“Rosenblatt’s Jun Zhang sees iPhone XS inventory piling up, expects sharp production cuts,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Apple 3.0.

Our channel checks indicate iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max weekend sales are higher than iPhone X weekend sales. We believe this is mainly due to a better production ramp for the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max. However, our research suggests the iPhone XS order pipeline is very weak, resulting in leftover inventory of the iPhone XS…

Based on retail sales data and our estimates of production, we estimate a combined total of ~7 million units sold over the weekend. Our research suggests the iPhone XS max sold out over the weekend, while the iPhone XS still had some inventory left in various retail channels. We believe iPhone XS Max sales were about 4-5x iPhone XS sales over the weekend… Both the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max 64G are available for immediate shipment, while the iPhone XS Max 512G has a shipment wait time.

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Ooh, “channel checks” (i.e. looking at Apple Store Online and seeing what’s still available).

Everyone on earth expects iPhone Xs Max to outsell iPhone Xs which, due to the existence of the XR, has a remarkably small target market in comparison to Apple’s other new iPhones.

The Xs is a tough sell, especially to those of us who have iPhone X units and extra especially to those of us who always felt the X was a bit too small (narrow). We obviously want the Max.

As for everyone else, why would the hoi polloi choose the 5.8-inch iPhone Xs when they can get the 6.1-inch iPhone XR? They don’t know the difference between LCD and OLED, they have no idea what 3D Touch is, and it looks/works pretty much the same to them – plus it comes in colors (that they’ll immediately cover with a case; no matter, colors sell).

We have no idea who iPhone Xs is for. We’d be surprised if iPhone Xs even hits 10% of total iPhone sales. — MacDailyNews, September 17, 2018

How Apple can mitigate 6.1-inch iPhone XR cannibalization of 5.8-inch iPhone Xs – September 20, 2018
Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple Watch Series 4 pre-orders above expectations, 5.8-inch iPhone Xs seeing lackluster demand – September 17, 2018