“Nearly 100 million PCs are likely to be replaced this year, with 120 million being swapped out in 2005, according to data research firm Gartner released Thursday. The volume of replacements in the next two years will surpass the number of units replaced in the run-up to Y2K in 1998 and 1999, Gartner said. In 2004, replacement units will drive global shipments to 186.4 million–an increase of 13.6 percent over 2003,” Dinesh C. Sharma reports for CNET News.
“‘Our first-quarter results suggest the…replacement cycle that vendors have been anticipating for more than a year is under way,’ George Shiffler, principal analyst for Gartner’s client platforms research, said in a statement,” Sharma reports. “Gartner analysts said more than 30 percent of installed PCs are now at least three years old. Many of those machines run older versions of Windows operating systems, for which full technical support may not be available. This, they said, will play a major role in pushing sales of replacements. Strong economic growth in the United States, the Asia-Pacific region and Japan is also likely to boost sales of new PCs.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: How many of those 100 million will go from Windows to Mac OS X?
hopefully alot
some marketing would be nice tho
eh probably a few but not many.. rise and shine, most windows users have never touched a mac and have never seen os X..
the fact that 100 mill. pc’s are now out-of-date considering what most ppl do w them.. play games, chat to friends..means the marketshare myth is just gonna keep getting worse..
the “growth” of the pc market is fueled by crappy baseline models and exploding pc game requirements..egads.. thurrott must be thrilled
true, but it only takes one in a area to cause more to hop on the bandwagon
Come on Apple! Get some ‘in-your-face’ TV advertising out there!
Don’t be afraid to tell people to make a wise purchase decision.
Macintosh is what a computing experience should be!
The timing is interesting. See this article:
http://www.insideapple.com/article.php?id=38_0_1_0_M
Apple will have lots of nice new stuff available to replace these PCs, and the company’s profile is very high.
people interested in buyin’ peecees only care about one thing: the cheapest price, why do you think Dells are so popular?
I hope 50%… but I’ll even take 10%
Why apple could sell a lot of macs:
security
TCO
osX is better
Why they won’t:
Price
G4 processor speeds
emac is so 2002
G5 doesn’t run VPC
no ads
Apple should do absolutely everything it possibly can to take advantage of this. Offer free support for moving files over–offer a discount to people who “turn in” their old PCs at Apple Stores and buy a new mac…anything.
Yeah right… 80% of the 100 million users want Virtual PC? You are kidding me?
I agree with the rest though. People will slowly start putting two and two together. For example, Intel removed the clock speed from its processor’s name. They claim that the low clockspeed processors are as good as high clockspeed ones. The smart ones ( I think at least 10-20% of the 100 mil) will see this.
hairbo,
Why do you think Apple is working on .Mac with good amount of space and compatibility with Windows XP (and 2000?). If you have a minimum number of files, I am sure you can select the folders that you want to save to your .Mac account and then change to mac and get it back.
you want to keep something precious by making sure that only a few can afford it. If you were to discover a mine where you unearthed 1 billion carrot of diamond, diamond’s value will be equal to dust. So, keep the quantity of Macs in check and make sure it is valued!!
Now is the time for Apple to advertise OS X. Nuts and bolts stuff showing how easy it is to use. They should showcase the iLife suite and show how to download movies and photos, show how to edit movies and enhance photos, send photos in email, burn CDs and DVDs, etc. I think a big dynamic they should emphasize is digital photography cuz a lot of people are getting into this and don’t know computers very well. They should also drive home that it is easier to use by showing Stats on fewer keystokes for the same tasks.
I would like to see Apple at 10-20 percent market share. That would be plenty.
While I agree that Apple could be doing a lot more, PC’s are also VERY 2002 today as well if you haven’t noticed. Intel has been stagnated now for a good while with their processors and actually the G4/G5 have noticeably gained on them over the past 18 months.
When I walked into a typical store 18 months ago, the fastest P4 system I could buy was running at 3.06GHz, today it’s only increased to 3.4GHz or a measly 11%. Meanwhile PowerMacs are over 50% faster today than they were then and are also less expensive now as well.
What a perfect time to advertise Panther and the upcoming Tiger…free with the purchase of a new mac.
Drop the focus on the iPod at least for a moment and focus
on the Mac, which is why we are all here, and why the iPod exists at all.
Here’s another ad idea idea relating to this article. Have a split screen. On one side there’s a guy unpacking and setting up his new PC, and on the other side a guy unpacking and setting up his new Mac. Show a calendar date and go in one year increments for say 8 years. The guy with the PC changes computers every two years and is surrounded by a pile of discarded PCs, the Mac user is still using the same Mac, happy as a clam.
Apple’s marketshare is never going to improve much because PCs are replaced so often (unless they start making them really crappy).
Rob, I said emacs, the supposed entry level, were very 2002, and they are, with about half the speed at almost twice the price of the dell loss leader. And they look funny. It is nice that intel has stalled so that Macs can catch up, but, except for the G5’s, apple is still losing the numbers game. The next macophile arguement would be that speed doesn’t matter anyhow, since wp and mail are most of a computer’s task, but that minimalist view doesn’t seem to be catching on with the public:
http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/main_news.cfm?NewsID=8430
IT guy, I am not sure by what you meant by “80% of the 100 million users want Virtual PC”. I do know that I would need VPC to run the main program at my business. As far as your idea of 10-20% of those 100 million being macs…….apple makes and sells about 3.2 million computers a year. Asking them, with their poor record of supplying popular products, to triple or sextuple production seems a bit much doesn’t it? Maybe that is why they don’t bother to bring out new models…..it would be such a pain to make them!
How about an ad touting that: Apple, the originator of the digital hub, and still ahead of the pack of imitators. Doing it right!
No Joe, I just want an explanation of why you don’t seem to think that PCs are also quite stale when they’ve had virtually no innovation and no performance gains for going on 2 years now. They’re all running the same OS at virtually the same speed for the same price now that they were then. You want to give the “wintelophile” argument and single out eMacs only for some reason and throw out such wisdom as “they look funny”, when they are only a small percentage of Mac sales anyway. So explain to us how the Wintels themselves loss leaders or otherwise are doing any better now than they were in 2002. The fact is, if Apple had stayed as stagnate over the past 2 years as PCs in general have, you’d be pronouncing Apple’s death right about now.
I know for a fact that a lot of the computers that need to be replaced are in businesses. I work at a McRae’s department store, and 95% of the computers we use (not conunting cash registers) are at least 5 years old (many are even older). Oh, and I gotta take Rob’s side here. I have yet to meet anyone that uses a “killer” PC at home, except for the few gamers and a/v editers I know. Most people I know want something like a G5 or gaming PC, but they simply can’t afford them. And, I’ve used eMacs and the low-end Dells – the eMac is just as good as the Dell in performance (better when you consider not having to deal with all the crap of wintels). I think I’ll pay an extra $300 for the eMac.
Hey, I know at least one PC that needs to be replaced…
That is if Apple ever releases a PowerBook G5!
Sorry to take so long to respond Rob. And I am not sure where to start. I guess pc’s have stalled number wise over the past year, but that is like comparing formula 1 racers to daily drivers. It seems to me, now, that I can buy for $1000 a lot more wintel box than I could then. In fact now I can buy 64 bit architecture and every modern data storage and transfer hardware there is for that much. Two years ago $1000 didn’t go nearly as far. Meanwhile, the 2002 emac is very much the same as it was back then. Same for the imac. The g5 is wonderful, and pricey, and VPC is necessary for many business users.
As to your question about how wintel is doing better than apple, read the link I posted. Mac sales suck compared to wintel, and some parts of the line, g5, powerbook, emac/imac, suck a lot. That could be the result of a hugely stupid consumer base, poor offerings by apple, fud, or the complete lack of mac advertising, but it is a statistical fact, with which you can do what you want.
Apple would win any beauty contest ever conceived. That isn’t necessarily the point in business.
Lastly, unless apple comes up with a headless imac to take advantage of the friggin point of this thread, it will be obvious that they care nothing about sales, and, by extension, not much about the furtherence of macintosh.
Again, sorry I took a while to get back to you.
1) Apple should fix Panther before moving to 10.4. The security holes and stability problems Apple has had the last year are the result of the endless rewriting of the OS. Rushing stuff out before it is out is not a way to build a reputation (can you say late 10.2.x updates?). 10.1, 10.2, 10.3 each had MAJOR overhauls of basic parts of the OS. A little stability is in order.
2) Apple needs to release a roadmap for IT people making purchases.
3) Get some advertising for the Macintosh and OS X- SOON.
4) Apple needs a real enterprise division more than it needs a “digital devices” division.
Low-end Dells: Every Sunday, Dell has a full page ad in our local paper for a PC for $599(before rebate). That gets you a computer with 128 RAM, integrated video, and a CD-ROM. Yes, that’s right – only a CDROM. What a bargain.
Joe, I don’t know if there is a “hugely stupid consumer base”, but I do know they are uniformed, and only read the headlines. I work with people who couldn’t believe that Pepsi was “giving away” illegal song downloads, and think that Apple computers can’t handle digital photographs. And I work for a data processing company where everything is on PC’s.
Joe said:
“I do know that I would need VPC to run the main program at my business.”
Joe, lose the PC on your desktop and put it in a corner somewhere to run your business app. Your Mac can access the app on that box without any problems.
Microsoft has two packages worth using, a.) Office, b.) Microsoft Remote Desktop. The secret that Apple needs to promote more is that you can run your PC apps on your Mac without using VPC and at the speed the PC was capable of using MRD.
The other big benefit is that you can close every port on the PC except the one needed for communications between the PC and the Mac. Otherwise, the PC is secure and will never get virus infected from mail worms.
Try it out, it’s awesome.
cheers,
B