Analyst: Apple’s 6.5-inch iPhone Xs Max sold out over weekend, 5.8-inch Xs orders ‘very weak’

“Rosenblatt’s Jun Zhang sees iPhone XS inventory piling up, expects sharp production cuts,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Apple 3.0.

Our channel checks indicate iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max weekend sales are higher than iPhone X weekend sales. We believe this is mainly due to a better production ramp for the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max. However, our research suggests the iPhone XS order pipeline is very weak, resulting in leftover inventory of the iPhone XS…

Based on retail sales data and our estimates of production, we estimate a combined total of ~7 million units sold over the weekend. Our research suggests the iPhone XS max sold out over the weekend, while the iPhone XS still had some inventory left in various retail channels. We believe iPhone XS Max sales were about 4-5x iPhone XS sales over the weekend… Both the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max 64G are available for immediate shipment, while the iPhone XS Max 512G has a shipment wait time.

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Ooh, “channel checks” (i.e. looking at Apple Store Online and seeing what’s still available).

Everyone on earth expects iPhone Xs Max to outsell iPhone Xs which, due to the existence of the XR, has a remarkably small target market in comparison to Apple’s other new iPhones.

The Xs is a tough sell, especially to those of us who have iPhone X units and extra especially to those of us who always felt the X was a bit too small (narrow). We obviously want the Max.

As for everyone else, why would the hoi polloi choose the 5.8-inch iPhone Xs when they can get the 6.1-inch iPhone XR? They don’t know the difference between LCD and OLED, they have no idea what 3D Touch is, and it looks/works pretty much the same to them – plus it comes in colors (that they’ll immediately cover with a case; no matter, colors sell).

We have no idea who iPhone Xs is for. We’d be surprised if iPhone Xs even hits 10% of total iPhone sales. — MacDailyNews, September 17, 2018

How Apple can mitigate 6.1-inch iPhone XR cannibalization of 5.8-inch iPhone Xs – September 20, 2018
Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple Watch Series 4 pre-orders above expectations, 5.8-inch iPhone Xs seeing lackluster demand – September 17, 2018


  1. As stated before, it’s for ME, a 6s plus owner- a slightly larger screen with higher resolution, faster processor, 4 times the storage, awesome camera all in a slightly SMALLER form factor.

    Also, I’m listening to women would have smaller hands. 🙂

  2. Fud
    Iphone xs very weak ?

    It showes october 4-8th availability ….
    how is that weak .. (xs max October 8th )

    Best sellers so far : Apple watch series 4…. iphone xs max, …..iphone xs

      1. Weed… u have a point…. . But im going by what got soldout soonest and git pushed back the farthest and has the longest wait…..
        Not necessarily the numbers. …… no one knows the actual numbers that were available or were sold except apple.

      1. Exactly right, TxUser!

        Until two weeks ago, Apple sold small form factor phones since the debut of the 3.5 inch iPhone in June 2007 (11 years).

        I LOVE MY SE and it is incredibly pocket powerful like no other. This XR and XS month apart release dance and comparable specs seems consumer ill advised.

        A larger phone with the some of the same specs and $250 less expensive, where is the logic in that?

        Here is my Dream Team THREE iPhone wish list. The XS for small, the XM for middle and the XL for large. All have edge to edge screens and add the year of release to the name.

        Like new SUVs the larger models come with better options. But operational, the underlying structure should be the SAME. Cover your eyes Jony, if the smaller model needs to be thicker and heavier — bring it on! Go back and weigh the weight of the debut phone and NO ONE COMPLAINED!

        Think of iPhones naming conventions 2019. The super MaxiS11? The XR211 and the XS211? As MDN points out repeatedly — nothing reliable and CONSISTENT. That’s their problem.

        My problem is you and I can’t buy a new Apple small form factor phone and have been discarded and rendered obsolete by Apple…

        1. Xr vs xs
          You pay 250 more for.. a much better screen, much better camera, 3dtouch, stainless sides… …
          those are the obviouse ones… im sure there are more differences.

          As for small form factor.. dont give up yet.
          Smaller x style may come soon… its just that the face id sys has to get shrunk down for it not to be too obtrusive on a smaller screen.
          Once they achieve that… they may reintroduce a smaller form factor x. 🤞🤞

  3. Waited an extra year for the Xs Max because I thought the X was smaller (narrow) than my HD size 7+. Got my Xs Max Friday via Xfinity Mobile FedEx. It’s actually slightly SMALLER than the Plus iPhones. So it FITS in my old VENA wallet case albeit blocking the telephoto lens and light. VENA is delivering a new Max case in October but not in Gold. Rose Gold Burgundy with black bumpers. Max is THICKER than Plus so this temporary case is definitely bulging.

  4. 7 Plus owner here. I went for the Xs because I wanted a smaller physical size while retaining the large display size of the Plus.

    Very happy so far. I don’t use my iPhone for watching videos, I have a 12.9” iPad Pro for that.

  5. ..I reckon this year will see a big drop off in sales. Last year with the X release 1 week after launch on line sales were pushing into December – 2 months. More may well have been produced but most likely theres a serious issues here over Apple hitting peak prices. Even an iPhone like the 7 or 8 is more than capable for most people – the market share that is now prepared to fork out $1500 is a small one. if im right the XR demand will slip shipping times in to December within days as people clamour for a cheaper unit – and apple will again risk holiday season for a key line.

    1. You’re ignoring supply side issues experienced last year which limited the number of Xes available close to launch and pushed out deliveries.
      Since we don’t know the extent of it nor how much production has been ramped up this year, using lead times to estimate sales is useless and wilfully ignorant if you’re an analyst.

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