 digital media player) and the upcoming Motorola iTunes phone line constitute a closed system?
One line of reasoning… can the iPod play tunes downloaded from anything other than iTMS?
Another… can any other player play songs downloaded from iTMS?
And well… that pretty much sums up what a closed system is.
— that pretty much sums up what a closed system is.
Mac & PC Guy, can a PC user download music from iTMS and all of the WMA music stores?
Yes.
Can a Mac user download music from iTMS and any of the WMA music stores?
No.
Perhaps that ALSO pretty much sums up what a closed system is. The WMA music stores are closed to Mac users by the stores’ own choice. WMP 10 is not available to Mac users.
> Bob C:
Good points.
With Apple locking its iTMS-downloaded songs via Fairplay and *REFUSING* to license it, MS probably figures it shouldn’t open up to the Mac world in response.
But it’s probably closer to reality that Apple wants to lock the Mac world into iTMS so it can squeeze as much current and future sales out of customers as it can. Buy iTMS songs and you will be buying an iPod as your next player, like it or not.
So… there’s the closed system in a nutshell.
> Bob C:
Good points.
With Apple locking its iTMS-downloaded songs via Fairplay and *REFUSING* to license it, MS probably figures it shouldn’t open up to the Mac world in response.
But it’s probably closer to reality that Apple wants to lock the Mac world into iTMS so it can squeeze as much current and future sales out of customers as it can. Buy iTMS songs and you will be buying an iPod as your next player, like it or not.
So… there’s the closed system in a nutshell.
> Bob C:
Good points.
With Apple locking its iTMS-downloaded songs via Fairplay and *REFUSING* to license it, MS probably figures it shouldn’t open up to the Mac world in response.
But it’s probably closer to reality that Apple wants to lock the Mac world into iTMS so it can squeeze as much current and future sales out of customers as it can. Buy iTMS songs and you will be buying an iPod as your next player, like it or not.
So… there’s the closed system in a nutshell.
Seems like Fast Company is doomed.
“Last month, Fast Company and Inc., the remaining remnants of G+J’s magazine foothold in the U.S., were sold for $35 million Chicago-based billionaire Joe Mansueto, who outbid a collection of heavy hitters—including The Economist Group and Time Inc.—for the rights to the former new economy business magazines. It was widely reported that Byrne coaxed Mansueto to enter the bidding process because the Morningstar Inc. founder would keep Fast Company afloat—something the other bidders were not willing to do. “Some bidders clearly have little, if any, interest in Fast Company,” Byrne wrote in a June 14 post on Fast Company’s FC Now blog.”
Link here.
http://www.foliomag.com/index.php?id=396&backPID=392&tt_news=1039
Mac & PC guy – are you really that dense?
“Buy iTMS songs and you will be buying an iPod as your next player, like it or not.”
What part about – buy a song from iTunes, rip onto a CD, re-rip into any format with no DRM (as many times as you please)- DON’T YOU UNDERSTAND??
During the first five months of this year… Fast Company’s [ad pages] fell 15.4%, to 188.2, according to Publisher’s Information Bureau. During their heyday in the late 1990s, “you needed two hands to carry them,” says Samir Husani, chairman of the journalism department at the University of Mississippi. Now, “you can fold them and put them in your back pocket.”
“”The iPod is doomed. Not this month, not this year, and maybe not the next. But soon enough, Apple will lose its hold on the marketplace”
Oh really. eBay has been the king of online auctions since they were founded. Even after experiencing growing pains and the occasional challenge for the crown, eBay seems to be surviving just fine.
For Apple to lost its lead, it’d take the combination of a competitor with a serious killer app, and Apple being too arrogant or lazy to answer the threat — neither are likely at this time. Granted the iPod hasn’t seen revolutionary change, but it hasn’t been needed. Steve Jobs is the king of the software skunk works; I can only wonder what Apple has lurking in the basement “just in case”.
CLOOOK!!!
Homerun…
To easy:
Everything will be doomed. Not tomorrow, and maybe not next year.
Ergo
The iPod will be doomed
This post will be doomed
And this article is already doomed
Can this writer be more vague?
I think yes he can
Of course it is doomed. The VCR is doomed too. Even CDs and DVDs will soon disappeare. I’ll still be getting an iPod (hopefuly a video version soon??) even if it was the second or third best.