“Five weeks ago, the iPod Garage boldly predicted that Apple would sell no less than six million iPods in the current holiday quarter. And while this prediction was a full fifty percent higher than that of even the most optimistic wall street analysts, this week’s revelation (brought to you first by the iPod Garage) that Apple is selling every single iPod it can manufacture has led us to believe that our estimate has even more merit than we had originally thought. So let’s take another look at just why Apple will in fact sell six million iPods this quarter,” Bill Palmer writes for iPod Garage.
“Let’s start with what we already know for sure. In the July-to-September quarter of 2003, Apple sold about 330,000 iPods. Then, in the holiday quarter of 2003, Apple managed to sell more than twice that amount, or about 730,000 iPods. We also know that Apple sold 2 million iPods in the July-to-September quarter of 2004, so if we’re to believe that Apple can sell twice as many iPods in a given holiday quarter as it can in the quarter directly preceding it, then we should feel safe in predicting that Apple will sell 4 million iPods during this holiday quarter. Perhaps the rumors were true after all,” Palmer writes. “But wait a minute here, because that number would only hold true in a vacuum, in which there were no other factors at play. And if you ‘ve been paying attention at all during the past few weeks, you’ll know that this is certainly not the case.”
Palmer explains why Apple will sell 6 million iPod units this quarter in his full article, an interesting read, here.
MacDailyNews Take: Or could it be even more?
If Apple’s supply chain wasn’t so bad, they could easily sell more.
“…led us to believe that our estimate has even more merit than we had originally thought.”
So they didn’t originally think that their estimate had any merit?
I like Bill’s stuff, but his faith in Apple makes most of us look like Doubting Thomases! (Now there’s a label that doesn’t get attached to us very often
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Yeah, Apple’s supply is bad… but has gotten better. There was a lot of iPod stock available this year… did they underestimate? Only time will tell, however, it’s only a week until Christmas, so, if stocks hold out they’ll have made it.
Treadlightly, just to clarify:
It’s not that I didn’t think my estimate had merit, as I did reach it by crunching numbers (albeit a series of estimated ones). It’s just that with my prediction being so much larger than anyone else’s (a full 2 million), I was really beginning to wonder if I was just plain crazy. But the reports of iPods selling out told me that maybe I wasn’t so crazy after all.
As far as my faith in Apple, I wouldn’t refer to it as “faith” so much as continued amazement at what the company has been able to pull off over the past few years. I mean, did anyone think that the iPod could be this insanely popular? No, not even me, likely not even Apple itself.
I didn’t make my six million iPod prediction based on faith. I made it based on the iPod’s continual ability to show ridiculous quarter-over-quarter sales, combined with the fact that this is a holiday quarter, combined with the addition of HP and the specialized iPod models, etc.
I suppose we’ll know the results soon enough.
Much thanks,
Bill
The thing I like about Bill is his philosophy that if it can be said in 100 words, 1,000 will be even better. For days when I have nothing to do, I thank him for trying to fill it.
I don’t know about 6 million, but if you include HP iPod sales, I’ll be surprised if it’s not at least 5 million instead of the analysts predictions of 4 million.
Did Apple even *make* 6 million units for this quarter??
I mean, I know that last month Steve was saying that everyone that wanted to buy iPods for Christmas should go ahead and get them early, but did Apple actually make enough units to be able to sell that many? Wow, 6 million. That seems like an awful lot.
However, it would be fantastic if Apple does sell that many!
Apple has to depend on vendors to ramp up and deliver product. This includes all the companies that provide components for the iPod. In addition, the most important component, the hard drive, is fully dependent on whether Hitachi (for the mini) and Toshiba (for the standard) can provide sufficent quantites. Toshiba finally was able to do so at the beginning of this year. Hitachi is still not meeting demand as Apple noted in the last analyst meeting in saying that mini product may be constrained. Each of these companies and the other vendors have to make decisions as to capital investment into increasing their ability to manufacture components. They also need to train a work force to manufacture the product. It usually takes “a quarter” – 4 months to ramp up in the high tech world. Give Apple a break. They are doing a terrific job in getting as much product out the door. Any speculation that they could sell more, is just that, speculation. As far as people not finding iPods… well, there’s a bit of p.r.ing going on here. Apple Stores continue to have plenty of ’em as do most CompUSA and Best Buy has product constantly arriving. For any hot product at Holiday Season, there is always a supply shortage of some sort. If Apple was still in the manufacturing business, they wouldn’t have been able to get as much product into the marketplace. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Oh yes, both the regular iPod and mini were laughed at by many in the Apple “community” as too expensive and unnecessary. Now those same people are whining and complaining. Go figure.
Dang! It’s all Steve’s fault for making it WinDOZE compatible. Glad I got my wife one early.
Let’s face it Bill, you are crazy.
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ipod garage, what an atrocious website, and that palmer dood needs a clue…
i say 7 million! 8 millon, anyone, 8 million, do i hear 8?
hey bill how about 7 million? that number is bigger than 6, could apple do it?
I spelled out precisely why I thought Apple could sell six million iPods this quarter. You can agree or disagree with my reasoning, but at least I provided it in detail.
If you think Apple can hit seven or eight million then that’s great, but I’d like to hear what specifically you’re basing your predictions on. After all, bad math is better than no math at all.
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